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Fed Stays the Course, Cites a Pause in Growth

POSTED ON BY

As expected no policy changes were announced in the first FOMC meeting of the year. Today's FOMC policy statement looks very similar to the December statement. The same language was used regarding expectations of the federal funds rate:

the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored.

The new policy statement did note the recent weakness in the economy, but this was attributed to "transitory factors":

growth in economic activity paused in recent months, in large part because of weather-related disruptions and other transitory factors

This looks similar to what economists have been saying about today's GDP report. The negative GDP number for the last quarter was unexpected, but economists don't seem concerned. In this CNNMoney article, an economist was quoted as saying "The drag from defense spending and inventories is a one-off. The rest of the report is all encouraging."

With sluggish economic growth and the unemployment rate remaining high, we shouldn't expect any changes from the Fed. As we saw from the Fed last month, the unemployment rate isn't expected to fall below 6.5% until sometime in 2015. That means no Fed rate hikes until maybe 2015.

There are four new voting members at the FOMC for 2013. At the start of each new year, four regional presidents rotate into voting roles. One of those new members, Esther L. George (the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City), voted against the policy action. She was the lone dissenter. According to the FOMC statement:

[George] was concerned that the continued high level of monetary accommodation increased the risks of future economic and financial imbalances and, over time, could cause an increase in long-term inflation expectations.

This CNNMoney article has an interesting graphic showing how the voting FOMC members rank in terms of dovish or hawkish attitudes. Only George and James Bullard (president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ) are considered hawks. The other ten on the FOMC are considered doves.

Janet Yellen is one of the most dovish members. There is some expectation that Yellen will be nominated by President Obama to replace Bernanke as Fed Chairman in January 2014 (Bernanke isn't expected to want a third term). So I wouldn't hold my breath for the Fed becoming any more hawkish in the coming years.

The next two FOMC meetings are scheduled for March 19-20 and April 30/May 1. The March meeting will include the summary of economic projections and a press conference by Bernanke.



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Comments
53 Comments.
Comment #1 by Smokeboat (anonymous) posted on
Smokeboat
We have painted ourselves into the corner....we are considering puting down a second coat.

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Comment #3 by ytytyt posted on
ytytyt
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Dear Readers,

>> Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks
>> to foster maximum employment and price stability. The
>> Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation,
>> economic growth will proceed at a moderate pace and the
>> unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the
>> Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate.

Excellent! ... Unfortunately millions of our fellow Americans are still unemployed, and I am pleased that our public servants remain mindful of the dual mandate we have given them and are doing the needful to help decrease the unemployment.

>> The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic
>> and financial developments in coming months. If the outlook for the
>> labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will
>> continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities,
>> and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until such
>> improvement is achieved in a context of price stability. In determining
>> the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee
>> will, as always, take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of
>> such purchases.

Perfect! .... I'd expect the FOMC to use every tool at its disposal keeping into focus the price stability to achieve the desparately needed employment by millions. 

All in all I am pleased to see this statement from FOMC. 

As we've learned today, the GDP declined for the last quarter.  The pause in growth needs to be overcome, and FOMC's buying of MBS hopefully will be helpful.  Fortunately the inflation as measured by the BLS remains tame for now. I am sure that FOMC will act if/when the concern experessed by Ms George about future inflation comes about.  I guestimate that the long bonds will need to drop by more than 20% before such a concern will pose any sort if immediate threat. (And if that were to happen, most likely we will see the 5 year Certificates/CDs to go above 3.50% rather handily.)

Yours Truly,
Annonymous

 

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Comment #4 by ytytyt posted on
ytytyt
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Anonymous - #2,

>> The Fed will be personally responsible for the destruction of a generation.

Err ... The FOMC is a committee ... Voting memebers keep joining and leaving periodically ... What do you mean by a commitee being personally responsible?

>> .. at which point there will be blood in the streets and most likely war.

Really? ... Which will be two (or more) sides? ... Like Texas vs California?  ... Or Republicans Districts vs Illegal Aliens?  ... Or Gays vs Straights?  ... Or Employed vs Unemployed?  Or you have something benign in mind like severe difference of opinion and use of very harsh language?  ;-)

My view is quite different than yours!  I feel that the FOMC is ever mindful of its dual mandate and trying its level best to try to achieve the competing/conflicting mandates.

Yours Truly,
Annonymous

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Comment #7 by Kaight posted on
Kaight
I agree wholeheartedly with the first two posts.  This will end, but it will not end well.  The Fed cannot go on forever printing $85 billion/month of funny money without serious consequence.  For the math challenged, that's over a trillion bucks per year.

I don't welcome death and I'm not looking forward to it in the least.  But I hope I'm dead when the sh** hits the fan as it inevitably will.  Things are not going to be pleasant then in the formerly great USA.  Rely on this, though:  The fools responsible, from Bernanke on down, will never, ever, own up to their blunders.  NEVER!!!!!!!!

And finally, for anyone unaware, Janet Yellen (right out of San Francisco OMG!) is much worse than Bernanke.  She will guide us from the frying pan, directly into the fire!  But what difference does it make at this late date.  This all was over early last November.  American greatness is officially over.  We are operating today on $85B/month of fumes.

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Comment #8 by ytytyt posted on
ytytyt
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Dear Kaight - #7,

Mostly I disagree with you.

American greatness is far from over.  We have the only reserve currency in the world.  There is absolutely no other currency in sight that will come even close to being a credible alternative to our green-backs.

We lost our AAA rating, but our treasuries are sought after by China, Japan and others.  Surely America's days are not over.

...  After reading your rather pessimistic message I thought of the ad voiced by Clint Eastwood for super bowl "It's Halftime in America. And our second half is about to begin." ... I am very optimistic. 

Inflation targetting put forth by FOMC in last meeting, I believe is as close to the best as possible a solution, when the inflation comes our way.  BTW your assertion about FOMC members not owning up to their errors is utterly wrong!  ex-Chairman Greenspan owned up to his errors during the congressional hearing.

Yours Truly,
Annonymous

6
Comment #9 by Anonymous posted on
Anonymous
Where were all of you right wingers when Bush and Cheney declared that deficits did not matter? They spent all of the surplus (that Clinton and those socialists built up) on their useless wars and put us in this mess that all of you clowns keep trying to blame on Obama. When will you ever learn, when will you ever learn?? Just wave your flags and vote to eliminate taxes on the rich so that they will give us a few crumbs and minimum wage jobs.

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Comment #10 by Shorebreak posted on
Shorebreak
Why is any of this surprising? The top ten percent have 81% to 94% of stocks, bonds, trust funds, and business equity, and almost 80% of non-home real estate. Since financial wealth is what counts as far as the control of income-producing assets, we can say that just 10% of the people own the United States of America.

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Comment #11 by Anonymous posted on
Anonymous
This will go on for years.  The gov doesn't know how to stop what it starts.

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Comment #12 by Anonymous posted on
Anonymous
I might agree with you, Shorebreak, accept none of this is surprising.  And I don't think the top 10% "own" the U.S.A. but I would say the top 10% CONTROL the whole country.  Money is power and our political system is too corrupt to change anything.  Unfortunately, we as a once great nation are on an irreversible down hill slide.   

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Comment #13 by Anonymous posted on
Anonymous
You forgot to mention that the federal government debt will explode once interest rates begin to rise and then this house of cards collapses!

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Comment #14 by lou posted on
lou
Some quotes from our prescient Chairman of the Fed before the sh*t hit the fan in Oct of 2008:

 

BERNANKE: Well, I guess I don't buy your premise. It's a pretty unlikely possibility. We've never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis. So what I think is more likely is that house prices will slow, maybe stabilize: might slow consumption spending a bit. I don't think it's going to drive the economy too far from its full employment path, though.

 

BERNANKE: You can see some types of speculation: investors turning over condos quickly. Those sorts of things you see in some local areas. I'm hopeful — I'm confident, in fact, that the bank regulators will pay close attention to the kinds of loans that are being made, and make sure that underwriting is done right. But I do think this is mostly a localized problem, and not something that's going to affect the national economy.

 

BERNANKE: We expect moderate growth going forward. We believe that if the housing sector begins to stabilize, and if some of the inventory corrections still going on in manufacturing begin to be completed, that there's a reasonable possibility that we'll see some strengthening in the economy sometime during the middle of the new year.

Our assessment is that there's not much indication at this point that subprime mortgage issues have spread into the broader mortgage market, which still seems to be healthy. And the lending side of that still seems to be healthy.

 

Bernanke: The global economy continues to be strong, supported by solid economic growth abroad. U.S. exports should expand further in coming quarters. Overall, the U.S. economy seems likely to expand at a moderate pace over the second half of 2007, with growth then strengthening a bit in 2008 to a rate close to the economy's underlying trend.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Comment #15 by ytytyt posted on
ytytyt
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Dear lou - #14,

So these quotes are from the time period before October 2008?

... Right ... So that's when the occupant of the White House was a Republican, who had appointed the FOMC chairman whose quotes you've given above. :-)

Oh yes ... and which party was controlling the Senate that was responsible for confirming the Chairman, when he was appointed by the Republican President?

BTW, nice quotes ... Just goes about to show that this Republican appointee is a mere human ... and like all humans cannot predict the future with any level of accuracy!

Yours Truly,
Annonymous

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Comment #17 by ytytytyt posted on
ytytytyt
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Dear Anonymous - #16,

No ... I feel that our Soldiers who train for 18 hours, go to war when ordered, fight for whatever is the duration of the tour, sweat, bleed, lose limbs, and come home and get honorably dis-charged should not be umemployed.  I feel that each and every one of them should get a job that puts them above the poverty line.

I feel that any action that FOMC takes that helps the unemployed, and conforms to the dual mandate is necessary. I feel that FOMC should fight the inflation after every last one of the fighers who has severed for America and wants a job, is employed. 

That's what I feel ... Truly ... :-)

Yours Truly,
Annonymous

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Comment #19 by ytytytyt posted on
ytytytyt
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Dear Comrade - #18,

Alas ... There were no points being made ... Merely feelings were getting expressed ... The thing with the feelings is that it is a synonym for emotion ... So don't be surprised my dear Comrade, if you feel  any emotion in there ... I assure you it is not an accident ... Truly!

It is a sad fact that those who have served, are not getting the jobs they desperately need  ... So once again whatever FOMC can do to help the unemployed (within the boundries of the dual mandate) will be appreciated ... Truly!


Yours Truly,
Anonymous

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Comment #20 by lou posted on
lou
"and like all humans cannot predict the future with any level of accuracy!"

I agree with this statement, which is why I take with a grain of salt anything Bernanke says regarding his ability to unwind the Fed's balance sheet wihout any adverse consequences. The fact is that they are playing Russian roulette with the Amerian economy and don't have a clue of what the long term consequences will be because of these unprecedented monetary policies.

 

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Comment #22 by Anonymous posted on
Anonymous
Yours Truly......fair enough. We can agree somewhat. But the only way to get people jobs is capitalism and free markets.....not government handouts. If history has taught us anything.....Communism does not work. And sadly

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Comment #24 by Anonymous posted on
Anonymous
Hey #21.......Nobody is forcing people to work at walmart......if they don't like the wage the can work somewhere else.....or start their own business where they pay all their workers $100,000/ year. That's the beauty of freedom. Something you liberals know nothing about.

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Comment #25 by ytytytyt posted on
ytytytyt
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Dear lou - #20,

Great ... So looks like we are in agreement ... somewhat.

Russian roulette with the Amerian economy is quite catchy :-) but as I pointed out before, America's currency is the only reserve currency with no other viable alternative.  Also the major economies are buying up America's debt insturument (Treasuries) with no let-up.  Surely I understand if you are taking the FOMC statements with a grain of salt.  It is prudent to look around and check/double-check if these statements are making sense.  With the Treasury Bonds so high, and yields so low, we have a long way to go before the inflation becomes a concern.  If/when the long bonds fall by 10/15/20 percent, if/when the 6-month LIBOR rises and 30 year mortgages head above 5% will be when the inflation may become an issue.

Can America experience what Germany did after defeat in WW - II ... Or can America experience what Zimwabwe experienced?  ... Yes ... In theory it is possible ... But I don't think it is probable in practice.  (And surely I understand if you disagree.)

Yours Truly,
Anonymous

5
Comment #26 by Anonymous posted on
Anonymous
Walmart employs 2.2 million people......gives millions of shoppers a huge choice of items at low prices......invests in local economies......gives billions to charity.....and pays billions more in taxes. and yet......according to liberals......walmart is the evil one. I guess disgusting hippee communes can provide us all with all these features instead. You think those freaks are going to pay people well??? Yes....you liberals have all the answers. So smart!

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Comment #28 by ytytytyt posted on
ytytytyt
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Dear Anonymous - #22,

Our cold-war warriors trained their whole life to fight against the Soviets.  So if you bear even a slightest  though that our senior soldiers are communist, then you are mistaken.  (In fact, imposing some sort of party afiliation without knowing the truth is a mistake.)

Now coming to the government hand-outs.  Are you by any chance implying that benefits like GI Bill, Veterans Benefits are hand-out?  I hope not.  (These are the laws of the land.  Unless we - the people -  change them, they stand.)

I consider the US Treasury, FOMC, and SEC as the institutes that assure smooth functioning of our free markets, of which I am a participant.

BTW did you notice the pledge made by Mr Simon, that Walmart will be employing 100,000 veterans? ... There is no way I'd ever consider Walmart evil. ... You are imagining things.

Yours Truly,
Anonymous

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Comment #33 by ytytytyt posted on
ytytytyt
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Dear Comrade #30,

Err ... which government are you referring to when you claim that it will steal? ... Surely you mean the one that is for/of/by the people, don't you? ... Surely you mean the one that was sworn-in this very month, don't you? ... Surely you mean the one that was elected by the Americans in last quarter, don't you? ... Now if you have a problem with this government, and that you did not vote for it, and that your party lost this election, then by definition you are a loser. ... Get it comrade?  :-)

Yours Truly,
Anonymous

2
Comment #35 by Anonymous posted on
Anonymous
Yours Truly,

You always post the same thing. You have already said that. Come up with some new stuff. You seem like a smart guy.

And by the way......You think the government and the people have to be the same thing? Hmmmmmm.....I wonder. Were the "government" and "the people" the same in the USSR?  You know.....the country that murdered millions of its citizens and stole the freedom of the ones they didn't kill?  How about Cuba? China? Cambodia? North korea? One in the same.....government and people?

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Comment #36 by ytytytyt posted on
ytytytyt
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Dear loser Anonymous - #35,

Well then what of your assertion that government will steal?  If people and government are one and the same, then there cannot be any stealing. Before I said that you are imagining things ... I must say you are hallucinating even more.  Get back to your senses and make some rational points.  I know ... I know ... you lost in November ... Must wait for 4 more years ... Guess it must be hard for you to focus for manking any sensible points ...

Yours Truly,
Anonymous

4
Comment #37 by Anonymous posted on
Anonymous
Yours Truly......A few weeks ago you said the same thing to Paoli when she was having one of her freak-outs. I did not imagine that.  How did you get to be a liberal? What a shame....you seem like an intelligent person. Oh well......I guess we can agree on our concern for our veterans. I think you are sincere on that. Did you serve?

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Comment #40 by Roush posted on
Roush
 Sorry #38, but your bitterness is quite telling. If it would make you feel better, feel free to tell us your sorry tale.

5
Comment #41 by Anonymous posted on
Anonymous
Roush-Well said. Liberals are so full of hate and anger. They blame everyone but themselves for their problems. they are pathetic. Funny.....I asked him earlier about Walmart.....about how if someone does not like the wage they can leave....but no response. This idiot thinks it's Walmarts job to take care of everyone. Where is it written that any company has to do anything other than pay someone for their labor??? I love Walmart. Low prices.....huge selection. And if you work there and don't like it....leave. Start your own business where you pay your employees millions.

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Comment #43 by ytytytyt posted on
ytytytyt
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Dear Anonymous - #37,

Okay ... we can agree that FOMC's actions will help millions who served, and are not finding job at the present time.

Yours Truly,
Anonymous

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Comment #44 by ytytytyt posted on
ytytytyt
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Dear Readers,

I appreciate the pledge made by Walmart this month.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/01/15/wal-mart-hire-100000-veterans/1835397/

Yours Truly,
Anonymous

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Comment #45 by Anonymous posted on
Anonymous
Liberalism: The philosophy of the terminally stupid (as proven CLEARLY in this thread).

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Comment #46 by Anonymous posted on
Anonymous
The foolish statements of "Yours Truly" remind me very much of the statements made by Rudolf E.A. Havenstein, who was the President of the German Reichsbank during the Weimar hyperinflation period. Among other claims he made, during the period from 1919 to 23, was that the German central bank needed to buy more government bonds (QE) because the country did not have enough currency, that the bank needed to stimulate the German economy, that the nation owed war veterans jobs, et. al.  Read about this man, and the statements he made during and before the hyperinflation, and it will be deja vu. Haverstein caused the destruction of the German financial system, and wiped out the German middle class, all in the interest of "helping". He is the single biggest reason Hitler was eventually able to take power in open elections in which a financially shell-shocked population participated. Given what the Fed is now doing, it is a worthwhile reading assignment. The Federal Reserve is not doing anything new or novel. It is simply doing exactly what the Reichsbank did, during the early years leading to the hyperinflation.

As for Bernanke, it is true that he is just a flawed human being who does not really understand economics very well, having had no practical experience, other than that of an ivory tower. But, to properly run the monetary policy of the USA, we need someone much more capable than the average person. His foolish statements, per-2008, illustrate the fact that his current statements are, no doubt, just as foolish, or more so. He now claims that there is no inflationary pressure. But, in truth, the inflation rate is already 10%, when calculated according to the pre-1982 government formula, and that is the only way to compare now to the 1970s. They called the 1970s the "Great Inflation" Era, and, yet, inflation rates, when calculated in the same manner as back then, are not very much below the peark year and top inflation rates of that era. Inflation, this time around, is going to go much higher than 14%, however.  We are going to see triple digit inflation this time around.

 

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Comment #47 by Anonymous posted on
Anonymous
Let us also note that foreign investors continued to buy the 1920s German mark until near the very end of the hyoerinflation, just as foreigners continue to buy the US dollar and its bond derivatives. The foolish conviction that, somehow, a major trading nation will always find a way out of its problems was endemic during the early 1920s, especially in the USA. That is the same foolishness that prevails today, among the many people who think that the US dollar cannot collapse because it is considered the main "reserve" currency. Indeed, there were more worthless German marks, and German bonds, floating around in 1920s America than there were in Germany!  See, Americans With Marks Out of Luck, Cable and Associated Press, Los Angeles Times, 15 Nov 1924  Investors just refused to accept reality until the very end, just as they refuse to accept the pending collapse of the US dollar, which will be the inevitable result of the ill-conceived policies of the Federal Reserve.

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Comment #51 by ytytytyt posted on
ytytytyt
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Dear Anonymous - #49,

All right ... Your hallucinations are getting better and better ... Car that breaks down ... Bought wrong stocks ... Wow! :-)

How about you start imagining that actually you've won!  How about you start imagining that actually Mr Cain is the President of the USA or maybe Mr Perry? ... Maybe that will make you feel better!  If if does not ... well then you always have a stand by of some more hallucinations.

The fact though is that you were a loser in 2008, and a rather sour loser in 2012!  :-)

Yours Truly,
Anonymous

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Comment #54 by ytytytyt posted on
ytytytyt
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Dear Anonymous - #53,

Wow ... so you decided to hookup with loser comrade #49 of yours ... Great! ;-)

Yours Truly,
Anonymous

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Comment #55 by ytytytyt posted on
ytytytyt
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Dear Anonymous - #46,

>> We are going to see triple digit inflation this time around.

Such certainty about the future (!) especially after agreeing that humans cannot predict future with any degree of certainty sounds quite silly. ... Anyways what time is "this time"?  2013? 2014? 2015? ... When?

Assuming that you surpass Nostradamus, tell us what you are going to do about it?  What are you you going to do since you are so sure that our greenbacks are going to collapse and we are going to see triple digit inflation?

Are you merely going to rant about it, or do you have something that will protect, nay benefit, you when US Dollar collapses? ...  Are you buying trucklods of Euros?  ... Or maybe are you waiting for new Greek drachma to begin circulation? ;-)

Yours Truly,
Anonymous

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Comment #58 by ytytyt posted on
ytytyt
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Dear Comrade - #57,

Forget the USSR or North Korea.  I have the USA, with its greenback! :-)

Judging by your posts, seems certain that you would have cried the entire night in Novmber 2012 ... did you?  Did you repeat it on Jan 20 2013 when the President was sworn-in in private? And to rub it it, when he was sworn in once again in public the next day?  :-)  ... Must have been hard on you ... Was it?

Its a pity Comrade ... now that you've lost the USA, what are you going do besides being sour for next 4 years?

Yours Truly,
Anonymous

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Comment #60 by ytytyt posted on
ytytyt
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Dear Comrade #57,

You forgot many things ... Social Security Number, License #, Date of Birth, Finger Prints, Retinal Scan, Voice Print, DNA sample ... Are you certain all that is not necessary? ... :-) :-) :-)

BTW, I inquired what are you going to do now that you've lost the USA, beside being sour the next 4 years and maybe beyond that? ... Well Comrade?  Did you foerget to answer? ... Oh yes, and what was the brand of tissues you used to wipe those tears on Jan 20/21?  :-)

Yours Truly,
Anonymous

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Comment #62 by ytytyt posted on
ytytyt
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Dear Comrade #61,

Aha ... so do you or don't you plan to exile yourself from USA, now that you've lost it? ... Well?

And you don't plan to stop using greenbacks either ... Right!

Alas ... my dear Comrade, you're now without a country and without any currency ... Pity!

Yours Truly,
Anonymous

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Comment #64 by ytytyt posted on
ytytyt
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Dear Comrade #63,

Our military?  Our veterans? ... Would that be your Red Army Comrade or maybe Peoples Army?

Are you by chance referring to the armed forces commanded by Commander-in-chief Obama?  ... whose inaguartion caused you some pain two days in row this month?  :-)

Are you referring to the army that gets paid in greenbacks?  Or are you referring to the army that gets paid in Roubles Comrade?  Or maybe Renminbi? ... Which one?

Yours Truly,
Anonymous

 

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Comment #68 by Anonymous posted on
Anonymous
HA! Snippy.....I like it!  Or just loser. I bet he's like "Milton" in the movie 'Office Space'.  Love that movie! But Milton is probably much better looking than Yours Truly. You can tell he's not exactly a ladies' man. I'm guessing #65 is no catch either.

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Comment #73 by ytytytyt posted on
ytytytyt
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Dear Loser #68,

Keep up your hallucination.  It was Car and Stock before.  Now it Milto.  We want more!

BTW ... what's bothering you ... That you are a loser of 2012? ... I guess the reality is bothering you! ... Perhaps the images of the presidential ball we had?  ... Well it was quite a "ball" ... Sorry you were in pain ... :-)

But let me know stop you ... Tell us about more of your hallucinations.  ... Quite entertaining!

Yours Truly,
Anonymous

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Comment #75 by ytytytyt posted on
ytytytyt
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Dear Loser Comrade 71, 72,

Hey loser of of the year ... keep going ... We have Milton ... what next Comrade ... ? 

Yours Truly,
Anonymous

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Comment #79 by Anonymous posted on
Anonymous
Look at yt with his consistent feeble 3-4 votes from his multiple aliases being destroyed by REAL Americans, Soooo pathetic. Quick yt, create more aliases to try and look credible. rotflmao

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Comment #80 by Anonymous posted on
Anonymous
#79.......Awesome!!. Yt will show  again......he can't help himself. He's one of those liberal worms that needs to get the last word.  Plus he has no life and nothing better to do. I'm convinced the character "Milton" in 'Office Space' was based on his life.

1
Comment #81 by Nipped by the Fed (anonymous) posted on
Nipped by the Fed
Ken, this is becoming a mess.  This used to be an interesting site.  Now mostly useless banter from the likes of yt.

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Comment #82 by Anonymous posted on
Anonymous
I am very surprised it has been left to go on this long!

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