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Ken Tumin founded the Bank Deals Blog in 2005 and has been passionately covering the best deposit deals ever since. He is frequently referenced by The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and other publications as a top expert, but he is first and foremost a fellow deal seeker and member of the wonderful community of savers that frequents DepositAccounts.

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Survey of the Best CD Rates for January 3, 2014

POSTED ON BY

Since my last weekly survey, Treasury yields have gone up some. Yesterday, the 10-year Treasury yield has reached 3.00%. As reported by Bloomberg:

Treasury yields traded at almost the highest level since 2011 as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the headwinds that have held back the U.S. economy may be abating, leaving the country poised for faster growth.

Perhaps that’s why PenFed decided to offer such a great deal with its 3.04% 5-year CD. That deal has been extended through January. One year from now, PenFed may be glad it attracted these deposits at a 3.04% APY. Depositors, however, may be regretting buying these CDs if long-term rates do go up substantially. But as we learned at the last Fed meeting, the Fed is intent to keep its federal funds rate low for a long time even after the economy has demonstrated strength with lower unemployment rates.

For CD rates, there weren’t many changes over the holidays. For long-term CDs, it’s hard to get excited about anything other than PenFed’s 3.04% APY 5-year CD. The next best 5-year CD rate available nationwide at a bank is 2.16% APY at EverBank. That has held for the last two weeks. EverBank did raise its 4-year CD rate from 1.59% to 1.68% APY.

Most of the changes involved the end of CD specials. For nationwide deals, American Heritage FCU ended its special 5-year CD that had a 2.10% APY.

Another change that I made to the tables is some pruning. I don’t want these tables to get too big. They’re suppose to be just a sample of the best deals. The best deals aren’t always the ones with the highest rates. I factor in other features like add-on capability and early withdrawal penalty. That’s one thing that differentiates these tables from our main CD rate tables.

Local CD Deals

In addition to the end of American Heritage FCU’s 5-year special, local CD specials ended at HomeBanc in Florida, BBCN Bank in California and Regal Financial Bank in Washington State.

One big rate drop occurred on January 1st at Bayer Heritage FCU which is headquartered in WV but has branches in several states. Its 5-year CD yield fell from 2.40% to 2.15% and its 4-year CD yield fell from 2.15% to 1.89%.

On the positive side, Wright-Patt Credit Union of Ohio increased its 6-year CD yield from 2.45% to 2.51%.

Three new local deals that I added this week include a 2.10% 5-year CD at Dime Savings Bank in NYC, a 1% 7-month CD at Washington Federal in several Western states, and a 1.26% 1-year CD at South Florida FCU.

Long-Term CD Break Strategy

For the short-term CDs in my lists, you might notice CDs with the note "5-year CD closed after X years". These take into account the yield after the early withdrawal penalty is applied.

If you want to compare the effective yields of other CDs after the early withdrawal penalties, please refer to our CD early withdrawal penalty calculator.

The risks of planning for early withdrawals of long-term CDs were highlighted by the deposit agreement change at Ally. The risks have also been seen at credit unions which have raised the early withdrawal penalties on existing CDs. I have more details in this blog post.

Note About the CD Survey

As I described in my rate table overview, you can use our CD rate tables to find the best rates for both nationally available CDs and local CDs. This CD survey blog posts are intended to highlight nationwide CD deals that may not be apparent in the tables. For example, I'll include the post-penalty yields of a few long-term CDs.

The CD survey blog posts are also intended to highlight the local CD deals that are available in large metro areas. There are many high CD rates, but most of these are at small banks in rural areas or at small credit unions with very narrow fields of membership. In these local CD surveys, my focus is on local CD deals that are in big cities or that are available in large areas of a state.

Yields Accurate as of January 3, 2014

Under 1-Year CD Rates

InstitutionRatesNotes
Communitywide Federal Credit Union2.00% ($50K max) 6-mo special CD w/active chkaccount review
EverBank1.10% checking/MMA intro 6-month rate ($100K/$50K max)account review
Seacoast Commerce Bank1.10% ($50K min) 10-month CD
Seacoast Commerce Bank1.00% ($50K min) MMArate guaranteed to 9/30/14
Xceed Financial Credit Union1.00% 7-month CD
Connexus Credit Union1.00% 6-month CDw/active chk
Doral Direct0.91% 9-month CDaccount review
Bank5 Connect0.90% 6-month CDNot available to MA & RI residents
CapitalSource Bank0.90% ($10K) 6-month CD special
Doral Direct0.87% 6-month CDaccount review
Ally Bank0.87% 11-month No-Penalty CDsee account review

Noteworth Local Deals

InstitutionRatesRegion
Suntide Credit Union1.10% 6-month CDCorpus Christi, TX metro
Doral Bank NY1.00% 6-month CDNYC
Washington Federal1.00% 7-month CDAZ, ID, NM, NV, OR, TX, UT, WA
Capital One Bank1.00% savings acct w/1yr rate lockParts of TX, NY, NJ, MD, VA and DC

1-Year CD Rates

InstitutionRatesNotes
Pentagon Federal Credit Union1.11% (2.22% 4-year CD closed after 1 year)see review & risks
Melrose Credit Union1.10% 1-year CD
AloStar Bank of Commerce1.10% 1-year CD
Connexus Credit Union1.10% 1-year CDw/active chk
CIT Bank1.05% ($25K min)add-on & bump-up 1-year CD
DollarSavingsDirect1.05% 1-year CD
GE Capital Retail Bank1.05% ($25K min) 1-year CDFormerly MetLife

Noteworthy Local Deals

InstitutionRatesRegion
Suntide Credit Union1.50% 1-year CDCorpus Christi, TX metro
Gulf Coast Federal Credit Union1.50% 12-month CDCorpus Christi, TX metro
South Florida Federal Credit Union1.26% 1-year CDSouth Florida
LOMTO Federal Credit Union1.20% 1-year CDparts of New York City
Doral Bank NY1.20% 1-year CDNYC
HAB Bank1.15% 1-year CDSouthern California
Beal Bank1.11% 1-year CDSoutheast FL
HAB Bank1.10% 1-year CDNYC metro

18-month CD Rates

Pentagon Federal Credit Union1.48% (2.22% 4-year CD closed after 18 months)see review & risks
Xceed Financial Credit Union1.25% 19-month CD
Ally Bank1.16% (1.60% 5-year CD closed after 18 months w/new ewp)see review & risks
AloStar Bank of Commerce1.15% 18-month CD
GE Capital Retail Bank1.15% 15-month CD specialFormerly MetLife

Noteworthy Local Deals

InstitutionRatesRegion
Gulf Coast Federal Credit Union1.65% 18-month CDCorpus Christi, TX metro
University of Iowa Community Credit Union1.25% 18-month CD specialmany Iowa counties
NEFCU1.25% 20-month CDLong Island, NY
Doral Bank NY1.25% 18-month CDNYC

2-Year CD Rates

InstitutionRatesNotes
Pentagon Federal Credit Union1.67% (2.22% 4-year CD closed after 2 years)see review & risks
Pentagon Federal Credit Union1.52% (3.04% 7/5-year CD closed after 2 years)see review & risks
Barclays1.50% (2.00% 5-year CD closed after 2 years)see review & risks
Pentagon Federal Credit Union1.41% 2-year CD
Melrose Credit Union1.36% 2-year CD
Ally Bank1.27% (1.60% 5-year CD closed after 2 years w/new ewp)see review & risks
Connexus Credit Union1.30% 2-year CDw/active chk
AloStar Bank of Commerce1.25% 2-year CD
Bank5 Connect1.25% add-on 2-year CDnot available to MA & RI residents
CIT Bank1.20% ($25K min) add-on & bump-up 2-year CD

Noteworthy Local Deals

InstitutionRatesRegion
Suntide Credit Union1.90% 2-year CDCorpus Christi, TX metro
Gulf Coast Federal Credit Union1.85% 2-year CDCorpus Christi, TX metro
NavyArmy Community Credit Union1.70% ($100K) 1.40% ($1K) 2-year CDCorpus Christi, TX metro
Doral Bank NY1.45% 2-year CDNYC
LOMTO Federal Credit Union1.45% 2-year CDparts of New York City
BrightStar Credit Union1.25% 23-month CD (+0.25% w/chk relationship)parts of Southeast FL

3-Year CD Rates

InstitutionRatesNotes
Wilshire State Bank2.28% 3-year installment savings account w/auto xfers, $100K maxaccount review
Pentagon Federal Credit Union2.03% (3.04% 7/5-year CD closed after 3 years)see review & risks
Pentagon Federal Credit Union2.02% 3-year CD
Connexus Credit Union1.75% 3-year CD w/active chk
Barclays1.67% (2.00% 5-year CD closed after 3 years)see review & risks
Melrose Credit Union1.61% 3-year CD
Intervest National Bank1.45% 3-year CD
Bank5 Connect1.18% (average apy) limited no-penalty 3-year CDnot available to MA & RI residents

Noteworthy Local Deals

InstitutionRatesRegion
NavyArmy Community Credit Union2.05% ($100K) 1.75% ($1K) 3-year CDCorpus Christi, TX metro
Spokane Teachers Credit Union (STCU)2.02% ($25K) 30-month CDWA State & parts of ID
Gulf Coast Federal Credit Union2.02% 3-year CDCorpus Christi, TX metro
LOMTO Federal Credit Union1.60% 3-year CDparts of New York City
Doral Bank NY1.60% 3-year CDNYC
Department of Commerce FCU1.55% 3-year CDWashington DC

4-Year CD Rates

InstitutionRatesNotes
Pentagon Federal Credit Union2.28% (3.04% 7/5-year CD closed after 4 years)see review & risks
Pentagon Federal Credit Union2.22% 4-year CD
Melrose Credit Union1.86% 4-year CD
Barclays1.75% (2.00% 5-year CD closed after 4 years)see review & risks
CIT Bank1.75% ($100K) 1.65% ($1K) 4-year CD
Nationwide Bank1.72% ($100K) 1.67% ($500) 4-year CD
Andrews Federal Credit Union1.71% 4-year CD
GE Capital Retail Bank1.70% ($100K) 1.50% ($2K) 4-year CDFormerly MetLife
Communitywide Federal Credit Union1.70% 4-year CDaccount review
EverBank1.68% 4-year CD
Barclays1.65% 4-year CD
Intervest National Bank1.65% 4-year CD
Ally Bank1.30% Raise-Your-Rate 4-year CD

Noteworthy Local Deals

InstitutionRatesRegion
Bank of Utica2.25% 4-year CDCentral New York
HarborOne Bank2.00% 4-year CDNew England
Institution For Savings2.00% 4-year CDparts of MA
Bayer Heritage Federal Credit Union1.89% 4-year CDparts of WV, OH & SC
Department of Commerce FCU1.80% 4-year CDWashington DC
MidFirst Direct1.75% 4-year CDAR, AZ, CA, FL, MO, NH, NV, NY, OK, TX, and WY
LOMTO Federal Credit Union1.75% 4-year CDparts of New York City
Police and Fire Federal Credit Union1.75% 4-year CDPennsylvania
HAPO Community Credit Union1.70% 4-year CDall of Washington State
Doral Bank NY1.65% 4-year CDNYC
Fifth Third Bank1.50% 4-year CD specialseveral eastern and midwestern states

5-Year CD Rates

InstitutionRatesNotes
Pentagon Federal Credit Union3.04% 5-year CD
Pentagon Federal Credit Union2.43% (3.04% 7-year CD closed after 5 years)see review & risks
Stanford Federal Credit Union2.27% ($100K) 5-year CD, requires chk w/ddaccount review
EverBank2.16% 5-year CD
iGObanking.com2.15% 5-year CD
Melrose Credit Union2.12% 5-year CD
CIT Bank2.05% ($100K) 1.85% ($1K) 5-year CD
GE Capital Retail Bank2.05% ($100K) 2.00% ($25K) 5-year CDFormerly MetLife
State Bank of India - New York2.05% 5-year CD
GE Capital Bank2.01% 5-year CD
Barclays2.00% 5-year CD
Fidelity New Issue Brokered CD1.90% 5-year non-callable CDissued by GE Capital Retail Bank

Noteworthy Local Deals

InstitutionRatesNotes
Credit Union West3.20% (IRA $50K) 2.95% (non-IRA $50K) 5-year CDPhoenix metro
Bank of Utica2.50% 5-year CDCentral New York
American Airlines Credit Union2.47% 5-yr/1.46% 2.5-yr CD ladderlimited membership
Progressive Credit Union2.32% 5-year CD (NYC with unique FOM)account review
MidFirst Direct2.25% 5-year CDAR, AZ, CA, FL, MO, NH, NV, NY, OK, TX, and WY
BBVA Compass2.25% (w/relationship checking) 2.00% (w/o relation) 5-year CDparts of AL, AZ, CA, CO, FL, NM and TX
Bayer Heritage Federal Credit Union2.15% 5-year CDparts of WV, OH & SC
Dime Savings Bank2.10% 5-year CDNew York
Department of Commerce FCU2.10% 5-year CDWashington DC

Over 5-Year CD Rates

InstitutionRatesRegion
Fidelity New Issue Brokered CD3.30% 10-year non-callable CDissued by CIT Bank
Pentagon Federal Credit Union3.04% 7-year CD
Fidelity New Issue Brokered CD2.70% 7-year non-callable CDissued by Comenity Capital FOA World FCB
Apple Federal Credit Union2.50% 10-year CD
Apple Federal Credit Union2.10% 7-year CD
Intervest National Bank2.07% ($95K) 2.05% ($2.5K) 10-year CD
GE Capital Bank2.05% 6-year CD

Noteworthy Local Deals

InstitutionRatesRegion
Hutchinson Credit Union3.15% ($250K) 3.10% ($100K) 3.05% ($25K) 10-year CDKansas
PeoplesChoice Credit Union3.04% 10-year CDYork and Cumberland Counties of Maine
Frick Tri-County Federal Credit Union3.00% 10-year CDparts of Western PA
SACU2.80% ($90K) 2.75% ($10K) 10-year CDSan Antonio, TX
Dollar Bank2.75% 10-year CDPittsburgh and Cleveland
MidFirst Direct2.75% 7-year CDAR, AZ, CA, FL, MO, NH, NV, NY, OK, TX, and WY
Franklin Federal Savings Bank2.73% 7-year CDRichmond, VA metro
Frick Tri-County Federal Credit Union2.50% 8-year CDparts of Western PA
MidFirst Bank2.70% 7-year CDAZ and OK
Wright-Patt Credit Union2.51% ($100K) 2.41% ($500) 6-year CDUS gov military and civilian personnel, Parts of OH
Hutchinson Credit Union2.50% ($250K) 2.40% ($100K) 2.30% ($25K) 6-year CDKansas
Franklin Federal Savings Bank2.42% 6-year CDRichmond, VA metro
SACU2.30% ($100K) 2.25% ($10K) 7-yearSan Antonio, TX

Note: All rates listed above are Annual Percentage Yields (APY) which factor in compounding.


  Tags: CD rates

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Comments
34 Comments.
Comment #1 by Anonymous posted on
Anonymous
Deposit rates will rise very little due to (a)increased global demand for Treasuries as other governments keep their rates even lower than the U.S. and (b) CD rates are not real-time correlated with Treasury rate increases (e.g. compare Treasury yields over the past year with the CD rates on these weekly surveys). 

7
Comment #2 by Anonymous posted on
Anonymous
The Federal Reserve is an entirely corrupt entity that takes its orders from a tiny group of international casino banksters headquartered in NYC and London.

QE and ultra-low rate policy was NOT undertaken to help the overall economy. The primary purpose was to help those banks, who had become large net debtors as a result of nepotistic hiring practices that resulted high levels of incompetence and consequent deep losses from trading stocks, bonds, commodities, and, most importantly, derivatives. The secondary purpose of QE is to fund our bankrupt government.

Eventually, the Fed will lose control of both long and short term rates, because it cannot allow inflation to run much higher than the current high levels. The real level inflation, right now, is about 7-9% depending on how you calculate it, and this is subject of plausible deniability by the government statisticians. Once the level of inflation rises into the solid double digits, it is going to be harder and harder to deny the truth.

Once the Euro crisis is resolved in one way or another, either by collapse, or political union, the immense flows of cash that are moving out of Europe and into the dollar will end. That will cause a collapse in the value of the dollar. In addition to being an entity controlled by banksters, the Fed is also exquisitely sensitive to political pressure, because the banksters' quid-pro-quo with politicians allows the Fed to exist. Without that, the Federal Reserve would quickly cease to exist. Accordingly, blind support of the banksters, without regard to the politicians, is impossible.

The banksters have already sucked enough money from the federal teat, and purchased enough hedge positions, to survive a very large increase in interest rates. However, now, given past Fed policy, the increase in rates will probably bankrupt smaller Wall Street entities who have agreed to become their counter parties. At any rate, to defend the dollar, the Fed will be forced to end QE, not merely by "tapering", but by stopping the money printing, and actually withdrawing liquidity using reverse repos and other techniques. This will be devastating to money markets. Rates will rise dramatically.

It is probable that so much credibility will have already been lost that the final line of defense of the dollar will fail. But, whether it succeeds or not, a lot of small investors, who are now putting money into long term bonds and CDs, will surely be wiped out, along with many non-connected large investors. The value of bonds are going to crash, and banks will refuse to allow early withdrawals from CDs, forcing depositors to suffer high inflation and low interest rates.

Stock investors won't do any better. The stock market will crash because it is now being levitated on a sea of artificial liquidity provided by the Fed. Once the liquidity is withdrawn, there will be nothing left to maintain current prices. The only long term investment that will do well, in this inevitable scenario, are precious metals, most particularly gold, but also platinum and silver. Those metals are an especially good buy right now, because, as a result of multiple factors, they are in a temporary price slump. Every investor should allocate at least 1/3rd of his portfolio to precious metals and keep the rest in liquid cash ready to put into bonds and CDs once rates rise into the double digits.

13
Comment #4 by Anonymous posted on
Anonymous
Wow! Interesting analysis to say the least. I like to sleep at night so I'll try to forget what I just read!

10
Comment #10 by Anonymous posted on
Anonymous
Keep a third of your portfolio in precious metals?  You have to be kidding me, right?

9
Comment #14 by Anonymous posted on
Anonymous
Why would that be "kidding"? It seems to me to be good advice.

I would modify the advice however. People ought to keep their cash, at the ready. That much is true. Accounts like the Barclays MM, that pay the highest possible rate, while remaining totally liquid, are ideal for the 2/3rd non-gold part of the portfolio. 

I do not believe that the Fed will ever allow treasury or CD rates to reach the double digits again and will prefer to hyperinflate, if necessary, to avoid that, even if it crashes the dollar. Rates in the double digits might be doable for the big banks, but would bankrupt the US government. Unlike the 1970s, we now have so much debt compared to tax revenue, that we cannot afford to pay such rates.

When stocks crash, as they will, with the S&P in the 500 range, and blue chip PE ratios 4 to 1, or 6 to 1, or something like that, and the dividend yields are in the double digits, it will be time to finally mobilize the cash and buy, buy, buy!  Not stocks like Facebook, Twitter, Tesla, etc. which will be selling for $2 or $3 per share and still won't pay any dividends, but stocks like Proctor & Gamble, 3M, and so on. 

For now, it is good advice to avoid tying up cash in long term bonds or CDs.

1
Comment #3 by Anonymous posted on
Anonymous
I should add that the scenario I outlined above should unfold prior to 2016.

1
Comment #5 by Happy the Clown (anonymous) posted on
Happy the Clown
Anon#3, I'm getting tired of people like you painting a pretty picture. By 2016 the power grid will be in complete failure, food shortages will be commonplace, inflation will be 1000% per week, and the bird flu will rage across the globe.  

So again, quit being so optimistic.

8
Comment #6 by Anonymous posted on
Anonymous
Yea, whatever.

1
Comment #7 by Anonymous posted on
Anonymous
The comment #2 is simply stating the obvious. You cannot print up $4 trillion on top of a base of $800 billion that existed in 2008 without the inevitable consequences, and it is a simple truth that the dollar is being held up, right now, mostly because of the trouble in Europe, and the hundreds of billions of Euros that have been exchanged for dollars. When that ends, the pressure on the dollar to collapse will be intense. That is probably the reason JP Morgan took physical delivery of 20 tons of gold at COMEX in December. They know what is on the way...

3
Comment #8 by antigonish (anonymous) posted on
antigonish
I simply adore optimism.

3
Comment #9 by gregk posted on
gregk
I read so many different predictions and scenarios.  While I have my own concerns, there's such a huge number of interacting variables operative on a world wide scale that determine the conditions and outcomes in our economy, #2's apocalyptic musings are no less hypothetical and imaginative than a hundred others.  Worth considering just in passing, I suppose, but the extreme complexity of things simply don't allow for such specific and time exact prophecies as anything more than merely suggestive.  To take action now based on any of these innumerable and conflicting blueprints one sees is no more than a dice roll.  I'm going to do my best in responding to things AS THEY UNFOLD and given my circumstances, rather than choose some guru to lay it all out for me in advance and prescribe my salvation.  One does get a bit tired of these types, quite frankly.  Nobody knows exactly what's going to happen in regards to ANYTHING.

11
Comment #11 by Anonymous posted on
Anonymous
That sums up ours and the worlds financial future quite well, looking at it sensibly.  Just to many variables and scenarios to make any reasonable prediction.  

3
Comment #15 by Anonymous posted on
Anonymous
I disagree. There were numerous economists of the Austrian school who predicted the 2008 collapse with very clear forward vision. Only conventional economists who follow bankrupt theories, like Greenspan, Bernanke, et. al. were blind.

The Fed, ECB, Bank of England, Bank of China, Bank of Japan and others, all printed up huge quantities of money between 2000 and 2009. In the case of the Fed, it simply disguised the printing by using temporary open market operations, instead of permanent open market operations (QE), as they do now.

The real estate boom was an artificial credit booms, created by central banks, and it was never allowed to heal naturally, just as the previous boom, which ended in a bust in 2000 (dot com boom) was an artificial credit boom. The current artificially created boom is the largest in history and its crash will be exponentially more severe than the subprime-led crash of 2008. That is because attempts by the government, to prevent a bust will now only result in a destruction of the currency system. This was all contained in the writings of the world's greatest economists, Ludwig Von Mises, and his successors of the Austrian school, and allowed them to predict the crash with perfect accuracy.

1
Comment #18 by Anonymous posted on
Anonymous
With all the different scenarios and predictions, someone is going to be right, but how often? 

1
Comment #12 by Anonymous posted on
Anonymous
Obama wants to destroy America and the democrats are facilitating all the money printing.
Unless we get read of them, there is nothing we can do until the election time.

14
Comment #13 by anon (anonymous) posted on
anon
Posts like comment 12 are the reason there needs to be a "thumbs down" option.

8
Comment #16 by Anonymous posted on
Anonymous
I don't like Obama either, but he is not the cause of our economic problems, which are secular, and caused by the control of central planning over the US economy. The Republicans, for the most part, also support the continued operation of the Federal Reserve, and other western central banks, which are at the heart of the problem. Bush, in fact, was the one who initially authorized the TARP program and a lot of other giveaways that have bankrupted America. But, the problem is not even limited to America. It is endemic to the entire western world, where the system is under pressure of collapse everywhere.

5
Comment #19 by anon (anonymous) posted on
anon
Nothing wrong with disagreeing with or disliking Obama. It's even okay to be under the false impression that Democrats are the source of all the money printing. But when someone makes a preposterous claim like "Obama WANTS to destroy America" and gets a bunch of thumbs-up - that's downright scary.

5
Comment #20 by Anonymous posted on
Anonymous
Scary?  A bunch of thumbs-up isn't scary.  What is SCARY is that it may be TRUE! 

8
Comment #22 by gregk posted on
gregk
More silly than scary IMO, - though the comment:

"Unless we get read(sic) of them, there is nothing we can do           until the election time."

does give one pause.  I mean, what's this poster suggesting -        mass assassinations of democrats before the next vote so we        don't have to endure them even for that much longer?

BTW, Ben Bernanke (the main protagonist behind QE a.k.a.           "money printing") was a Republican appointment (together                with many of the dovish Fed Governers who support him) -             

just in case the honorable Obama/Democrat above wasn't aware.

1
Comment #24 by gregk posted on
gregk
Obama/Democrat hater - that is.

1
Comment #27 by Anonymous posted on
Anonymous
Some people that in the state of denial are in for a very rude awakening.

3
Comment #17 by gregk posted on
gregk
Again, - it's extraordinarily difficult to trace the roots and analyze the ramifications of our current economic conditions, let alone predict future outcomes.  There's a whole range of phenomena, an enormous amount of data, and innumerable interacting variables one has to look at and understand in making the attempt, and typically (even necessarily) one does so with a whole set of ideological commitments and parochial interests in place that color the outcome.  In fact, scholars, academics, professionals, journalists, and pundits et.al. (of equal repute or disrepute). have never agreed about anything in this regard and are never likely to, so let's not pretend a few anonymous posters on DA, - with their chosen authorities, self-selected observational points, but only very attenuated arguments standing behind them are any more privileged.  If they weren't so certain about everything these reflections might be much more conducive to a fun and stimulating dialogue here.  But dogmatically (and often smugly) stated as they are, I tend to scroll over them  with the realization that such know-it-alls are impossible to avoid on internet forums, and equally impossible to shake out of their certainties.  It would be nice were it otherwise.

4
Comment #21 by Anonymous posted on
Anonymous
#17 - gregk, a rather newbie to DA
re: "a few anonymous posters on DA"
Do you go by your real name?  I doubt it.  Just another troll to scroll over.

3
Comment #23 by gregk posted on
gregk
Is that of any consequence to my post or its merit?

My argument would be the same whether the posters I was referring to (or myself) gave their actual names or not.  Apart from that, I don't write with any animosity or even deny I like to read their posts (and yours). 

I was just expressing my spontaneous thoughts about how uncertain everything pertaining to these matters we discuss here is in my judgement, and my feeling that those who believe they have it all figured out are guilty of overstating things in a way that tends to discredit even the observations they make that are worth considering.

4
Comment #25 by Anonymous posted on
Anonymous
Holding your nose too high and  breathing in thin air may be clouding your judgement.

2
Comment #26 by gregk posted on
gregk
Or perhaps I'm just reflecting you know-it-alls arrogance back at you with a bit of recompensatory condescension.

2
Comment #28 by Anonymous posted on
Anonymous
So, when and what will cause the stock market to crash?

2
Comment #29 by Anonymous posted on
Anonymous
When: Tuesday 1:45 pm. Cause: DA threads.

6
Comment #30 by gregk posted on
gregk
The withdrawal of QE, rising interest rates, and another recession, in that order.

The timing depends on inflation (or at least inflation as the Fed and the markets measure it), - the only thing likely to stop QE.

What might prevent a stock market crash under that scenario?

Robust worldwide economic growth, ennabling Fed liquidity's buttressing of the market to be replaced by the huge increases in corporate profitability that would result.

Only speculation on my part, however, - a statement of mere possibility in the most generalized of terms. rather than the type of oracular revelation so common here. 

Would like to read others' (non-prophetic) musings on the topic.

1
Comment #31 by Anonymous posted on
Anonymous
#28, if the stock market crashes, the dollar will fall, the interest rates will become negative and there will be no money coming from the government to support the leeches and food stamps addicts. On top of that your assets and money will not mean anything to anyone if the treasury can not sell the bills and the notes to foreigner without a functioning stock market.
The money printed at the treasury gas no value unless someone buys it at what ever price they think is appropriate under the circumstances.
The stock market makes the dollar valid currency, otherwise your savings may lose most of the value if the dollar devalued against any foreign currency.
The stock market keeps the dollar valid currency, remember that.

3
Comment #32 by gregk posted on
gregk
"If the stock market crashes..."  bla, bla, bla, - which wasn't the question.

It was:

"When and what will cause the stock market to crash?"

But I understand you had an oracle you wanted to deliver.

Listen, I'm not trying to be a jerk, but I read your response, and all it is is a very poorly disguised rant with a strong undertow of hostility against someone or something (I can guess), but without much (if any) logic or argument one can clearly follow.  I mean the way you were connecting things was filled with a lot of unclarified assumptions and unsupported assertions (You want me to elaborate examples of these?).  Honestly, I/we need an interpreter.  Does anyone understand all this?

But honestly, could you answer the poster's original question?  Maybe the rest of what you say will follow more clearly if you do so.

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Comment #33 by Anonymous posted on
Anonymous
Bills and notes of the US government are NOT sold to the foreigners through a "functioning stock market". They are sold directly to certain buyers, including the Chinese government, and indirectly to most others, through the Fed's primary dealer network (a/k/a the people comment #2 refers to as "casino bankers"). A stock market crash tends to increase the value of the dollar, not decrease it. The sea of liquidity that now levitates the stock market, tends to decrease the value of the dollar, while increasing the value of stocks, because the abundance of dollars means that too many of them are chasing the same assets.

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Comment #34 by Anonymous posted on
Anonymous
Maybe in normal times, but not when so many dollars are flooding the world through the abnormal action of the Federal Reserve.  Playing with artificially low interest rates for so long is like playing with a wild fire getting out of control.

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