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Is This The Best Time For Investors? Don't Bet On It.

Sunday, May 19, 2013 - 8:44 AM
From the Wall Street Journal
Here is the risk today. If the economy booms, quantitative easing will end. Stocks and, especially, bonds will suffer. But if the economy doesn't boom, stocks will suffer because profits will run out of steam. Then the Fed will have to resort to ever more wild measures to stimulate economic growth and inflation. Sooner or later, bonds will suffer, too.

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3
Ken TuminKen Tumin5,441 posts since
Nov 29, 2009
Rep Points: 123,675
1. Sunday, May 19, 2013 - 10:57 AM
.

Dear KenBDG,

 
    If the economy booms, quantitative easing will end. Stocks and, especially, bonds will suffer.
    But if the economy doesn't boom, stocks will suffer because profits will run out of steam.
 

Right ... So no matter what the economy does, boom or not boom, the Stocks will suffer ...

Generally there is positive co-relation between the economy and the stock market that is rather independ of the money supply .  Looks like this piece envisions a downturn for stock market no matter what ...

 
Sooner or later, bonds will suffer, too.
 

Gee ... sooner or later ... no time-frame given ... Glad it's not any more vague than that!  :-)

...

All in all, per this piece there's much suffering ahead ... no matter what the economy does ... no matter if we are talking stocks or bonds ...  I wonder if the author has already shorted both stocks and bonds with everything he's got, or he's just an author who earns a living authoring pieces, rather than trading.  In other words, is he merely talking the talk, and not walking the walk?  :-)

... Has the author placed any "bet" that this isn't the "best-time" for the investors?  :-)

...


I wonder if any author has ever proclaimed in real-time, that this happens to be the "best" time for the investors! 

Yours Truly,
- Anon
In FED I Trust  :-)
4
ytytytytytytytyt158 posts since
Jan 28, 2013
Rep Points: 623
2. Sunday, May 19, 2013 - 8:14 PM
Ken and Yt,

Yeah, that is why most financial analyses and reports are just noise to me.  Most so-called experts are shooting in the dark with their groundless analyses and ambiguous articles.

Personally my strategy has been the same for many years.  It is an adaptive strategy with a balanced and diversified portfolio of carefully-tested mutual funds and stable value funds. 

Yt, I think real estate (either in funds or actual real estate) is one of the tools to fight inflation (others include gold and comsumer products/staples).  Thoughts?

BR,

51
3
51hh51hh1,460 posts since
Jan 16, 2010
Rep Points: 6,348
3. Tuesday, May 21, 2013 - 10:47 AM
.

Dear 51hh,

TIPs are by far the best tools, so far as know.  Exactly as the name (Treasure Inflation Protected Bonds), they are custom designed to offer protection against the inflation.

Another tool I know of will be the funds/ETFs that short the bonds. 

Examples are:

(1)  RRPIX   (2) RYJUX   (3) RINF  (4) FINF  (5) UINF  (6) SINF  (7) TBT  (8) TTT

The second last offers double levarage and last offers TRIPLE.

...

Personally I've used TBT, but I've never used TTT yet.  

I have devised the algorithm to use the TTT, but so far I've never put it to use.

Yours Truly,
- Anon
In FED I Trust  :-)
3
ytytytytytytytyt158 posts since
Jan 28, 2013
Rep Points: 623
4. Wednesday, May 22, 2013 - 12:43 PM
Dear 51hh,

Today is a good day to check the effect of double and triple negative leverage.  TBT is up 3.20% and TTT is up 4.54%.

For those which quick draw, such trading vehicles are well suited to make a fishfull of dollars rather quickly..  :-)

Yours Truly,
- Anon
In FED I Trust  :-)

 
1
ytytytytytytytyt158 posts since
Jan 28, 2013
Rep Points: 623
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