Tuesday, February 21, 2012 - 9:08 PM
"If the past is prologue (and that cannot be relied upon), we could see a scenario something like this (Note: Wild ass guessing to follow). Markets kiss 13,000, pullback and consolidate. But they are not overbought sufficiently for anything more than a serious retracement, and so they continue higher for several months, until the % of stocks over 200 day MA is near 90% (they are at 75% today). That takes us somewhere between March and June. The next sell off begins, lopping 25% or so off of the SPX. The Federal Reserve waits until after the November election to introduce QE3, and the cycle starts anew."
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Apr 6, 2010
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