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The Long View On Interest Rates

Tuesday, August 27, 2013 - 9:23 PM
This is the long term view on interest rates.  The chart shows both the "Fed Funds" equivalent short term rate versus long term interest rates.  There has been much discussion as of late about the need for interest rates to rise as they have been historically way too low for too long.  However, is that really the case?

 

Guest Post: The Long View On Interest Rates | Zero Hedge
5
MikeMike327 posts since
Feb 22, 2010
Rep Points: 876
1. Wednesday, August 28, 2013 - 7:25 AM
4
ShorebreakShorebreak2,601 posts since
Apr 6, 2010
Rep Points: 14,078
2. Wednesday, August 28, 2013 - 10:01 AM
That's what makes the market do it's thing.

Bulls and Bears.
2
MikeMike327 posts since
Feb 22, 2010
Rep Points: 876
3. Wednesday, August 28, 2013 - 7:43 PM
"However, the current equivalent "Fed Funds" rate is at a level that is historically out of context and was only seen during the "The Great Depression.""

 "Since QE is mostly about lowering long-term rates, it shouldn't be hard to understand that its tapering would send rates soaring on the long end." 

Both referenced article points to large interest rate hikes in the near future. 

Implications:

1. The rate hike is never good for the stock market.

2. With some luck, the deposit rate may even increase a bit; I mean gradually and subtly.

Thoughts?



  
3
51hh51hh1,476 posts since
Jan 16, 2010
Rep Points: 6,425
4. Wednesday, August 28, 2013 - 9:21 PM
I'm looking for another 5 year CD next week so that should mean (with my luck) rates will go up after I lock in. :)  Won't be good for me but may help some others who come behind me. 
4
paoli2paoli21,365 posts since
Aug 10, 2011
Rep Points: 5,982
5. Thursday, August 29, 2013 - 9:57 AM
@paoli2 - that is how my luck is with stocks.  So if you ever want to short something let me know first.  If I buy it is bound to go down.  :O)

BTW, as we have been making our calls, we are hearing more banks and credit unions see loan demand pick-up.  So hopefully, this will add some need for deposits and competition and thus some higher rates.  We have seen an uptick on the long-term as the 10-year treasury has remained at the elevated levels.  Whether that is here to stay or not, only time will tell. 
3
ChrisCDChrisCD69 posts since
Nov 18, 2010
Rep Points: 452
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