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Gallup Says Seasonally-Adjusted Unemployment Climbs To 8.6%; Who To Believe (Gallup Or The BLS)?

Friday, September 6, 2013 - 8:56 AM
Who To Believe?

Gallup notes seven consecutive months of declining full-time employment. Because of Obamacare effects , the Gallup report is entirely believable, regardless of what the BLS says.

The rising trend in unemployment is also believable. Unless the BLS heavily modifies August seasonal adjustment factors, I expect BLS reported unemployment to spike higher over the next two months and for full-time jobs to disappoint as well.

Read more at Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis 


MikeMike327 posts since
Feb 22, 2010
Rep Points: 876
1. Friday, September 6, 2013 - 10:00 AM
This is the gov post. 

This is where they how the BLS received their information. It was not a poll. I assume that is where Gallop received the information. No footnotes or explanation that I saw. 

2013 CES Preliminary Benchmark Revision to be Released on September 26, 2013

Each year, the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey estimates are benchmarked to comprehensive counts of employment from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) for the month of March. These counts are derived from state unemployment insurance (UI) tax records that nearly all employers are required to file. On September 26, 2013, at 10:00 a.m., the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the preliminary estimate of the upcoming annual benchmark revision to the establishment survey employment series. This is the same day the First Quarter 2013 data from the QCEW will be issued. Preliminary benchmark revisions for all major industry sectors, as well as total nonfarm and total private levels, will be available on the BLS website at

The final benchmark revision will be issued with the publication of the January 2014 Employment Situation news release in February. 
Ally6770Ally6770937 posts since
Jan 16, 2010
Rep Points: 2,727