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Economist Says QE3 Will Not Begin To Be Scaled Back Until End of 2016

Monday, October 28, 2013 - 11:55 AM
Economist Brad Schiller, emeritus professor of economics at American University and author of "The Economy Today," says the Fed has made it clear there will be no scaling back of QE3 bond purchases until about the end of 2016. 

Wall Street's Fed fixation - latimes.com

He bases his assertion on the goal before any tapering will be started being an unemployment rate of 6.5%, that Janet Yellen is a dove on inflation, the rate at which new jobs are being produced, and the number of people who are not currently being counted as unemployed because they have given up looking for work -- until more jobs become available.

He says even if 200,000 new jobs were created every month, it would be the end of November 2016 before unemployment would hit 6.5% and tapering would start. The number of new jobs created last month was only 148,000.
11
me1004me1004368 posts since
Jan 16, 2010
Rep Points: 2,559
1. Monday, October 28, 2013 - 2:42 PM
2016 before tapering   LOL
3
loulou541 posts since
Aug 3, 2010
Rep Points: 3,388
2. Monday, October 28, 2013 - 5:00 PM
If I'm still around, I anticipate the first significant rate rise on May 19, 2019. That's when whomever is in charge of this asylum discovers that ZIRP and endless QE didn't work after all those years. In between now and then, 'man the life boats'.
4
ShorebreakShorebreak2,601 posts since
Apr 6, 2010
Rep Points: 14,078
3. Monday, October 28, 2013 - 5:25 PM
Let's hope that a significant rate increase is not because our currency has become worthless, soaring inflation beyond the control of our central bankers and an implosion in our financial markets.
3
loulou541 posts since
Aug 3, 2010
Rep Points: 3,388
4. Monday, October 28, 2013 - 11:33 PM
But if the rates hold low long enough, then people who buy a five year CD or longer would feel good about not having to pay early withdrawal penalties and keep the CD into maturity as it would remain a good rate.
3
mustsavemoremustsavemore49 posts since
Jun 26, 2013
Rep Points: 152
5. Tuesday, October 29, 2013 - 12:04 AM
mutsavemore, your post is an excellent example for viewing this situation with a half glass full perspective. Although rates now are awful, at least I won't have tp pay EWP's if rates stay awful.
3
loulou541 posts since
Aug 3, 2010
Rep Points: 3,388
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