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Welcome To “Stupid Town”: Stocks Ignore DC Budget Fight, Inflation Fears, Et Al

Saturday, April 9, 2011 - 3:06 PM
 Well said.


"We've entered stupid town in terms of the rally," our Breakout colleague Jeff Macke tells Henry and me in the accompanying video. "None of this stuff matters until it does and then it's going to matter in a big hurry. Until then, just be long and try not to think."

Indeed, the market has confounded those who've tried to "out-think" the rally since March 2009. It hasn't paid to fret about any number of potential negative developments, including Europe's debt crisis, which reared its ugly head again this week as Portugal was forced to (finally) ask for a bailout.

Meanwhile, the ECB raised rates for the first time since 2008 while China's central bank increased rates for the fourth time since Christmas as it tries to reign in inflationary pressures in the world's most populous nation.

At some point, the U.S. Federal Reserve will join the global tightening parade and this week brought more evidence of the debate inside the central bank on the topic.


The conventional wisdom is the market will keep rallying until the Fed acts to raise rates, although history shows stocks do well in the early stages of a tightening cycle. And if recent history is any guide, the Fed will move later than expected, which could help stocks in the short-term but cause all sorts of problems in the months (and potentially years) ahead.
MikeMike327 posts since
Feb 22, 2010
Rep Points: 876