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Faber Says Markets `Oversold,' Expects S&P 500 To Rally - Bloomberg 3:38

Friday, August 5, 2011 - 3:36 AM
Short term snap back.  Long term concerns.  QE3 challenge.
MikeMike327 posts since
Feb 22, 2010
Rep Points: 876
1. Friday, August 5, 2011 - 6:39 AM
Thanks for the news.

But sorry, I am sick with all those so-called experts.  I can predict the same:

Rhett: This is an overdue correction, but it may be a stealth long-term bear/bull market depending on QE2/3/4 and the global geo-political situations.  There "may" be (likelihood is 49.99%) a short term (say in two months give and take) rally (dead-cat bounce), but be watchful for continual weakness (i.e., do not catch a falling knife).  Thus it is a near-term bear long-term semi-bear, real long-term bull market.  (hush hush: And frankly, I don't give a ****!!)

Equals: saying nothing and covers all possibility:D
51hh51hh1,475 posts since
Jan 16, 2010
Rep Points: 6,424
2. Friday, August 5, 2011 - 8:57 AM
@51hh, well said.  These economic pronouncements are like the weather forecast - if it is vague enough it can never be wrong. 
pearlbrownpearlbrown1,430 posts since
Nov 2, 2010
Rep Points: 6,246
3. Friday, August 5, 2011 - 9:24 AM

IMO, weather forecasts are too specific.  That's why they're ALWAYS wrong.  Then again, it may depend on what part of the country you're living in. KIT :-)
WhataBummerWhataBummer413 posts since
Oct 15, 2010
Rep Points: 1,702
4. Friday, August 5, 2011 - 9:52 AM
The experts who have been certain higher rates were coming 3 years ago...  and that the whole global economy would live in peace and harmony...  have been more wrong than Faber. 

Faber was one of the first to talk about the "PIIGS," explaining the risks in those countries.  His call for rates above 30% have actually happened there.  Faber has correctly called the market direction and percentage increase over the last few years.  He called gold and the other metals 3 years ago.  He was "wrong" about japan in February...  but he made his call a week or two before the tsunami.

If the only "news" we are going to follow is the news we want to hear...  or if we're going to misrepresent what others actually say...  well, what the heck is that???  The line is, "Even a broken clock is right twice a day."  Well, guess what.  That applies to everyone.  Not just those we disagree with.

I've posted articles about the higher rates and world harmony too.  Even when I don't think the view presented is correct.  Evaluate everything.  Hold on to what makes sense.  Then, choose your risk-tolerance, and make a decision.

From the start of following all this nonsense, I've clearly stated that I hope the most bearish calls are wrong.

I just haven't assumed they were.  And how can you make a 100% correct call, when you have no idea what the wonderful people running countries and central banks are going to say to each other, what laws they will pass, what taxes they might change, how much debt they will or won't dive into...  don't you have to offer a flexible call based upon all of the potential decisions made by others?

And now...  the news:  May the rates rise to your highest wishes!  May the banks call us up and offer us gobs of money, just cause they think we're nice.  I'd like to teach the world to sing...   may the wind always be at our backs...   and ad lib the rest of what we want to hear...   yay.
MikeMike327 posts since
Feb 22, 2010
Rep Points: 876
5. Tuesday, August 9, 2011 - 2:10 AM
I'm sure glad I don't have Faber managing my money.  His predicted "rally" turned out to be a 600 point drop in the Dow on Monday.  I bet now he's saying the market is "really oversold".
dunkerdunker136 posts since
Jun 11, 2010
Rep Points: 409
6. Tuesday, August 9, 2011 - 5:13 AM
Rhett's repdiction:

Wednesday rally (dead-cat bounce): Probability - exactly 50%:D
51hh51hh1,475 posts since
Jan 16, 2010
Rep Points: 6,424
7. Tuesday, August 9, 2011 - 6:34 AM
dunker and 51hh.  Yes.  He was wrong. :-(  A bear, making a short term bullish call...  he was... optimistic?

That I posted that 3:30 AM Friday morning does mean something, though.  Let's see if we can be Objective.

It means President Obama was wrong.  It means Treasurer (i pay no taxes) Tim was wrong.  (Lucky for us, Timmy's gonna stay with us too.  Thanks Timmy).  They were positive that Standard and Poors would NOT downgrade the US.  They assured us that it just wouldn't happen.

Maybe Faber trusted Their call, on the US having a AAA rating.  But, the information Faber was getting was faulty.  So, that would make his call more difficult... right?

It was during the news cycle Friday (After the Faber interview) that we might actually get a downgrade.  That spooked the markets a bit, so we dropped Friday.  As Shorebreak pointed out, conveniently, the official downgrade came just as the weekend began, so we got a bigger drop Monday.  If the downgrade had happened Thursday afternoon, do you think maybe Faber would have had a different short term read?  I do.  And maybe the market would have dropped 1500 points, instead of 1200 over 2 days.

If we only follow those who are 100% accurate...  we'd have noone to follow...  including in the mirror.

If Faber was managing our money, we'd be in Gold.  That's above 1700oz now, right?

Don't listen to Faber.  He's always wrong.

When will you guys be in the Barron's round table, on Bloomberg, or CNBC?  I look forward to seeing your interviews.  Maybe then we'll all make some serious money.

You guys are fun :-)
MikeMike327 posts since
Feb 22, 2010
Rep Points: 876