Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - Feb 12, 2019

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There were more signs in the last week that the Fed won’t be raising rates anytime soon. In recent speeches, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed officials have suggested that the Fed will be exercising patience in the first half of this year. As economist Tim Duy described in his latest Fed Watch blog post:

the Fed is sending a very coordinated message that they are on hold through the first half of the year. Now that policy rates are near the estimates of neutral while inflation remains unexpectedly low, central bankers are content to slow down and review their handiwork.

The best chance we have for a rate hike in the second half of this year is if the economic data surprises on the upside. In the speeches, the Fed officials have been optimistic about the economy. If we keep seeing strong economic growth this year and if that results in higher inflation, we may have a decent chance for at least one Fed rate hike in the second half of 2019.

On Wednesday morning, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January will be released. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in the core CPI. Keep an eye on CPI releases this year to see how inflation evolves. Higher inflation will increase the odds of a Fed rate hike.

The odds of any 2019 Fed rate hikes as indicated by the Fed Fund futures are now close to zero. They now show odds of less than 2% of a rate hike by December. The odds that the rate will be lower by December are now 11.6%. In summary, the market definitely believes that we’re at the top of the rate cycle.

If we are at the peak in this rate cycle, that would be very disappointing. The target range of the federal funds rate is now 2.25% to 2.50%. The top of that range is still less than half of what the federal funds rate was from June 2006 to September 2007, the peak of the last rate cycle.

Short-dated Treasury yields (maturities under one year) were up from last week while other Treasury yields (maturities of one year and over) were down. The 10-year yield had the largest decline, falling six bps in the last week. The 10-year yield has declined 15 bps in the last year.

The 10-2 spread (the difference between the yields of the 10-year and 2-year Treasury notes) narrowed slightly, falling from 18 bps to 17 bps. A negative 10-2 spread has a history of preceding recessions.

The following numbers are based on Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates and the CME Group FedWatch.

Treasury Yields (Close of 2/11/19):

  • 1-month: 2.44% up from 2.39% last week (1.35% a year ago)
  • 6-month: 2.51% up from 2.50% last week (1.82% a year ago)
  • 1-year: 2.55% down from 2.56% last week (1.93% a year ago)
  • 2--year: 2.48% down from 2.53% last week (2.09% a year ago)
  • 5--year: 2.47% down from 2.51% last week (2.56% a year ago)
  • 10-year: 2.65% down from 2.71% last week (2.86% a year ago)
  • 30-year: 3.00% down from 3.03% last week (3.14% a year ago)

Fed funds futures' probabilities of future rate hikes by:

  • Mar 2019 - up by at least 25 bps: 0.0% same as last week
  • Jun 2019 - up by at least 25 bps: 0.0% down from 4.9% last week
  • Sep 2019 - up by at least 25 bps: 2.0% down from 6.0% last week
  • Dec 2019 - up by at least 25 bps: 1.8% down from 5.3% last week
  • Dec 2019 - down by at least 25 bps: 11.6% up from 9.4% last week

CD Interest Rate Forecasts

With long-dated Treasury yields declining and with the odds of any 2019 Fed rate hike low, banks will have reasons to end CD rate hikes, especially on long-term CDs. In the last couple of months, we have been seeing a steady fall of brokered CD rates. I’ll have more on this in my CD summary later today. Rate trends are often seen first in brokered CDs before they’re seen in direct CDs.

Short-term CD rates will likely hold pretty steady until the odds of a Fed rate hike or cut grows. Long-term CD rates may have downward pressure for some time until we see strong economic data that increases the odds of a Fed rate hike.

If the economic data weakens and the Fed starts to suggest the possibility of rate cuts, we may then see widespread rate cuts on CDs.

The above graph shows the rate trends of the average CD rates. These average rates are based on all the rate data that we have collected over the years. This is an interactive graph. You can choose the term of the CDs (from 3 months to 5 years) and the look-back period (from 3 months to 5 years). As you can see in the graph, average CD rates for all terms have increased in the last year with the largest gains occurring after March 2018.

Note: This Fed and economic overview used to be part of my weekly summary, but it will now be a separate post. My weekly summaries will now be focused entirely on deposit rates and deals, and they will be published on Tuesday evenings.


Comments
john
john   |     |   Comment #1
it does not pay to save anymore no return
Dan Coates
Dan Coates   |     |   Comment #2
What should we do?
Chickenfoots
Chickenfoots   |     |   Comment #3
CD rates are barely staying above inflation rates if you factor in taxes. I personally think CDs, savings, and money markets are not worth it. Most of my money goes into index and mutual funds now.
Scott
Scott   |     |   Comment #4
Which were great for the last 10 years, but what about the next 10? Would you rather lose 20% in a bear market or earn 2%?
AOC
AOC   |     |   Comment #6
Exactly! Carl Icahn said, about two years ago, "I'd rather make 3%, than lose 30%". I think he, and you, are right. There is no reason to think the stock market will not head down from here.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #39
Yes because the stock market always heads down when the FED stops hiking interest rates, when the economy is booming, when people are getting pay raises, when taxes are cut, when inflation is low, when businesses are doing well etc. That was sarcasm in case you missed it. It's a great time to be in the market.
Ann Coulter
Ann Coulter   |     |   Comment #81
See Comment #60 below. Duck has it exactly right.
#12 - This comment has been removed for violating our comment policy.
AOC
AOC   |     |   Comment #14
I think the chances of a prolonged downturn from here are high.
Duck
Duck   |     |   Comment #60
Major recession by end of 2019 or early 2020. Personal debt, auto loans, student loans and revolving debt is at an alltime high and is the 2019 version of the "subprime" mortgage loans that crushed the banks during the Great Recession. A record number of people are already 90 days past due on their auto loans and it is going to get worse. If you own auto stocks, dump them today and wind down as much as your market investments as possible. I'm only 30% in the market and working on reducing further. Crash is inevitable... take cover friends.
Bozo
Bozo   |     |   Comment #7
Chickenfoots (re comment #3): It's not an "either/or" proposition. One can, and should, invest in fixed-income as well as equity index funds. The mix of one's asset allocation may vary given one's age, but the key is diversification. I choose to allocate a large percentage of my fixed-income to CDs, but others might pick bonds or bond funds. The trick is to keep ERs low; CDs are superb for that.
AOC
AOC   |     |   Comment #8
What are ERs?
Jean
Jean   |     |   Comment #10
Expense Ratio. (management fees)
AOC
AOC   |     |   Comment #28
Thanks very much.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #47
Right Bozo. I keep 50% in cash, CD's and the other 50% in high yield monthly dividend paying stocks averaging around 10% APY overall. The no risk balances out the high risk. Having everything in cash or everything in the market is a really bad idea. Cash can lose to inflation and taxes and stocks can drop on a dime. As with everything in life balance is key.
Dunmovin
Dunmovin   |     |   Comment #5
Ri ght...just keep working? How about saving more to compensate for “perceived “ low rates? After all, that’s what most of us did for past years!
AOC
AOC   |     |   Comment #9
What do you mean by "perceived" low rates?
HighYield
HighYield   |     |   Comment #11
Yep, rates are low. What we see is what we get. I've started playing the game like everyone else, and chasing rates wherever I can find a fairly good one. I think the highest now is about 3.55%? And that's for a 5 yr CD.

According to Ken's commentary, the future for a Fed hike looks pretty bleak. I'm going to lock up one more five-year CD, and call it a day. Not much more to do, or can do. Well, I guess I can play around with some short-term stuff, a couple of 6 month CDs coming out of the oven soon. But I don't think I will reinvest those, I'm planning to take a nice long relaxing trip somewhere and have some fun with that money. Life is too short to hoard it all.
James DIRTY COP Comey
James DIRTY COP Comey   |     |   Comment #13
Comment#11 LMAO you should be using D1's method and that "relaxing trip" would cost you zero!
Relaxing?
Relaxing?   |     |   Comment #15
I don't think anyone would have a "relaxing trip" using D1's financial strategies. Too much time spent looking for those special deals and constantly juggling finances.

HighYield has the right idea. There is more to life than just accumulating money.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #40
Every day is a vacation for me since I retired. Looking for ways to maximize my returns is like a relaxing hobby compared to working a 18 hr. days on my feet. You guys must have had some really easy cushy office jobs to think what I'm doing is anything resembling work.
HighYield
HighYield   |     |   Comment #22
#13. Thank you Mr Comey. But I don't mind spending money on trips and fun times. Save some; Spend some; Give some away. That was my plan all along as I got older. And I'm darn grateful and lucky to be in this position!

I blow all the monthly interest that comes back to me via ACH every month, and enjoy it. :-)))

(Hearing that, some of you guys probably break out in HIVES! LOL!!!!)
#31 - This comment has been removed for violating our comment policy.
RJM
RJM   |     |   Comment #36
Besides, nobody says you cannot relax while moving your money to the best rates. You act like its just a huge stress and its not.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #44
@RJM: These guys must stress out getting a cup of coffee in the morning. I did all this stuff back when I was working a full time job. Now that was a bit stressful due to time constraints. What is stressful to me is earning a low interest rate on my money and having that eaten up by inflation and taxes.
relaxing
relaxing   |     |   Comment #70
@d1, comment #44

Perhaps if you didn't jump at retiring so young and worked a few more years, you wouldn't be so stressed out earning a low interest rate on your money.

By-the-way, you know nothing about "these guys". Some of us worked mighty hard and long hours as blue collar workers out in all kinds of weather conditions, not office jobs. It may be that we worked many more years than you, saved more, and now in retirement, have much better and enjoyable things to do in life than constantly looking for ways to maximize our returns on our next eggs.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #75
Hey relaxing I DID plan on working a bit longer before retiring. What I didn't plan on however is my good paying manufacturing job getting shipped to China because of so called free trade agreements! My choices were to work for half my former pay and do more like welding, machining and engineering on top of machine building (which was unacceptable) or retire a few years early. I also didn't expect 0% interest rates on my hard earned savings for 8 years straight. Even with all that I found other ways to earn income and I would make the same choice today. I also became a full time dad and found that it worked out better to stay in a lower tax bracket(top of the 15% now 12% married filing jointly) and save the working/childcare expenses. Believe it or not I do much better than most 2 income families due to investment and tax planning. Most 2 income families don't realize that their entire second income can be eaten up with higher taxes, daycare/childcare expenses and work related expenses like second car, gas, clothing, work supplies, going out to lunch etc.
RJM
RJM   |     |   Comment #35
If you are retired and your next egg is only $100k, maybe a little less spending and a little more hoarding is in order?
Dunmovin
Dunmovin   |     |   Comment #16
For the last 8+ years rates from the start of the Big R were...(fill in the blank). The increase since then (last two years) is godsend to some of us. Ergo current rates would be perceived as”low rates” by newbies to the scene
HighYield
HighYield   |     |   Comment #21
Very true Dunmovin. The highest rate for me, many years ago, was an IRA CD at PenFed that paid 6.5%? I think it was 12 years ago? But for my parents who were socking money away in the early 70s, they enjoyed yields of 11% to 15%. But of course inflation was rip-roaring too.

I've changed my tune... I'm now very thankful to get the 2.40% to 3.55% or so, in my savings & ladder. It's the only game in town for a conservative saver like me, so I'll just shut up, and take it!
AOC
AOC   |     |   Comment #27
I understand.
111
111   |     |   Comment #51
You guys are right, this stuff takes forever. For example, I have a couple remaining "rewards checking" accounts that I still maintain, one paying 3.33% and one 4%. The monthly ACH's to them (to satisfy requirements) and from them (to remove profits) are automated. The 10 - 12 debitcard transactions per month are performed by me sitting in a chair drinking coffee (like right now) or sometimes something stronger, depending on the time of day. Each of the 2 banks takes under 5 minutes per month. Let's also throw in about 30 minutes/month spent looking for new rewards checking accounts (they're harder to find now, admittedly). Let's round up - 1 hour/month.

My monthly profit from this is $170/month. Where else am I going to make that per hour? Plus, I enjoy it.

Now, if only I could avoid that stress....
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #52
@111: Right like my 5% savings accounts. All automated time spent 1 minute to check the interest every 3 months. Earnings $217/mo.
FED facts
FED facts   |     |   Comment #17
I posted a comment in the beginning in January 2019, but Ken deleted my post for some reason, I will tell you again the FACTS:

FED (Federal Reserve bank) is NOT a Federal part of any US government, they are no reserve of anything, because they do not have any money to lend but have ability to create free to them money without any costs or assets pledged and last, they are not INDEPENDENT body, they are controlled by the globalists and the bank of England.

Trump suspended their mandate temporary and silently without any notice to anyone in the media, because, (to make the long story short) their mandate was and still is, to destroy the US dollar and the US economy by order from the globalists.

You do not have to believe nor pay any attention to this post, but the fact remains FACT. The $22 trillions of national debt, creates self imploding economy and destruction of everyones wealth, again you do not have to agree or believe, but that is the FACT.

Trump is fighting for us to save us from the inevitable and the interest rates must be low for his strategy to work, I say give him some credit and time to save us from the bad future that the previous administration(s) did set it up and the deep state, they conspired against the Americans.
The 2-3% interest should be our last thing on our minds, if we can save the present value of our assets, consider us lucky.
#18 - This comment has been removed for violating our comment policy.
larry
larry   |     |   Comment #19
Comment #17 Look there is a reason why 7 out of the top 10 reps(riches) in the House and Senate are Democrats. Look, they don't care about us!!!!
Joe
Joe   |     |   Comment #25
larry, thanks for noticing, I wish more people wake up from the dems nightmare in congress. The ratio of rich dems/gop is 10 to 1.
Steve
Steve   |     |   Comment #68
larry, the dems became rich by receiving money under the table, like pay for play formula. Maxine Waters, does not live in her congressional district and is being re-elected time after time, she lives in $3 million home and deposit income in her bank of $1-3 millions per year average and reports the taxable income for 2017 as $6000 only and paid $600 in federal taxes. Pelosi is worth over $300 millions, Feinstein worth over $500 millions on senators salary only, can you trust or believe any of them. The dem's goal is to accumulate wealth, exempt their wealth of any taxation and confiscate the money from the peasants and put them to work on the fields. Did you read the A.S.C. the green deal, there it says, guaranteed job for every American, which means you will work for us till the day you die.
Betty
Betty   |     |   Comment #55
I agree and everyone who thinks the rich will pay huge taxes, read this:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bill-gates-tax-plans-like-ocasio-cortezs-are-extreme-and-missing-the-picture-2019-02-12
aube3000
aube3000   |     |   Comment #23
Wait until these Neo-liberals pass absurd "guaranteed job" bills and socialized medicine. We'll be at NEGATIVE interest rates!
Joe
Joe   |     |   Comment #26
You would be lucky if they were negative, how about total confiscation of the people's wealth. Listen to Alexandra the green dream queen, she will take your auto, money, house and anything of value. Keep on voting for the dems, once they take over full congress, the game is over.
gregk
gregk   |     |   Comment #32
Now where has she proposed that? What she has proposed is a 70% marginal tax rate on incomes over $10 million. It's Elizabeth Warren that's proposed a 2% "wealth tax" on assets over $50 million.

Some "total confiscation of the people's wealth", Joe.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #41
Didn't you see the "New Green Deal"? AOC is by far the dumbest Democrat out there and the yardstick is very low already. She wants to outlaw all CO2 emissions, only flagellating cows! lol, red meat and cars. She thinks we can travel to Europe on a high speed rail! I vote for her to take the first trip and while she is holding her breath she won't be producing any CO2 emissions by exhaling.
Sims
Sims   |     |   Comment #48
#32, you are missing the point, the whole green deal is USA to become socialist country by allowing the government to control everything. The dems know the rich will leave the country, the dems know the upper middle class will create LLC for protections and the whole burden will be on the working class and the people with assets. That green dream will cost hundreds of trillions of dollars and will need total enslavement of the us citizens, they exempted the 350 millions illegals invited by this green deal to come here and enjoy the free life.
Sims
Sims   |     |   Comment #49
gregk #32, the dems just need 10 more senators to control the senate and then, the country disintegrates, do not be complacent about it, the rich will denounce their citizenships if that happens, you and I will be on the hook for the money.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #56
Now gregk they always start out with just taxing the "rich" but that is just the start. They end up jacking up all the tax brackets eventually because there are not enough rich people in the country to fund their Socialist plans. So Rich becomes anyone who is not collecting a welfare check/disability or on medicaid.
Jenna
Jenna   |     |   Comment #92
gregk, yes sir, that is in the socialist plan, but they will never tell you the truth upfront, you will find out after the fact (after they get your vote).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dK60sX_upB4
gregk
gregk   |     |   Comment #33
According to your logic and calculations, Joe, the Dems would be taxing their own selves to complete oblivion. Surprised you're not all for it.
Sims
Sims   |     |   Comment #46
gregk, the dems always exempt themselves from any taxes and regulations, have you not noticed that by now?
Moris
Moris   |     |   Comment #53
gregk, the democrats are exempted from: Obamacare, insider trading, federal taxes and all political contributions in millions goes to non-profit org or foundations or charity funds or foreign accounts. They pay very little tax, because they can deduct everything, including transportation and housing as expense.
Do you know that every member in congress receives a percentage of the pentagon's budget every year as a tax free bonus?
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #86
Isn't it incredible that those who make the laws don't have to pay the same taxes they willfully inflict on others? Talk about a conflict of interest. We all argue about D vs. R but the reality is it's the politician class vs. the rest of us. Nothing brings that more to light then seeing both Republicans and Democrats both gaining up on Trump. He is getting in the way of their business as usual politics in DC.
Jenna
Jenna   |     |   Comment #93
deplorable 1, they are messing with a wrong president, Trump will drain the swamp from these narcissists, hypocrites, fraudsters and many more. He just needs another term, to many of them for to long time have been in Washington.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #42
Did you guys see Pelosi at the State of the union? Trump must have made her nervous exposing their idiocy. I haven't seen that much paperwork shuffled around since my mortgage closing.
111
111   |     |   Comment #43
Connecticut tried "soaking the rich" a few years ago. Guess what? The rich left, and CT is now struggling. Gee, that wasn't predictable at all (lol).

https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-connecticut-rescue-plan-1540509346
https://www.wsj.com/articles/connecticut-nations-wealthiest-state-may-be-tapped-out-on-taxing-the-rich-1495186203

And if your don't think many of the super-rich will also leave the entire COUNTRY if attacked with confiscatory taxes - guess again.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #50
They are leaving New York and California because of the high taxes. Now that Trump put a limit on the SALT deductions all the rich Democrats are having to pay for the high taxes they voted for. Poor folks like me got a decent tax cut yet the media keeps hammering that the tax cuts were for the rich.
Mathis
Mathis   |     |   Comment #88
#50, I thought you are Trump supporter. The MSM will drive you crazy with the lies 24/7, stop watching them. They will scramble your brain in unrecognizable mush.
111
111   |     |   Comment #45
D1, #42 - Yes, and just as humorous were all the "vestal virgin" new Democrats, dressed in white, anxiously fixated on Pelosi so that they could discern when they were supposed stand up and when they were supposed to clap. Reminded me of nothing so much as a flock of white-fleeced sheep.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #54
I'm surprised they weren't wearing those "pink" hats shaped like a.............well you know. Since all they seem to care about is their gender and not whether or not they are actually qualified to do their jobs. When AOC was asked how the NGD was going to be funded she said "You just pay for it!" You can't make this stuff up.
Betty
Betty   |     |   Comment #57
#54, they will make it a dress code for all the sheeple who voted them in power.
111
111   |     |   Comment #61
I noticed that the Dems. "New Green Deal" also wants to eliminate methane-producing cows (which of course is all of them).

https://www.drovers.com/article/democrats-green-new-deal-wants-eliminate-farting-cows

Upon hearing this, "Bessie" out here in the South 40 understandably got very nervous, stopped giving milk, and became even more gassy. So - another example of the "law of unintended consequences" by the Dems.?
DOA
DOA   |     |   Comment #62
Do away with those methane producing cows is step 1 for a greener works...Brilliant. I wonder how AOC plans to eliminates her methane producing ..s?
Sony
Sony   |     |   Comment #63
111, do you think they will invent a CO2 exhaling tax as last resort when all of the rich denounce their citizenships like all of the CEOs and upper management at facebook, google and many others, already did.?
111
111   |     |   Comment #66
Or an O2 inhaling tax - or maybe both!
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #38
This isn't surprising I wasn't expecting the FED to hike rates until their June meeting at the earliest. Powell is being pressured by 4 things at the moment which is why he is pausing.
1. Our now 22 trillion in debt
2. The world economy slowing
3. Trump complaining about interest rates
4. The stock market throwing a tantrum after the last rate hike
All these things have now combined causing him adopt a wait and see attitude. The best chance we have for more rate hikes this year is a uptick in inflation which is very possible because the economy is strong. So am I panicking and locking up long term CD's at low rates under 4%? No because there are much better rates to be had with short term CD's, bank bonuses, dividend paying stocks etc.
hugosalinas
hugosalinas   |     |   Comment #58
Question for those that are retired. When you retired, in your retirement calculations/forecast, how many years of inflation adjusted yearly expenditures did you forecast you would have left after the age you expire? For example, I assume I will live untill 100 y/o and need to have 20 years of inflation adjusted years of expenditures to cover for any unforeseen events earlier in life
963147
963147   |     |   Comment #59
I think the average is somewhere between 82-83 years old, but you never know for sure.
Sony
Sony   |     |   Comment #64
You can not predict the future anymore, the dems will decide when is your time to "go", in my opinion, after they confiscate all of your accumulated wealth.
Steve
Steve   |     |   Comment #65
If the democrats get the senate too, yours and mine futures are not certain anymore, probably we will not be able to retire at all, the personal wealth will become community property.
Thurston Howell III
Thurston Howell III   |     |   Comment #67
Simple solution. Just bury it in the backyard and they will never find it.
Steve
Steve   |     |   Comment #69
#67, you are dealing with evil people, they already know how much each one of has and were it is held. If your wealth disappear from the banks, stock market and other financial places, they already know where it is buried.
If you bought precious metals, the transactions are already associated with your SS#, nobody can hide anything anymore.
#73 - This comment has been removed for violating our comment policy.
Robb
Robb   |     |   Comment #71
Bury it on Gilligan's island...
Hillary
Hillary   |     |   Comment #72
I think some of you guys have been listening to Rush too much. Or late night talk radio? Where do you get all that crazy stuff? Nobody is going to take your money, or your car, or your house, or dig up your yard. Have a few more drinks and you'll feel better.
Beth
Beth   |     |   Comment #74
Right on, Hillary!
Cerry
Cerry   |     |   Comment #77
#72, I think you are the ones that put people in congress of that kind. If you have never read the green deal, you are the problem. Turn off the MSM TV and search on your own, you will be amused of what you are been missing.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #80
Yes we need to outlaw all the conservative talk radio. That way 100% of the media will be anti-Trump and controlled by the Democrats. Oh wait the Dems actually did try to do that.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2009/02/13/dems-target-right-wing-talk-radio/
111
111   |     |   Comment #89
Sorry Hillary (#72) - I'd like to have a few more drinks but my State just raised its liquor tax again, plus it's considering a $15 minimum wage when it can't conceivably afford it. So, even more jobs will leave Illinois. In terms of them and the national Dems. taking "my money, my car, or my house"? They're working on it right now!
Jenna
Jenna   |     |   Comment #91
Hillary, this just for you, to see that there much more life than listening to the democrats/socialists.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dK60sX_upB4
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #85
I could never figure out why they wanted to leave the island. It seemed like they had it pretty good.
111
111   |     |   Comment #87
#67- May not work, Thirsty. What if you take a "4 hour cruise" that lasts to eternity, and can't get back to dig it up?
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #78
I used 100 as well and a minimum of a 4% return on assets. I'm more than doubling that return currently. I only plan on living on the income and leaving most of the accumulated assets to my kid as a inheritance though. Most people assume a draw down period which to me is insane because only God knows how long you are going to live. Plan on living off of the income generated and you will never run out of money. Most people way overthink retirement planing IMO. Just like anything in life plan on making some adjustments on the fly when/if your assumptions don't work out the way you planned. I retired very young so I continue to save and invest during retirement and I now have twice the amount I did when I first retired.
Retired at 55
Retired at 55   |     |   Comment #84
"Just in case" savings: I opened up a new 3 yr, 5 yr, and 7 yr cd. I can always break a couple of them if something amazing occurs and rates shoot up. I guess the average yield for the three is only about 3.2%. It's not a huge amount, and I don't even need the interest. This is just a place to safely stash longer cash with no worries. You never know what might happen in the future.
Brokered
Brokered   |     |   Comment #83
#58
Without knowing your age, retirement income, expenses and investment position it's very difficult to answer your question. Generalized responses are prone to error and free advice is often worth exactly what you paid for it...nothing.
Mak
Mak   |     |   Comment #76
The Federal Reserve will chart plans to stop letting its bond holdings roll off “at coming meetings,” Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said on Tuesday, signaling another major policy shift for the Fed after pausing interest rate hikes.
Cerry
Cerry   |     |   Comment #79
I call it Trump effect, they are running scared not to be dismantled. Trump forbade them to send the interest collected money out of USA and to the globalists. Stay tuned, there is more to come.
111
111   |     |   Comment #90
There have been some WSJ articles in the past couple weeks indicating that Powell plans to leave the Fed's bond portfolio drawdown at a higher level than had been stated earlier (https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-officials-weigh-earlier-than-expected-end-to-bond-portfolio-runoff-11548412201)

This almost certainly has nothing to do with Trump. By now Trump knows he can't fire Powell - he's said so. I think Powell realizes on his own that while it's not the responsibility of the Fed to "fix" the stock market, the US market indices do provide a valid leading indicator regarding where the economy might be going, and deserve to have some attention paid to them by the Fed for that reason.

I nearly always support Trump and conservatives, but this idea that the Fed is "running scared" about being "dismantled" is like something out of either the Trilateral Commission of old, or the Twilight Zone - take your pick.
Concerned
Concerned   |     |   Comment #94
111, we already live in the twilight zone of $22 trillions in debt, Trump has a plan to save us from the FED's claws, just give him some slack. He does no have to fire anyone, a national state of emergency can do the trick. In mean time the national debt will go higher from here on, because of to many freeloaders in the system including the illegals that cost us at least $150 billions a year to wine and dine while most of us citizens live on the streets.

http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/rats-public-defecation-and-open-drug-use-our-major-western-cities-are-becoming-uninhabitable-hellholes
Brokered
Brokered   |     |   Comment #82
A little more that 5-yrs ago I found DA. I purchased 3.3% brokered CD's earlier that year and rates had fallen. DA led me to PenFed where I purchased 5 and 7 year CD's at 3%. The PenFed five year(s) recently matured and I moved the money to brokered CD's at 3.65%.

Interestingly, all our 3.3% brokered CD's are presently worth more than par on the open market. The 3.3% CD's were originally 10-yr and are now about 4.5 years away from maturity.

I check everyday and the brokered CD trend is down. The trend is slowing a bit and may find a base soon enough.
Mathis
Mathis   |     |   Comment #95
Cory Booker (democrat) on live television said:

"This planet Can't sustain people eating meat",....."we have to re-educate them or do way with the meat industry"
Smokeboat
Smokeboat   |     |   Comment #96
Bologna...Put your crystal balls away add go have some fun.
Junior Don
Junior Don   |     |   Comment #97
Booker is right, and harming animals is a bad way to live.
Jerry2
Jerry2   |     |   Comment #98
#97, you do not get it, don't you, it is about the control not about the meat, once they are allowed to tell you what to eat, you are their slave for life. Sober up and become independent thinker.
Junior Don
Junior Don   |     |   Comment #101
Jerry 2, plenty of real patriots oppose animal abuse, by any means.
???
???   |     |   Comment #99
I AIN'T gonna eat no **** insects !
Scott
Scott   |     |   Comment #100
We can all just eat each other. Many problems solved that way.
Jimmy
Jimmy   |     |   Comment #102
This is what the democrats spend on foreign aid, year after year after year for 3 decades now, this is the present bill:

$9.15 billion for international security assistance
$1.9 billion for foreign food and hunger programs
$3.1 billion for global health programs
$3 billion for international development assistance
$3.7 billion to support the economies of foreign countries
$4.4 billion for international disaster assistance
$3.8 billion for assistance for foreign refugees

And only $1.2 billions for the wall. Trump has no choice but to declare state of emergency.
Junior Don
Junior Don   |     |   Comment #103
Correction, that is $0 for the silly wall, $1.2 billion for effective border security including fencing and improved technology.
Brokered
Brokered   |     |   Comment #104
#102
Trump will be the last great President and it will be several generations before he receives the recognition he deserves.
Diogenes
Diogenes   |     |   Comment #105
Trump will lose 2020 primary and spend rest of his life in Federal prison, where he will also finally lose weight.
Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - Feb 5, 2019

After last week’s Fed meeting, it appears the December Fed rate hike may be the last one for this rate hike cycle. It’s possible that if the economic data surprises on the upside, the Fed could do another rate hike later this year. However, the odds of this doesn’t look promising.

Economist Tim Duy gave his review of last week’s Fed meeting in his Fed Watch blog post, “Setting the Doves Free”. In the review, Tim Duy said:

Recent economic data has been stronger than expected. In particular, the January jobs report...

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Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - Jan 29, 2019

This is my new weekly review of the Fed, the economy and what we can expect of future deposit rates. This used to be part of my weekly summary, but it will now be a separate post. My weekly summaries will now be focused entirely on deposit rates and deals, and they will be published on Tuesday evenings. This change was done to separate the economic and political discussion from the deal discussion. Often economic discussion leads to political discussion, and that can create lots of comments which drown out...

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Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - Jan 22, 2019

This is my new weekly review of the Fed, the economy and what we can expect of future deposit rates. This used to be part of my weekly summary, but it will now be a separate post. My weekly summaries will now be focused entirely on deposit rates and deals, and they will be published on Tuesday evenings. This change was done to separate the economic and political discussion from the deal discussion. Often economic discussion leads to political discussion, and that can create lots of comments which drown out...

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Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - Jan 15, 2019

This is my new weekly review of the Fed, the economy and what we can expect of future deposit rates. This used to be part of my weekly summary, but it will now be a separate post. My weekly summaries will now be focused entirely on deposit rates and deals, and they will be published on Tuesday evenings. This change was done to separate the economic and political discussion from the deal discussion. Often economic discussion leads to political discussion, and that can create lots of comments which drown out...

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Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - Jan 8, 2019

This is my new weekly review of the Fed, the economy and what we can expect of future deposit rates. This used to be part of my weekly summary, but it will now be a separate post. My weekly summaries will now be focused entirely on deposit rates and deals, and they will be published on Tuesday evenings. This change was done to separate the economic and political discussion from the deal discussion. Often economic discussion leads to political discussion, and that can create lots of comments which drown out...

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