Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - March 19, 2019

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The Fed’s two-day meeting started today. The meeting announcement is scheduled for 2:00 PM ET Wednesday. In addition to the meeting announcement, the FOMC forecasts will be released. These include the “dot plot” which shows the projections of future federal funds rates. Lastly, at 2:30 PM, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be holding a press briefing.

No rate change is expected at this Fed meeting. If that happens, it will be the first break of the Fed’s quarterly rate hike pattern. The Fed has been consistently hiking rates after every other meeting since December 2017. The first four rate hikes before December 2017 weren’t regular (Dec 2015, Dec 2016, Mar 2017 and Jun 2017).

So if the meeting goes as expected, it will signal the start of another rate pause in which the Fed follows through on its message of being patient as it waits for more economic data.

One interesting thing to look for is how the Fed’s updated economic projections change. The “dot plot” will likely change and no longer point to two rate hikes in 2019. It may also indicate that a couple of policymakers are expecting a rate cut in 2019. Economist Tim Duy had this to say regarding the dot plots in his Fed Watch blog post:

With growth downshifting, inflation soft, and rising concerns about deteriorating inflation expectations, the Fed has the opportunity to sharply pull down the expected path of rate hike and wipe out the two 2019 rate hikes expected at the December meeting.

The market has already wiped out expectations for any 2019 Fed rate hike. The Fed Funds futures show zero chance of a rate hike in 2019. This is the same as last week. The only change from last week is an increased chance of a rate cut. The futures now show a 25.6% chance that the federal funds rate will be lower by December. That’s up from 19.2% last week.

Treasury yields changed little from last week. The 1-month yield had the largest change, rising 3 bps to 2.47%. The 1-month yield is now higher than the 5-year yield (2.42%) by 5 bps. Fortunately, the 1-month/5-year spread isn’t the metric used to predict recessions. It’s the 10-2 spread (the difference between the yields of the 10-year and 2-year Treasury notes). The 10-2 spread is now 15 bps, down from 16 bps last week. A negative 10-2 spread has a history of preceding recessions.

The following numbers are based on Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates and the CME Group FedWatch.

Treasury Yields (Close of 3/18/19):

  • 1-month: 2.47% up from 2.44% last week (1.70% a year ago)
  • 6-month: 2.51% down from 2.53% last week (1.99% a year ago)
  • 1-year: 2.52% same as last week (2.08% a year ago)
  • 2--year: 2.45% same as last week (2.31% a year ago)
  • 5--year: 2.42% up from 2.41% last week (2.65% a year ago)
  • 10-year: 2.60% down from 2.61% last week (2.85% a year ago)
  • 30-year: 3.01% up from 3.00% last week (3.09% a year ago)

Fed funds futures' probabilities of future rate hikes by:

  • Mar 2019 - up by at least 25 bps: 0.0% same as last week
  • Jun 2019 - up by at least 25 bps: 0.0% same as last week
  • Sep 2019 - up by at least 25 bps: 0.0% same as last week
  • Dec 2019 - up by at least 25 bps: 0.0% same as last week
  • Dec 2019 - down by at least 25 bps: 25.6% up from 19.2% last week

CD Interest Rate Forecasts

If it appears that the Fed will keep rates steady for all of 2019, don’t expect any nearterm rate hikes on CDs. In fact, there will likely be downward pressure on CD rates. We have already seen this downward pressure in the last few months. First, Treasury yields declined in November as economic concerns grew. Then the brokered CD rates declined, and lastly, several direct CD rates declined.

I think it’s likely that this trend will continue, and the more negative economic news we get, the longer this trend will last. As I mentioned in previous weeks, this may continue until we see a steady stream of strong economic data and increased odds of Fed rate hikes. We’ll see on Wednesday how optimistic the Fed is about the economy for 2019.

The above graph shows the rate trends of the average CD rates. These average rates are based on all the rate data that we have collected over the years. This is an interactive graph. You can choose the term of the CDs (from 3 months to 5 years) and the look-back period (from 3 months to 5 years). As you can see in the graph, average CD rates for all terms have increased in the last year with the largest gains occurring after March 2018.

Note: This Fed and economic overview used to be part of my weekly summary, but it will now be a separate post. My weekly summaries will now be focused entirely on deposit rates and deals, and they will be published on Tuesday evenings.


Comments
Milton
Milton   |     |   Comment #1
There will be no more rate hikes this year or year after or in foreseeable future, reason BASEL III takes effect on March 29th, where the banks around the globe are suppose to reference their currencies on gold standard and the gold is a cryptonite to the central banks and that includes the FED. The Trump is in control of the rates, but people will never believe that and will expect rate raising this years, good luck with such expectation.
The global monetary reset will start on August 1st this year and may expire the FED mandate for good. Big changes are coming to the dollar too, so be vigilant and do not listen to MSM for any confirmations or advance notices, they work for the globalists/democrats and Trump and the American people want to neutralize them for good.
Brokered
Brokered   |     |   Comment #2
#1
What you say is total nonsense.
Brokered
Brokered   |     |   Comment #3
Though I do agree there will be no more rate hikes. OK, you got one right!!
Bill Barr
Bill Barr   |     |   Comment #4
Complete nonsense.
dollarsncents
dollarsncents   |     |   Comment #21
No, not complete nonsense, #4. Brokered's comment #3 states what #1 got right.
Jerry2
Jerry2   |     |   Comment #7
#2, as the democrats say, PROVE it is a nonsense or it is true by default. Prove the stated facts are false, otherwise, it is true.
June
June   |     |   Comment #9
Brokered, the media is going to get your last analytical reason you posses, be careful who you listen to, the democrats control the media and they have armed them with lies, fake documents, dossiers and false witnesses to get Trump, after that it is the Americans to be dealt with who want to be free.

https://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/nb/pj-gladnick/2019/03/18/ted-koppel-trump-not-mistaken-about-biased-liberal-media
Patriot News
Patriot News   |     |   Comment #5
THank YOU Milton!
Silver
Silver   |     |   Comment #6
Thanks Milton, 100% true post, let the brainwashed attack you with their own nonsense, one day they will wake up and I'm afraid it will be to late for most of them.
BASEL III is international banking and exchange rules and guidance based on the gold standard:

https://basel-iii-accord.com

https://www.federalreserve.gov/supervisionreg/basel/USImplementation.htm#Basel_III_Announcements

https://www.bis.org/bcbs/basel3/b3_trans_arr_1727.pdf

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=on0w9X_0oIk

Educate yourself people, do not depend on the media to make you dumber.
Brokered
Brokered   |     |   Comment #8
#6 et. al.
It is not a gold based standard or anything like it. Gold is discussed as a stable asset, which it historically has been. When people skim very complex data and come up with this type of nonsense I know our educational systems have failed.

Spread the manure if you want but, like so many other issues, your opinion has no value.
Educator
Educator   |     |   Comment #10
#8, how about some facts:
For the first time in 42 years, gold is being brought back into our financial system as money.

https://thedailycoin.org/2019/02/07/as-basel-iii-gets-closer-to-reality-central-banks-are-buying-gold-hand-over-fist-because-it-carries-no-capital-requirements/

https://nationalinterest.org/commentary/basel-iii-brings-gold-back-7809

https://seekingalpha.com/article/1016161-basel-iii-and-gold?page=2

https://philosophyofmetrics.com/masking-sdr-new-gold-standard/

Brokered read the third option in the last short cut, where Trump is going to make the dollar on the gold standard and please be nice to posters, they are really posting the truth, I verified all of the facts as true.
Brokered
Brokered   |     |   Comment #116
#10
An article from 2012 that simply states some use gold to pay or back debt. Parker Schanbel should be consulted!
Betty
Betty   |     |   Comment #12
Brokered, Yes, Basel III is based on gold standard by introducing the gold as exchange or replacement for money, notes, bonds and any instruments based on contracts to buy or sell anything where purchases contracts are arranged.
On the other side of the isle, this is what the democrats want to do with our savings, money and assets (after they confiscate them of course):

https://news.grabien.com/story-sen-warren-pitches-more-100-trillion-new-spending-during-bri
Mythbuster
Mythbuster   |     |   Comment #49
The International Gold Standard was abadonded as long ago as 1933 . It was never revived, because the world's financial leaders wanted freedom from the restrictions on money creation and credit market growth that the discplines of the gold standard had required. Today gold is treated like any other commodity - except by survivalists and others who continue to believe the U.S. dollar will soon come crashing down.
SLM
SLM   |     |   Comment #59
Mythbuster , it would be wise to read the basel III, you may learn that in that agreement, the gold will be treated as money, huge development for every nation who are signatories to the deal. You can walk in any bank, business, real estate and so on and bargain your deal and pay in gold if you do not have any money and it is all legal, no questions asked like where did you get the gold, it is on same level as the currency.
Also, you can buy, sell. carry or deposit gold instead of cash, do you see the difference now?
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #11
Well all countries would have to agree to return to the gold standard for this to work and the U.S. would have to increase it's gold reserves well in advance of any such move. If not executed properly it could cause massive inflation or deflation all depending on where the price of gold was set. It's fun to think about but I highly doubt you could get the rest of the world to agree to it. You can't even get 5 people to agree on what pizza toppings to get let alone a return to the gold standard.
https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/precious-metals-investing/gold-investing/trump-gold-standard/
It seems to me that with the central banks and the IMF the globalists are trying to create a one world currency akin to the Euro. That scares me more than anything else as we would then become like Germany and paying high taxes to bail out all the poor countries around the world.
Betty
Betty   |     |   Comment #14
deplorable 1, 27 nations are already in adaptation of BASEL III (officially starts on March 29th 2019), including USA. Trump said he wants to get read off the FED, this is his best chance to do that. If a government agrees to BASEL III, they already agreed to exchange currency as gold and wise versa. Country with lots of gold can sell it on the open market as currency to anyone who adapted BASEL III and pay with it as having hard currency, without having any hard currency. It is a win win situations for the poor country with gold reserves and big countries with hard currency without much gold in reserve. USA is going to reset the dollar, starting on August 1st 2019.
Nothing
Nothing   |     |   Comment #28
The Gold Standard was tried (as well as silver, etc.) and they have all failed...trust is the key today...look at 2008-9 when no accepted 90 day commercial paper
bigballs
bigballs   |     |   Comment #33
The fiat standard has been tried for a thousand years or more, they always fail (https://trader2trader.co/tag/historic-graphs/page/3/)
For some strange reason it always goes back to gold? Strange. That's not failure. That is Capitulation and Vindication. I pity your for basing all possibilities in the universe on your short lifespan.
bigballs
bigballs   |     |   Comment #32
When people are starving it pretty easy to get them to agree on anything, that includes walking into a gas chamber.
Mythbuster
Mythbuster   |     |   Comment #50
For now, despite all the hype about some new currency - like the Chinese Yuan, or some basket of international currencies - the reality is that the U.S. Dollar remains the international currency of choice. Unless and until the U.S. is no longer regarded as the world's #1 stable economy, the Dollar will remain king. Whenever some other country experiences economic upheaval, its residents and businesspeople rush to the Dollar for safety. That happened even after the collapse of Soviet Communism, when anyone in the former Soviet Union, including Russia itself, scrambled to buy Dollars if they could. After all this time, the Chinese government still remains very heavily iinvested in the Dollar. Most internantinal transactions are still Dollar denominated and there is a huge international futures market where firms can hedge against their own currency devaluations versus the Dollar. Actions speak louder than words.
SLM
SLM   |     |   Comment #61
#11, you are missing the point, the gold is same as cash in any currencies that are on BASEL III deal. The gold is MONEY not commodity to stash away, big difference, than what you are thinking or pointing out.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #75
@SLM: Just try to go to any bank and pay your bills with gold. Once the laughing dies down they will tell you to go to the nearest pawn shop or jeweler to convert it to cash.
Jess
Jess   |     |   Comment #18
#1, thanks, I agree with you, now the central banks around the globe and the FED can not just print notes as legal tender, the printing must be backed by assets, like gold, silver, oil and other commodity, no wonder the central banks are in panic mode of buying gold, it used to cost them $0.00 dollars to print a trillion dollars and start collecting interest on that trillion and make unlimited profits in returns. Trump is right, the treasury can print the dollar backed by commodities, gold, oil, real estate and the working people of America as collateral.
123
123   |     |   Comment #25
#18
Whoa, hang on, I don't think "...working people of America as collateral," would go over too well with the 'working people'. That sounds like slavery, doesn't it?
The FED
The FED   |     |   Comment #30
#123, you are working and are being paid in dollars and your contribution to the society has contributed to the value of the dollar, what slavery are you talking about, you are the guarantor for your own accumulated wealth and when more and more contribute to the America GDP the more value the dollar holds. The people's intellectual and physical work created the value of the dollar. The people who take (receive money without work) are diminishing the value of the dollar, because we have to share the wealth or print more dollars for the lazies.
It is very clear to me.
bigballs
bigballs   |     |   Comment #35
You really need to study something called "D-e-f-i-c-i-t S-p-e-n-d-i-n-g" and GDP to debt ratio and what that does to the markets confidence in a monetary assets ability to pay back long term debt.
Hanna
Hanna   |     |   Comment #36
bigballs, the deficit arises from to many people suck to much money from the society without anything in return. They got addicted to gimme, gimme and gimme more without work. Over $500 billions for welfare, over $500 billions for the interest on the national debt, over $100 billions for foreign aid, over $100 billions for pork barrel project and voila, deficits as far as you can see. The democrats want socialism and only way to get there is to destroy the dollar and make everyone poor, I think this should give you an idea of why the deficits are there.
bigballs
bigballs   |     |   Comment #34
Strawman much?
Mythbuster
Mythbuster   |     |   Comment #46
"
Trump is not in control of interest rates, except very indirectly, in that he appoints the chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank, who thereafter acts independently of the White House both in theory and, historically, in practice. What evidence do you have to support your assertion, especially bearing in mind that Trump has repeatedly, in public, derided chairman Powell when rates were raised?
SLM
SLM   |     |   Comment #64
Mythbuster, when there is full employment, the economy is steady or rising, the inflation is not an issue, the FED mandate is null and void, if they raise the rates, the economy will suffer and big lay offs will occur and the inflation will rise because of all of the above, do you see the relevance in the connections, that is what Trump said to Powell, leave the rates alone or suffer the consequences, as you will be seen as a destructionist of the economy and we can not afford any more special borrowing from the FED to compensate for the unemployed or shorts in the taxes and therefore shortfalls in the national budget.
Smitty is Pretty
Smitty is Pretty   |     |   Comment #13
Haha, what is going on on these boards
#15 - This comment has been removed for violating our comment policy.
anonymous
anonymous   |     |   Comment #22
Haha is right! Too many people worry about what may or may not happen, of which they have absolutely no control of one way or another. People need to just get on with life and make the best of any situation.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #16
Interest rate policy is fluid and based on inflation and inflation expectations or at least it should be. Saying there will be no more rate hikes is like saying there is no inflation and there will not be anymore inflation. Since inflation has never stayed low indefinitely in the past I have a tough time believing that it will stay tame forever. Now you could argue that the FED will just keep altering the way they calculate inflation to reflect their expectations no matter what the reality on the ground is. I hope that that is not their long term plan to keep rates artificially low.
The FED
The FED   |     |   Comment #23
deplorable 1 #16, inflation, made up number by the FED, interest rates are set to benefit the globalists not Americans, GDP numbers made up by the FED to allow them to suck money from Americans by lending it to the economy to support the stocks and charge big interest rates. See how FED lowered the GDP projection from 3% to 2% this year, why, Trump told them "no more rates hikes" and to save their faces and that made them to project the GDP to be lower and keep the rates as they are.
They know their mandate is at stake, they are trying to save themselves from being greedy by their own making.

Everything will come to a hold, why, this nation can no longer afford to pay the interest on the already borrowed money. The welfare programs and the illegals suck close to $500 billions per year (excluding the entitlements), now do the math and come back with reasonable expectation.
Buul
Buul   |     |   Comment #41
The Fed is also talking about raising the inflation target. So when inflation is 10% they can say it is too low compared to their goal of 11%, and still too low at 1000% since their goal is 1001%. Maybe when inflation hits 1 million percent they will admit there is a problem and raise 0.25%. Venezuela is a positive example for them since it shows that their jobs are safe even when the population is starving
Mak
Mak   |     |   Comment #17
So the 8 of you or the one of you with 8 different names.... I think you should tell us what you're going to do about it , what is your plan? Btw, I thought the big day was in February, has it been pushed back again...:)
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #20
@Mak: Yeah funny how they never get around to that. Gold earns no interest or dividends. Dividend paying stocks would be a good choice but then they will say the stock market will crash. Some say to buy some sort of foreign currency which will also become even more worthless than the dollar. The way I figure it my dollar resets higher by about 10% a year due to wise financial moves. I'll stick with U.S. dollars worked for 50 years now.
Mak
Mak   |     |   Comment #29
dep1.... Totally agree with you, while it is difficult to do sometimes I try not to worry about things I can't control.
Btw, I do have a little gold and silver but it's minimal.
The FED
The FED   |     |   Comment #24
Mak, free financial advise can not be posted in a blog, do your own research, you know what is coming, be logical and find out, there are millions web sites with relevant info, dig deeper and it may show up for you.
AnnO
AnnO   |     |   Comment #60
"free financial advise can not be posted in a blog"

"there are millions web sites with relevant info"

lol
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #77
Funny I give free financial advice daily. Here is some: Don't buy gold because the dealers mark up the prices. Then when you need to sell it they pay you a marked down price. In the meantime it pays you no interest or dividends to hold it.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #19
I had to go look up this conspiracy theory now.
https://www.globalcurrencyresetfacts.com/
Apparently this theory has been floating around for a long time and it is used to scam people into making bad investments, buying gold and keeping the food preppers and bunker builders in business.
123
123   |     |   Comment #26
#19
We made it through 1999 and 2012, remember all the doomsday talk back then. We're still here, at least I am...……..Heh!
The FED
The FED   |     |   Comment #27
The currencies have expiration dates, the dollar has been reset 10 times since April 2, 1792 the creation year, but it was hidden from the public eyes, because the people will panic, I'll tell you what has happened to the dollar since the last reset in 1971-73, that dollar purchasing power has fallen to 5 cents. Now you know, forget the conspiracy theories, they are for entertainment purposes only, look for the real deals, when the purchasing power of the dollar falls to $0.00, a reset has happened, most people will not even know it, until few years has past after the fact.
Smiling all the way to the Bank
Smiling all the way to the Bank   |     |   Comment #31
None of those issues scare me or concerns me in the slightest bit. Because there's not a darn thing we can do about any of it. I do the best I can to save and invest, prepare for my future on a personal level, and try and remain happy and positive. I'll leave all that crazy doom & gloom talk to you fellas. I can't think of a bigger waste of time.
Hanna
Hanna   |     |   Comment #37
Smiling all the way to the Bank, just by posting your feelings about it, it shows you do care for the future, so be honest and admit, money runs our lives and you can not deny it, you work for them, you count on them for security, you save them, you protect them, you expect return with interest from them, you count to retire from the value extracted from them and you can not live without them.
Smiling
Smiling   |     |   Comment #44
Hanna (Milton, Larry, Betty, et el) I was referring to the Gold Standard posts. That couldn't be farther from my mind. It's all hogwash IMHO. And with regards to money in general, live frugally, sensibly, and there are no worries. That's just me.
Thinker
Thinker   |     |   Comment #40
#31, that is the problem with the Americans, you can not isolate yourself from the economy, money and politics.
Be proactive, your opinion matters and we can fight the evil doers, otherwise your money will disappear in a whim if the democrats take the senate too. No man is an island on its own, we all depend on each others for everything, be smart.
Smiling
Smiling   |     |   Comment #47
@Thinker.....

Poppycock.

Put down the booze. Get off of YouTube. Go get a job.

.
SLM
SLM   |     |   Comment #65
Smiling, so you confirmed that the Thinker is correct, that is what he/she said, we depend for everything on each others, perfect song to my ears. Your comment is out of order.
111
111   |     |   Comment #79
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_dates_predicted_for_apocalyptic_events

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harold_Camping
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #84
Don't the liberals predict the end of the world due to global warming every 10 years or so? Does anyone remember the global cooling scare before that?
Milty
Milty   |     |   Comment #38
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/in-press-conference-powell-to-emphasize-economy-strong-enough-not-to-need-a-rate-cut-2019-03-19?mod=mw_theo_homepage
"In press conference, Powell to emphasize economy strong enough not to need a rate cut "

Gee, or why not just say, "Savers, put your money in the stock market or else . . ."
Julius
Julius   |     |   Comment #39
Milty, FED can not raise the rates this year for sure, the deficit will rise proportionally with such action and since the economy is decoupled from the rates, only way to suggest is reverse psychology or invest your money now, the rates next year may be cut.
Bill Barr
Bill Barr   |     |   Comment #42
Powell lost his nerve when Trump attacked him
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #43
It sure looks like Powell caved in mighty quickly on rate hikes. It also amazes me that they are projecting lower inflation while oil just went up to $60. I'm starting to get concerned that the FED's new dual mandate seems to be protect the stock market and the global economy at all costs.
Panda Express
Panda Express   |     |   Comment #45
Andrew Yang gets my vote. We need a good smart Asian man in the White House.
SLM
SLM   |     |   Comment #67
Panda Express, did you hear the latest speech, he said "$1000 per month income for everyone, including anyone, minorities or majority, that way there will be no discrimination", analyze what he just said and come back to explain it to us, what is his agenda.
In my opinion that is racist, income based on idea not merit, it does not matter if you have skills or not, same income for everyone, UTOPIA on steroids.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #82
@Panda: Finland just went bankrupt after giving people "universal" pay. This is why Socialism always fails folks. I wonder which liberal utopia will be the next country to fail?
https://legalinsurrection.com/2019/03/finland-government-collapses-over-universal-health-care-costs-bernie2020-hardest-hit/
Anon123
Anon123   |     |   Comment #48
The core CPI and more recently core PCE index (used for FED inflation measure) has excluded goods with high price volatility, such as food and energy since the 1970's. So oil price has not been relevant to FED for a long time now. Fed tries to use long-term inflation figures, which is why it's not looking at short-term volatile components.
Understood
Understood   |     |   Comment #52
Thank you Anon123. Now I understand.
AnnO
AnnO   |     |   Comment #62
@#52, too bad we don't know who is saying they 'understand', since you keep changing your name with every comment you make.
Understood
Understood   |     |   Comment #74
#62. Hi "Ann0." I didn't know that a user name was so important. We are all basically anonymous, correct? If I've broken any rules, I apologize. But I remain anonymous on all discussion forums for safety reasons. Being stalked by some creep is no fun. Neither is ID theft.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #56
@Anon: The price of oil effects more than just gas. Every single thing you buy must be transported and/or shipped. As the price of those transportation costs rise so does the price of goods causing inflation. So saying the price of oil is irrelevant to inflation is not correct.
Anon123
Anon123   |     |   Comment #94
@deplorable1, #56, nowhere did I say that price of oil only affects price of gas. As much as price of oil affects prices of other products and services, those prices ARE included in the inflation figures that Fed is looking at. Oil itself (and food) are apparently too volatile however and make the CPI a worse indicator of long term inflation than core CPI / PCE.
Bill Barr
Bill Barr   |     |   Comment #53
Powell is disgusting. A few words from Trump and he completely caves. The man is cowardly.
SLM
SLM   |     |   Comment #66
deplorable 1, you still believe in dual mandate from an entity controlled by the greedy globalist, lol.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #78
Hey SLM I don't even believe the FED is a independent entity. I think the president has much more influence on the FED then they would have you believe. I said this during the Obama years and I'm saying it now. Obama wanted rates at 0% and Trump wants them at 2.5% due to the high debt load he was saddled with.
George
George   |     |   Comment #87
#78, finally you learned, the FED is our enemy, higher interest rates are counter productive to our savings and the value of the dollar. You went wild few months back predicting 4% interest rates by the FED, I'm glad you wised up.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #92
Actually George I would like to see spending cut, debt paid down and interest rates at 5-6%. In that order. The problem is that people are demanding far too much from the government these days(aka Socialism). Gone are the days of our founding fathers when people were self reliant and innovative. Now folks seem to need their hand held by Uncle Sam from cradle to grave and they keep crying for more. Maybe the new breed of Socialist Democrats will get so crazy that folks will start rejecting their ideology and go back to conservative values again. One can only hope.
Hoody
Hoody   |     |   Comment #51
"Powell 'Throws In The Towel' On Growth & Inflation, Sees No More Rate-Hikes In 2019"


So far Navy still has the 40mo IRA CD, don't "qualify" for that but have other's there, also used that to prod my other local CU into giving me the rate.

At least I still about 2 yrs on my 3.1's at navy :)
larry
larry   |     |   Comment #71
Hoody (Comment #51) Yep, got both the 40 month IRA CD and the 17 month CD. Plan on doing a max contribution for year 2018 soon. I wish it was a Roth, but in this environment investors can't be real choosy. Got some TTD in my Roth with Merrill and I'm real happy with that because it continues to destroy the market gains by being up ~100% YTD.
Jennifer
Jennifer   |     |   Comment #54
My maid (she went to a now discredited eastern european university, but has a degree in economics from there) suggested that i do a direct transfer of 100 bucks from one of my IRA's over to Navy Fed to "lock in" their 3.75% (because you can add money in the future up to the limit).

I took her advice and have the 3.75% all set just in case i want to move more IRA money into it next year.

She said she doesn't anticipate anymore rate hikes for at least 18 months!
Bill Barr
Bill Barr   |     |   Comment #55
The inflation in oil will soon spread to all other areas. The FED, once again, is way behind the curve on inflation.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #57
@Bill: Which is why I don't think they will be able to stay on hold all year long. I bet they end up hiking sometime after June. The dot plot suggests one hike in 2020 so we should at least have steady interest rates for 2 years.
Bill Barr
Bill Barr   |     |   Comment #70
I agree with this comment.
SLM
SLM   |     |   Comment #68
Bill Barr, the inflation is not good enough reason to raise the rates, now imagine how much that raise will cost the interest on the national debt, unimaginable number.
Do you people think of the national debt as reason not to raise the rates ever, it will mean the end of the dollar after a missed payment on the national debt and with that, all of your savings will be nullified to $0.00.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #73
@SLM: Yes the debt is a big problem which is why I was so angry at Obama for doubling it virtually guaranteeing low interest rates indefinitely. The debt is also why I don't like the Socialist programs that created it in the first place. Now if the dollar was worth $0 all other currencies would be in negative numbers.
gregk
gregk   |     |   Comment #85
If Trump serves two terms (God forbid) you can bet he'll easily exceed the debt load Obama accumulated, - and do so during a period of economic expansion rather than in the recessionary conditions (inherited from Bush Jr.) Obama was charged with reversing (and successfully did so).
George
George   |     |   Comment #88
gregk, obama was a globalist traitor, you will learn soon enough, keep this post as a history reminder of the truth posted here.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #96
@Gregk: All the Obama fans always love to point out how Obama "inherited" Bush's debt which is true yet they somehow fail to realize that Trump inherited Bush's and Obama's debt combined to the tune of 21 trillion! Not only that but we now are having to pay higher interest on that debt as well. Democrats never want to cut any spending and only think of things that add to the debt. Even if spending remains level the interest on the debt alone will cause it to keep rising even without new spending. The only solution is the backtrack the Socialist programs and cut spending in all areas of government thus paying down the debt. How is medicare for all, free college and the new green deal going to do anything but triple the debt and exasperate the problem?
#97 - This comment has been removed for violating our comment policy.
#106 - This comment has been removed for violating our comment policy.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #91
@Gregk: You better hope that Trump gets a second term. We would have negative interest rates and a recession currently if he didn't get his first term. Did you like 8 years of 0% interest rates with Obama? At least we now have a good economy, higher interest rates, tax cuts, lower unemployment and better paying jobs. I will never understand the never Trumpers who seem to deny any good news or even worse attribute any good news to Obama. As for the debt it is much harder to pay it down when the interest on it is staggering after big O added 10 trillion to it. We have to pay interest on that debt now.
LGBTQ
LGBTQ   |     |   Comment #95
gregk. Finally a voice of reason. These guys can't seem to accept the fact that Trump has also added trillions of debt. And the border patrol advises they are now releasing thousands of immigrants because of overcrowding. The economy is slowing considerably. The last GDP stats show it only grew by 0.4%. Only 20k jobs added at last count. Trump's world is beginning to crumble.
Sunny
Sunny   |     |   Comment #100
gregk #85, I think you need some facts of who obama is/was, listen carefully, you may learn the truth.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ngKBAXhj36Q
Disgusted
Disgusted   |     |   Comment #109
Thanks Sunny great disclosure about Obama/Soetoro/Husein/Traitor.
111
111   |     |   Comment #76
#54 - Your maid might be on to something. First, IF this would be your first Navy IRA, they add a $100 bonus if you start it with $100 or more. That bonus is not connected specifically to this particular 3.75% CD offer.

Second, a direct transfer would work, but might take a while to process. If you are concerned that Navy might withdraw the 3.75% offer before your direct transfer paperwork is settled, you might consider instead starting that IRA with a $100 contribution (at this point in time, I believe it could be for either 2018 or for 2019). You can do this ONLY if you have earned income of $100 or more for that particular calendar year.

Now if you DON'T have $100 or more in earned income for calendar year 2018 or so far for 2019, then you need to have someone pay you at least $100 for some kind of work in 2019. For example, you could give your maid $100 worth of fashion advice, and she could write you a check for that amount. In that eventuality, I'd advise listing the $100 as income on your 2019 income taxes next April.
#81 - This comment has been removed for violating our comment policy.
George
George   |     |   Comment #89
111, BAD ADVICE, in order for that $100 to be income from business, SS and MEDICARE taxes must be paid first, second, if that is an income from hobby (not real business) and AUDIT will be automatic and she could find herself in big trouble for lying on her tax return and be put on audit list for the next few years, do not over do it for lousy $100 or even $1000, the check received from your maid is not and income as per IRS codes.
larry
larry   |     |   Comment #93
George (Comment #89) Absolutely not. Have you ever heard of LLC all that will be written off if you have a competent accountant. Audits and Big Trouble, I doubt any of that will happen. Guess you haven't heard the latest and that is the IRS is severely underfunded.
Sunny
Sunny   |     |   Comment #101
larry, if the LLC makes no money there can not be any retirement account set legally, with what money are you going to fund the retirement accounts?
George is right, Jeniffer has no business being in business without being registered as business, I hope you can get that as fact, I used to be an accountant and IRS thrives on those hobby business claims and the taxpayers are audited for anything after IRS put you in the scammer's file.
111
111   |     |   Comment #98
George, #89 - Sorry, but you are incorrect. I researched this last year, because I too wondered whether the rules for IRA contribution that require "earned income", also require that such income be "W-2 Income" - in other words, income that must have Social Security and Medicare taxes be paid on it. I found that they DO NOT require this. 1099 income, or even income that is not on a 1099 (I believe for payments below $600/year, a 1099 is not required), qualifies as earned income for the purposed of IRA contributions.

Now above a certain amount of income per year, one may have to pay self-employment tax, but that's a different matter.

Bottom line, if A and B agree that A will pay B $100 for doing a specified amount of mental or physical work, that is earned income according to the IRS definition, for IRA purposes. Of course as I stated, B must also list this as income on his tax return.
Nothing
Nothing   |     |   Comment #99
All, and the IRS has nothing to do but audit $100 income (which in this scenario is actual income). Seriously? You all must not be doing your own taxes and not doing a risk analysis...oh well, it's only money...and not mine, i.e. yours! Why not also transfer $100 from an existing IRA? And, even if that costs as a distribution...what's the down side compared to the benefit? Go get the extra $100 dividend and have a place to add IRA money for 40 months
Jred
Jred   |     |   Comment #107
Nothing, I know persons who have been audited for $1.00 discrepancies in reporting the income, do not be arrogant with the authorities. The audit start with computer match up of all income reported to IRS by all sources and your income reported to IRS, would there be a minute error, it is caught up by the computers and auto sent correction notice(s), if you do not correct it or reply to it, a person to person audit is set up by IRS.
Sunny
Sunny   |     |   Comment #102
111, wrong on all assumptions, income must be earned from self employment or outside employments, 1099-MISC, 1099-INT, 1099-DIV, 1099-RET and many other 1099s are excluded. Your research must start at IRS web site if you want to know the truth.
Sunny
Sunny   |     |   Comment #103
111, The short cut I included did not post, here it is again:

https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/plan-participant-employee/who-can-participate-in-a-simple-ira-plan
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #83
If it is your first one make sure to snag the $100 IRA bonus. MACU has a youth term deposit at 3.75% APY as well capped at $100,000. Got to love the add-on CD's.
gregk
gregk   |     |   Comment #86
What are the conditions of the youth CD?
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #90
For kids up to the age of 27. The youth 5 year 3.75% APY is a term deposit not a term deposit plus but you can still add-on up to $10,000/yr. It is capped at the same $100,000. In order to max it out you would have to open it with $50,000 min. It does not count towards the $100,000 max cap per person for the TD+ account either. I think you have to set up a custodial account for the minor.
Call IRS
Call IRS   |     |   Comment #104
Jenifer, larry and 111, are misinforming you, please read this and call IRS if you do something like that, otherwise, you may be audited by IRS.

https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/plan-participant-employee/who-can-participate-in-a-simple-ira-plan
larry
larry   |     |   Comment #105
Comment #104 Seriously, call the IRS? Like they are going to help you. That's why I said a competent account which will inform you whether you do this or that legally.
Jred
Jred   |     |   Comment #108
larry, you want to put someone in trouble by giving her wrong info, IRS does not kid around, be careful when taxes are reported, the computers catch all of your questionable deductions or income or investments.
Disgusted
Disgusted   |     |   Comment #110
larry, what's wrong with calling IRS, I call them all the time around tax time to make sure I'm in compliance and they have answered my questions with details and even gave me few advices for the next year.
larry, it seams you are afraid from them, have you done something naughty and do not want to call them?
larry
larry   |     |   Comment #111
Comment #110 Simply put, the IRS will not give you legal advice. If you and #108 are to cheap to hire a competent accountant then you will get what's coming to you. The reason why you do an LLC is you pay LESS taxes and if someone tries to sue you that party cannot go after your personal wealth. Only dummies pay more taxes to the IRS/State then you should. Enjoy!
Truth Patrol
Truth Patrol   |     |   Comment #114
larry is cheating on taxes, afraid to call the IRS, uses 1099s to fund illegally IRA(s), uses phony LLC to cheat on taxes, what else larry?
Joe
Joe   |     |   Comment #58
The reason the rate is changed IS to control inflation... So, now that and how it can be perceived no inflation coming is beyond me.. I suspect has more to do with Trump whining about the fed rate. Having said that, Get ready for uncontrolled inflation... Enjoy.
SLM
SLM   |     |   Comment #69
Joe, please read comment #68, thanks.
Bill Barr
Bill Barr   |     |   Comment #72
If the FED does not raise rates soon, we will have lethal inflation.
Jimmy
Jimmy   |     |   Comment #80
Bill, I don't care. Just show me those cd's paying 17% interest.
Bill Barr
Bill Barr   |     |   Comment #112
What good are CDs paying 17% if inflation is 18%?
The Phillips curve
The Phillips curve   |     |   Comment #113
Comment #112 It's not and that is why you want hard assets to offset this...which you can offset currency risk with ???
Joe
Joe   |     |   Comment #63
When the Fed wants rates higher, it does the opposite. It sells its securities to banks and consequently removes funds from their balance sheet. This gives banks fewer reserves which allow them to raise rates. Since 2015, the Fed has been raising interest rates. It does this to control inflation.
NGR
NGR   |     |   Comment #115
The brainwashing of the Americans continues, from MSM to the universities, no wonder the young people want socialism, they have been indoctrinated to the bone.

https://www.thecollegefix.com/american-political-thought-course-at-cu-denver-removes-all-white-men-from-curriculum/
Brokered
Brokered   |     |   Comment #117
#115
You can smell the fear on this forum. It's quite amazing how quick people are to embrace the dumbest ideas, from the dumbest people. It's the primary way politicians gain power. Scare the daylights out of you, promise only they have the solution and then, after they are elected, go about controlling YOUR life for the direct benefit of THEIRs. Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Vote D and find out how it all works!
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The February jobs report was a disappointment. The report showed only 20,000 jobs were created in February which was way below the consensus forecast of 178,000 jobs. The report did raise concerns among investors that more weak economic reports might be coming. However, some economists...

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In a Tuesday speech, Eric Rosengren, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, suggested that the Fed will be waiting several meetings before it decides on another rate hike. The following is an excerpt of his speech:

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If the slowdown is minor, it might...

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There were more signs in the last week that the Fed won’t be raising rates anytime soon. In recent speeches, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed officials have suggested that the Fed will be exercising patience in the first half of this year. As economist Tim Duy described in his latest Fed Watch blog post:

The best chance we have for a rate hike in the second half of this year is if the economic data surprises on the upside. In the speeches, the Fed officials have been optimistic about...

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