Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - July 16, 2019

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Today’s speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his Congressional testimony last week have been interpreted by the markets and by many economists that the Fed will likely cut rates at its July 30-31 meeting. In the speech delivered today at a conference in Paris, the Fed Chair essentially repeated what he said last week about his view of a strong U.S. economy with growing risks:

In our baseline outlook, we expect growth in the United States to remain solid, labor markets to stay strong, and inflation to move back up and run near 2 percent. Uncertainties about this outlook have increased, however, particularly regarding trade developments and global growth. In addition, issues such as the U.S. federal debt ceiling and Brexit remain unresolved. FOMC participants have also raised concerns about a more prolonged shortfall in inflation below our 2 percent target.

The minutes from the June Fed meeting were released last week, and according to this MarketWatch article, the “minutes just show that Powell has the backing of most Fed officials for a move.”

However, not everyone on the Fed has bought into a rate cut as this Bloomberg article describes:

Two regional Federal Reserve bank chiefs pushed back Thursday against the growing consensus view that the central bank is all but certain to cut rates at its July 30-31 meeting, contending the economy is doing just fine and inflation is near their 2% target.

This push back on a rate cut may not be enough to prevent a 25-bps rate cut, but it should at the very least prevent a 50-bps rate cut at the July meeting. If the Fed does follow through on a rate cut, it may not signal that we’re beginning a rate cutting cycle with a recession and a long period of zero rates. In the period from 1995 through 2000, the target federal funds rate was only cut a few times. The rate never fell below 4.75%. A peak of 6.50% was reached in 2000. So if the economy stays strong and the uncertainties and risks mentioned by the Fed Chair diminish, it’s possible we won’t see any more than two or three rate cuts this year, and then we’ll return to a pause period and then back to rate hikes.

If the Fed does cut rates in July, it’s important that we recognize that it’s an insurance cut, and if the insurance “works”, there won’t be too many additional cuts. In his recent Fed Watch blog post, the economist Tim Duy provided an interesting description of this insurance rate cut and why it may not lead to that many additional cuts:

The Fed is taking out insurance against increasing downside risks given that the cost of that insurance is cheap given low inflation. Eventually future rate cuts will have to be about the data not just the risks.

The markets have definitely bought into a July rate cut. The Fed Funds futures markets (via the CME FedWatch Tool) are still pricing in a 100% chance of a rate cut at the July meeting. The odds of a larger rate cut have gone up quite a bit from last week. The odds that the rate cut will be at least 50 bps are now 27.6%, up from 3.8% last week. By the end of the year, the odds that the federal funds rate will be at least 75 bps lower are now 54.0%, up from 40.5% last week.

Treasury yield changes were mixed. All of the short-dated yields fell from last week with the 6-month and 2-year yields falling the most (both fell 9 bps). The long-dated yields had slight gains. The 10-year yield increased 2 bps, and the 30-year increased 7 bps.

Due to the fall of the 2-year yield and the rise of the 10-year yield, the 10-2 spread (the difference between the yields of the 10-year and 2-year Treasury notes) widened from last week. It’s now 26 bps, up from 15 bps last week. A negative 10-2 spread has a history of preceding recessions.

The following numbers are based on Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates and the CME Group FedWatch.

Treasury Yields (Close of 7/15/19):

  • 1-month: 2.17% down from 2.22% last week (1.87% a year ago)
  • 6-month: 2.06% down from 2.15% last week (2.16% a year ago)
  • 1-year: 1.95% down from 2.00% last week (2.37% a year ago)
  • 2--year: 1.83% down from 1.92% last week (2.59% a year ago)
  • 5--year: 1.84% down from 1.88% last week (2.73% a year ago)
  • 10-year: 2.09% up from 2.07% last week (2.83% a year ago)
  • 30-year: 2.61% up from 2.54% last week (2.94% a year ago)

Fed funds futures' probabilities of future rate CUTS by:

  • Jul 2019 - down by at least 25 bps: 100% same as last week
  • Jul 2019 - down by at least 50 bps: 27.6% up from 3.8% last week
  • Sep 2019 - down by at least 50 bps: 71.1% up from 57.1% last week
  • Dec 2019 - down by at least 50 bps: 88.8% up from 82.7% last week
  • Dec 2019 - down by at least 75 bps: 54.0% up from 40.5% last week

CD Interest Rate Forecasts

CD rate cuts have continued in the last week. It appears that most banks and credit unions are probably anticipating a Fed rate cut in July.

In the last week, we have seen several more banks and credit unions cut their CD rates. Just a few recent examples of institutions that have cut rates include Ally Bank (5-year fell 10 bps to 2.75% APY), Synchrony Bank (1-year fell 5 bps to 2.50% APY), Comenity Direct (5-year fell 10 bps to 2.95% APY, 1-year fell 15 bps to 2.65% APY), First Internet Bank (5-year fell 8 bps to 2.84% APY, 1-year fell 5 bps to 2.63% APY), and Alliant Credit Union (5-year fell 15 bps to 2.70% APY). I’ll have more details later today in my CD summary.

As I mentioned above, it’s possible that an “insurance rate cut” will work to prevent a major economic slowdown. In that case, we could only see one or two Fed rate cuts this year. If that happens, the Fed could eventually get back to talking about rate hikes and CD rates should start rebounding. In this scenario, it may not be wise to load up too heavily on long-term CDs.

The current odds still point to a substantial period of falling rates. So I still think it makes sense to allocate more of your savings into mid-term and long-term CDs rather than savings accounts and short-term CDs. There are still a few 3% CDs that are nationally available at both banks and credit unions. I don’t think 3% CDs will be around for much longer. A 3% CD special may pop up now and then, but I’m afraid those specials will probably be rare.

The above graph shows the rate trends of the average CD rates. These average rates are based on all the rate data that we have collected over the years. This is an interactive graph. You can choose the term of the CDs (from 3 months to 5 years) and the look-back period (from 3 months to 5 years).

As you can see in the graph, average CD rates for all terms are not rising like they were in 2018 and early 2019. Most of the averages are now starting to decline.

Note: This Fed and economic overview used to be part of my weekly summary, but it will now be a separate post. My weekly summaries will now be focused entirely on deposit rates and deals, and they will be published on Tuesday evenings.


Comments
Bill Barr
Bill Barr   |     |   Comment #1
There is no economic reason for a rate cut: blockbuster jobs report, record high stock market, inflation strong and growing. Powell is simply caving to pressure from Wall Street and the Enemy of Savers.
QQQ
QQQ   |     |   Comment #2
So very true. What frosts my grits is their asinine "inflation target". This is as a result of modern economic theory about the way things should work. I am old enough to remember when any inflation was an enemy of Americans. How much smarter our leaders were in those days. Today's economic geniuses believe some inflation is a good thing. They also do not blink twice in the face of tens of trillions of dollars of debt. That is just more of the same brand of genius. Today's economic deep thinkers: WABOA
Inflationary Rhetoric
Inflationary Rhetoric   |     |   Comment #4
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2018/11/30/672366380/episode-879-the-secret-target
Mak
Mak   |     |   Comment #3
What about the money people invest in the stock market, aren't they saving?
???
???   |     |   Comment #6
yeah and likely compounding
Top1%
Top1%   |     |   Comment #31
Not for long... biggest bubble and crash in history is coming soon. I'm less than 25% in market and will be at 10% or less by year end.
moneymat
moneymat   |     |   Comment #38
#31, of course, the market always moves in cycles, but nobody knows exactly when. And a big correction may be overdue. But "market crash", I think it would take a catastrophic world event or for the U..S. to default on it's debt.
Reality
Reality   |     |   Comment #42
#38
There's never a default when you can create (fiat currency) the money you need. When will people realize governments do not have a household budget with limitations based on earned income. You can't borrow your way to success but governments can.
DCGuy
DCGuy   |     |   Comment #69
State governments cannot operate "in the red:, but the Federal Government can. if the Federal Government was forced to "balance the books" every fiscal year, the economy would shrink dramatically. Perhaps becoming a third world economy is a better option?
willy12
willy12   |     |   Comment #39
I'm sure you can easily triple your money at the very least since you can predict huge crashes better than anyone else.

SMH.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #51
Not really Mak because the stock market has a risk of loss. FDIC insured savings has 0% risk. This is the very reason I do both. You should have at least one year of living expenses minimum in savings before even thinking about investing. I had 5 years expenses in savings before I started investing.
Mak
Mak   |     |   Comment #61
deplorable #51... I don't think you have to educate me on investing I've been doing it for a long time. I invest in a simple index fund because the market goes higher over the long term.
Yes the market will eventually drop and the people that have been worrying about that drop for the last 10 years and have missed out on heck of a run will eventually be able to say "I told you so"...:)

Btw, the market is manipulated to go higher not lower.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #66
Right my wife's vanilla mutual funds are now beating my stock portfolio comprised of individual stocks due to the overall market rising. In down years though I earn 10% while her funds are many times in negative numbers since they basically mirror the market. The advice on savings was just for anyone in general and not directed at you personally.
Never Trump Republican
Never Trump Republican   |     |   Comment #7
#1: Indeed ...

The dual mandate of FOMC is (1) Full Employment (2) Stable Prices.

Since 2009 the employment has been growing and growing and growing, and now we are at historic lows.

I see prices for commonly used stuff as quite stable.

Enemy of Savers has a new slogan "Make Savers Suffer Again".
Never Trump Republican
Never Trump Republican   |     |   Comment #9
#7 ... In response to myself ... freudian slip above ...

Since 2009 the employment has been growing and growing and growing, and now we are at historic highs. (Not lows.)
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #12
I agree with you NTR at least about the dual mandate. Obama will always be "enemy of savers to me".
Never Trump Republican
Never Trump Republican   |     |   Comment #15
#12: Didn't you or one of your buddies say that Obama was the "deporter in chief". So ... his title is decided already.

Now coming to the title / slogan "Enemy of Savers" and "Make Savers Suffer Again" ... well ... well ... well ... the title and slogan belongs to the current occupier of the White House. :-)
Ginavon
Ginavon   |     |   Comment #35
TRUMP ALREADY WON 2020 so read it and weep
#23 - This comment has been removed for violating our comment policy.
pplblk
pplblk   |     |   Comment #24
What? How is he a "racist"?
Luvcd
Luvcd   |     |   Comment #27
#23 Now if the "real" deplorable 1 stepped up one could say, "never too late to get religion."
#45 - This comment has been removed for violating our comment policy.
#36 - This comment has been removed for violating our comment policy.
Ginavon
Ginavon   |     |   Comment #34
Never Trump Republican? How PASSÉ
RCD
RCD   |     |   Comment #25
Right on could not agree More
DAfan
DAfan   |     |   Comment #5
They will have to cut rates because the additional interest the government has to pay as a result of the Republican tax cuts which added gazillions to government debt. Ironically, increasing government debt may result in higher rates in the future as rating agencies begin to doubt the government's ability to ever pay back that money.
#11 - This comment has been removed for violating our comment policy.
gregk
gregk   |     |   Comment #14
Don't count on that DAfan. The rating agencies are likely no more independent than the Fed currently is, and can similarly be relied on as useful puppets for those pulling the strings.
gregk
gregk   |     |   Comment #8
In his pretty clear propaganda effort to justify Fed rate cuts, Ken has now become a public relations arm of that disgracefully craven body.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #13
Read it again gregk I don't think that Ken is agreeing that we need a rate cut only acknowledging that Powell is now more or less obligated to do at least a .25% "insurance" cut. Not because we actually need one but because the market now expects one and the FED doesn't want to shock the market. They certainly could care less about throwing us savers under the bus though.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #10
There is no recession on the horizon and no need for a rate cut. This is just the normal ebb and flow of any economy. The FED seems to want to play the role of "world" FED rather than the U.S. FED. Powell keeps talking about Brexit and the world economy funny that isn't supposed to be in their mandate. That 2% inflation target is a joke because inflation has always been above 2% unless you live in a bubble and don't spend anything. The idea of future rate cuts being floated around is even more insane because the economy is fine. I can't wait until the next election is behind us so that politics won't be the primary driver of interest rates. Maybe we could then get back to fundamentals driving rates again in 2021. It's tough to make interest rate calls with Powell flip flopping around like a fish this year.
Deplorable Fan
Deplorable Fan   |     |   Comment #17
Dr Deplorable, were you completely unaware of global interest rates until July 1?

Because the US has had the highest rates in the world since OBAMA and yet you seem to blame OBAMA for the fact that you personally earned 0% for eight years.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #50
So now you are crediting 0% Obama with higher interest rates!?! How delusional do you have to be to try and make that connection. You know why this recovery seems to be lasting this long? Because it only started after Trump got elected. There was no Obama recovery only a stock market recovery from a DOW of 7,000. Since recoveries generally last 5 years I know that there will not be a recession until after the next election. The media will try to push a recession narrative and claim that Powell cutting rates "saved" the economy. This will be fake news.
Deplorable Fan
Deplorable Fan   |     |   Comment #54
So Deplorable, it is true? You never noticed global interest rates until a few weeks ago?

Missed the entire economic recovery? Don't brag about it.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #56
I noticed but this is the U.S. and our economy is good the FED is supposed to be concerned with the U.S., our interest rates and our economy. There is the IMF, the European central bank the bank of England for the things Powell keep mentioning. The FED isn't supposed to be the world bank. It isn't in their mandate.
mountainman
mountainman   |     |   Comment #64
D1 I appreciate your replies over the past ten months.
#71 - This comment has been removed for violating our comment policy.
Mark
Mark   |     |   Comment #130
deplorable 1 #56, the central banks around the globe are connected and they run the present world's economies. That has been going on for a while now and Trump is trying to disrupt that association by attacking them indirectly.
Why do you think he is doing bilateral deals with the country around the globe, he wants economies based on the national economies and not a one world village economy.
Dunmovin
Dunmovin   |     |   Comment #131
Regional trade agreements have been permitted under GATT...and many countries have found them useful...even before and after Trump
Brad
Brad   |     |   Comment #143
Dunmovin 131, regional is not as same as bilateral, there is a huge difference, do some studies please?
Dunmovin
Dunmovin   |     |   Comment #144
Bilateral relates to the signatories/parties...2 or more. it is separate from geographical...regional or world, latter like GATT, the former like NAFTA. Regional agreements would not be permitted unless authorized under the provisions of GATT. There are numerous regional agreements in the world...google it
Edward
Edward   |     |   Comment #18
There is no economic reason for a rate cut......but there are financial market and political reasons. The rate raising cycle is over. Any more rate raising and the stock market is toast (as witnessed Dec 2018). Why did Powell (who is a Trump lackeye), turns 180 degree after the bear market on Dec 24, 2018??? First the rate cuts are in 'autopilot', like "watching paint dry". Now it's an "insurance' due to the trade war, and Trump's 2020-reelection.

The Fed is beholden to the stock market. The stock market is expecting the rate cut at 90%. Powell will give it the rate cut. Otherwise, you will see the stock market crash like it did last December.

Again, for people who are really naive: The stock market is not a gauge for the general economy. The economy is slowing as evidenced by ISM numbers, home sales, auto sales. The stock market is a bubble fueled by cheap money pumped by the Fed.

So yes, there will be a rate cut. Wall Street is more important than Main Street. Haven't you all; learned that in between 2007-2009? Fool me once, shame on you; Fool me twice shame on ME!
DAfan
DAfan   |     |   Comment #19
Edward, the stock market is artificially overvalued about 30%, propped up by interest rate and headline manipulation. Whenever the market wobbles, the Fed and administration talking heads make statements to prevent the ship from tilting further. IMHO a measly 2% CD is better than investing in a house of cards.
Matt
Matt   |     |   Comment #20
The FED created its own mandate of 2% inflation and abolished the stable prices mandate, by doing that they became unhinged and a rogue entity. If the FED says the inflation is about 2%, it means, it is 2-3 times higher than that. The interest rates are totally disconnected from the economy and the FED is now a political body that can be influenced by political parties and the globalists.

You may not like the truth, but you have to accept it as is, the FED is not independent and they knew, they will be pushed around when they introduced money destruction mandate on it own initiative, what is the point of 2% saving rates when the forced inflation on us will always be higher than that and after the taxes, we all lose money and that is what the FED is doing currently to all of us.
Gordon
Gordon   |     |   Comment #43
Good post Matt and true, what is the point to raise or lower rates when the FED decides the base of the rates and inflation, they can manipulate as much as they want, but the truth is, they are just in a process of debasing the dollar by saying we live in a permanent 2% inflation environment and we need to print at least 2% of the present national debt (that would be astronomical number) just to keep it "even Steven" and you owe us 2% more on the top of the present interest paid by the treasury on the national debt. This means, even if we no longer borrow any money from the FED, we will owe more and more every year do to the compounding of national debt.
#21 - This comment has been removed for violating our comment policy.
Ray
Ray   |     |   Comment #30
I sincerely hope Powell does not cave to the pressure being applied by the President and commentators on CNBC.
bbb82
bbb82   |     |   Comment #32
Looks like Trump is getting the lower rates he wanted.
Ginavon
Ginavon   |     |   Comment #33
Social security income will suffer as always. They give a small increase that is immediately eaten up by rent raise every year, raise in Medicare premium and obvious out of control inflation on FOOD WHICH IS NOT EVEN INCLUDED IN THE CPI?
Gordon
Gordon   |     |   Comment #41
Ginavon, and you realize this when?
The 10s of trillions of dollars in stimulus went to the banks and wall street and the FED is happy now to collect interest on the national debt forever and it cost then nothing ZERO to throw that debt at us. Now the government is broke and can not abort to pay the interest on the national debt and you expect raise in SS and other government income?
Just wait until the dems/socialists get full control of the government, their agenda is to cut all government benefits and introduce living support income, just enough for food and utilities, you will be put in an apartment to share with other people, if you do not believe me, just visit the government web site and look for the pending bills in congress submitted by the democrats. You will be shocked of what they are preparing for us.
Truth
Truth   |     |   Comment #44
#41
If you want to be taken seriously you should list the specific bills.
Mike2
Mike2   |     |   Comment #46
Very scary, I was browsing the Government sites and came to all sorts of hidden bills inside a hidden bill that makes me wonder of why hide the truth. There are 3,787 bills in the house alone and there are nested bills inside the bills, good luck finding all of the loopholes built into it.

Example of current few bills I came across:

Control the Food - Control the People

Some of the current bills in Congress could be some of the most dangerous bills in the history of the US Congress. The upcoming lame-duck session will likely be a last ditch effort to push some of these bills through Congress to further advance a left-wing agenda. Three of the most dangerous bills in Congress are Senate Bill S.510 the Food Safety Modernization Act, Senate Bill SB 787 the Clean Water Restoration Act, and HR 5101 the Wildlife Corridors Conservation Act of 2010. These bills in Congress, if passed, could put the United State government in control of the entire food and water supply in America.

Bills in Congress - S.510

Senate Bill S.510, the Food Safety Modernization Act, could make it illegal to grow, share, trade, or sell home-grown food. World renowned microbiologist, human rights activist, and Canada Health whistle blower, Dr. Shiv Chopra said of the bill, “If accepted [S.510] would preclude the public’s right to grow, own, trade, transport, share, feed and eat each and every food that nature makes. It will become the most offensive authority against the cultivation, trade and consumption of food and agricultural products of one’s choice. It will be unconstitutional and contrary to natural law or, if you like, the will of God.”



Steve Miller of Clarkston, Georgia is currently in the process of being fined $5,000 for "growing too many vegetables". In January of this year, DeKalb County Code Enforcement officers cited Miller for growing too many vegetables and having unpermitted workers on his property. If bill S.510 passes, this will become the norm instead of the exception.

Article: Senate Bill S.510 - DC Declares War on Grandma!

Contact sponsors of Senate Bill S.510

SB 787 - The Clean Water Restoration Act

The basis of this legislation is to expand the authority of the Corps of Engineers to control the land that is “adjacent to, near, is affected by, or affects” any body of water in the United States. The definition of “waters” of the bill will include even “dry desert potholes” and any location that has water, or might have water even for a temporary period of time. This has the potential to be one of the most destructive bills in the history of Congress regarding property rights. Under the authority of this bill, the Corps of Engineers could require a permit even to mow residential lawns! Advocates of the bill claim that these statements are ridiculous because the “agency would never attempt such local control.” Does anyone believe that once a government agency has been granted “expanded authority” that they will choose not to exercise that authority?

HR 5101 – The Wildlife Corridors Conservation Act of 2010

This legislation creates a program to accumulate data pertaining to wildlife migratory patterns thus establishing “corridors” that would minimize human activity within these corridors. This means no hunting, no fishing, no camping, or any other activity within these corridors. The federal government already owns 30% of the land in the United States, but apparently that is not enough for this government. Why?

https://www.congress.gov/search?q=%7B"congress"%3A"116"%2C"chamber"%3A"House"%2C"type"%3A"bills"%7D&pageSort=documentNumber%3Adesc&page=1
Deplorable Fan
Deplorable Fan   |     |   Comment #55
Wow, does Deplorable know about this?

All home gardens would be outlawed? Would people be sent to work farms, to grow food? Scary indeed, thanks for sharing!
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #58
No DF Democrats would have us all eating "Soylent Green". This would go hand in hand with their "Logans's Run" style future they have in mind. This is what liberal utopia would be like.
111
111   |     |   Comment #79
Yeah, Soylent Green contains Charlton Hestons' 2nd most memorable line. "..it's made of people!" His 1st, of course, was "Get your hands off me, you d*mn dirty apes", from a movie the name of which I'm sure you can all figure out.

Either line applies to today's Democrats.
Dunmovin
Dunmovin   |     |   Comment #57
You “youngsters” should read some of the legislation from the Big D. Backyard gardens did not help the economy!
Deplorable Fan
Deplorable Fan   |     |   Comment #59
Dunmovin, you might want to rethink if the only measurement of good is whether something "helps the economy." Backyard gardens contribute a lot more to society than all the professional sports teams combined, even if they produce less consumer waste.
You got that right
You got that right   |     |   Comment #68
@Gordon Imagine standing in line at a grocery store and everybody has EBT cards? This will be the norm if socialism takes hold in US.
Joan
Joan   |     |   Comment #95
You got that right #68, you do not have to go far to see how a socialism/communism looks like. Venezuela, fighting for food and they all used to have similar EBT cards, what is there to buy if the shelves in the grocery stores are empty, In Russia they used to wait 10 hours for a loaf of bread not long ago under the communists rule, look at Cuba same old same old for the last 50 years, poverty as far as you can see and no hope for anything in the future.

That is what the dems have in mind for all of us, if we do not resist them, that can pull a fast one on all of us.
Thetruthwillsetyoufree
Thetruthwillsetyoufree   |     |   Comment #96
Their plan worked. Worried about some label, a word socialism instead of the 18 states with law suits trying to make Obamacare unconstitutional Bye bye being covered for preexisting conditions etc.
Milty
Milty   |     |   Comment #52
An "insurance cut" . . . is that one of the terms that just sounds great but not sure what it really means, or does it have some real economics definition? (Even irrational exuberance is more self explaining, and probably behind the demand for this insurance cut.) Interestingly, it seems this impending cut is a puzzle to a broad variety of financial web sites, even the investors (some) are admitting incredulity.
#60 - This comment has been removed for violating our comment policy.
J. Powell
J. Powell   |     |   Comment #65
I've been listening to you guys! We will be RAISING rates to new highs. Look for 5% CD's in October.
lou
lou   |     |   Comment #80
J. Powell don't **** us. If you think Trump is a bad ****, try messing with the posters on this website.
J. Powell
J. Powell   |     |   Comment #85
#80
OK...6%
Par 4
Par 4   |     |   Comment #67
All the regulars here are locked in for several years with good mid to long cd's, as well as add-on cd's. Forget the Fed. See you at the first tee.
Y??
Y??   |     |   Comment #70
If all the so called "regulars" here, as you put it, Par 4, are sitting so pretty financially, why are they all still complaining so much? Greedy perhaps or all talk and no substance?
#73 - This comment has been removed for violating our comment policy.
lou
lou   |     |   Comment #84
Everyone here should be glad you don't live in Germany or some of the other European countries with left-wing govts. Interest rates are negative; that's right, less than zero. Think about that for a second.
Deplorable Fan
Deplorable Fan   |     |   Comment #86
Did you hear about that from Deplorable?

Interest rates went negative in Europe and Japan around 2014. What is your point?
#87 - This comment has been removed for violating our comment policy.
milty
milty   |     |   Comment #88
Thought about it . . . not necessarily sure that this is the case, that is, that just left-wing governments have gone to zero or negative rates. Of course, terms like left-wing vs right-wing have different meanings for different folks (a country described as center-right populist perhaps may be seen as left-wing by another), but after a quick read of the countries having very low rates, I don't think one can blanketly assert that only left wing countries have negative rates. This is a much more complicated subject than can be defined by a sentence or two. On the contrary, I think it makes more sense to discuss the success or failure of negative rates, take for example, Japan.
lou
lou   |     |   Comment #89
The European Union and its central bank, which has the responsibility for setting interest rates, is far more liberal than our govt, as are most of the countries in Europe.
Deplorable Fan
Deplorable Fan   |     |   Comment #91
Lou is calling Trump a far left liberal? Because President Trump wants lower rates.
Hatewon'tmakeyouhappy
Hatewon'tmakeyouhappy   |     |   Comment #99
I've noticed some people on this site find it easier to generalize about complicated issues or large groups of people i.e Dems . My conclusion ...why bother engaging. Also so disappointing how quick to dismiss issues and people in black and white terms without nuance. One positive result-I am so much more thankful for the people I know.
Patriot News
Patriot News   |     |   Comment #100
Ignorance also won't make anyone happy.

Wake Up! Trump is Fighting Evil Every Day! (TM)
J. Powell
J. Powell   |     |   Comment #90
#84
I'd love to finance a new home and make money on the loan!
gregk
gregk   |     |   Comment #94
Rates on Government debt may be negative (and their Central Bank equivalent to our Fed funds rate), Lou, but not private savings accounts yields (at least not in Germany). Back around 2016 some private banks instituted negative yields for certain high value depositors, but it was never the norm. You can earn up to 1% on liquid savings deposits at select German banks currently, - which is far from negative.
#92 - This comment has been removed for violating our comment policy.
The Patriot
The Patriot   |     |   Comment #98
AP: July 18th.
Pres Trump says an Iranian drone was destroyed by a US warship in the Straight of Hormuz today.
An eye for an eye.
Josef
Josef   |     |   Comment #106
Google, the "Do evil company" has been caught planning to elect democrat candidate on their own imitative by manipulating the voters with mind interfering algorithm. Facebook is involved too.
This is what they have done, swayed over possible 10 millions votes for Hilary:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IzF7nBmwPso

And now are working to remove the Trump from office by spreading lies and derogatory info prior to the 2020 election:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kCY4OlNbB6w

Now you know, when ever you search anything there, you are subjected to inaccurate info, subliminal messages and brainwashing. Avoid, if you do not want to be a part of a scam.
Hue
Hue   |     |   Comment #108
#106, we live in an indoctrinated world, where the MSM, the social media and the search engines are instructed to confuse, lie and spread false info about any republican and our president. This has been going on for a while now and it is time to stop them in their track, otherwise, we are no longer free and have become part of the establishment to serve them and vote for them like zombies. If google spreads falls info about Trump, people no longer question it and that is what will end our society, we are being treated like uneducated, unwise, confused animals and we wait to be told what to do.
The moment you do what you are being told to do, you cease to exists as independent human and are part of the ignorant and unimportant human beings.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_hLHxNd6S0
2020
2020   |     |   Comment #110
Remember This?
N.Y. Times article by Stephen Hiltner, 10/2016
He traveled across the U.S. and found only 1 'Hillary' sign in his first 2500 miles. By the end of his trip, as he had just traversed the country, he had only seen a total of 5 'Hillary' signs. Yet, if you remember, the media continually claimed she was going to win by a landslide.
Nobody was interested then, and certainly are not interested now since the left has gone over the cliff. Trump will win 2020, no contest.
Sam Light
Sam Light   |     |   Comment #111
Remember Hillary Clinton 3 million more votes.

Clinton and Trump equally bad. Do something productive.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #120
We elect presidents based on the electoral college. How many votes were cast from illegals and provisional ballots and Broward counties? We don't really know for sure so stop throwing up the popular vote as if it means anything.
Deplorable Fan
Deplorable Fan   |     |   Comment #121
According to President Trump's Blue Ribbon Panel on Voter Fraud, ZERO illegal votes were cast for President Hillary Clinton.

You are so smart Dr Deplorable, but you do miss a lot of the basic news.
Brother
Brother   |     |   Comment #134
deplorable 1, Ilhan said she will destroy America for the next election and this is the reaction:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxW8Ytv4ntU
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #149
Jericho Green laying the hammer down! lol
i really want to know
i really want to know   |     |   Comment #109
can we switch this up?
all this democratic and far right bashing is amusing
coming from folks in these forums that have no chance
to influence either of the other. stop saying what happens if democrats win.
really republicans, what are you folks going to do IF Trump does Lose?
Y??
Y??   |     |   Comment #112
They will be in SHOCK just like Hillary was and remain in denial just like she still is.

And I'm all for President Trump, but do recognized anything is possible and him loosing in 2020 is possible.
Sam Kiggle
Sam Kiggle   |     |   Comment #118
NOBODY mentions Hillary, ever.

It is the Trump snowflakes who can't stop talking about her. Get over it.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #119
Us conservatives are used to losing we can take a hit. We had to suffer through 8 years of Obama remember? We also have to deal with the fake news and our week kneed Republicans that cave in on every issue rather than stand up for what is right. It's nice to at least have a president with some guts for once who isn't afraid to stand up to the media. When Democrats lose they are like a bunch of crybabies who can't take it. Hillary couldn't stop crying long enough to give a concession speech on election night. The media has been crying for nearly 3 years since.
Deplorable Fan
Deplorable Fan   |     |   Comment #122
Dr Deplorable, I have no idea what happened on election night 2.5 years ago.

Get Over It! (TM)
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Deplorable Fan
Deplorable Fan   |     |   Comment #123
Dr Deplorable, I realize you have no experience.

But, Trump is the definition of Poor Winner. (TM)
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Patriot News
Patriot News   |     |   Comment #136
Man can Fight, but God Always Wins!
The Shaddow
The Shaddow   |     |   Comment #132
It sure will be nice when you bored millionaires get a new hobby. Do you not have any women in your life? I can't think of a worse subject than money and politics!
Patriot News
Patriot News   |     |   Comment #133
The Patriot Life can be lonely, but doing the right thing is ALWAYS the Right Thing!
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#138 - This comment has been removed for violating our comment policy.
Sue
Sue   |     |   Comment #139
Look what kind of characters are making our laws, no wonder this nation is sinking fast.
https://www.newsmax.com/politics/ilhanomar-marriage-muslim-brother/2019/07/21/id/925323/
God Willing
God Willing   |     |   Comment #140
Interesting! Did you hear Trump say he would like to date his daughter? And the pictures of his wife's lesbian porn?

Clearing the swamp, right, as disgusting as ever! Thanks for sharing.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #146
She is lucky to be in the U.S. divorces don't work out so well for the women in Muslim countries. Yet she continues to spew anti-American hate at us. Then why is she here if she hates this country so much?
so sad
so sad   |     |   Comment #141
what this forum has become
Brad
Brad   |     |   Comment #142
so sad, that is the reality we live in, whether you like it or not it is a different story, but 99% of the posts here are true and real reflection of our politics and economics. The dems want socialism at all cost, lying, cheating, projecting their own bad deeds to others and so on. If you caught them red handed, they just shrug it off ,because the MSM sides with them and protects them and that will be the downfall of this nation, when the truth is not allowed to surface, we live in controlled mind environment.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #147
What is sad is what now passes for the Democrat party. A bunch of anti-American misfits and Socialists who want to fundamentally transform the country into something our founding fathers would not even recognize.
Tom Hard
Tom Hard   |     |   Comment #151
Yes, first Trump turning Republicans into the America is not a proud country and **** erotic affection for dictators, and now Democrats criticizing America.

Two parties, both hate this great country.
Tom Hard
Tom Hard   |     |   Comment #152
ho mo is not a curse word.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #145
The left get's all upset whenever Trump tweets something or with the latest chant "send her back". Meanwhile the fanatic 4 can say any anti-American thing they want. "some people did something" for 9/11! Using the term "concentration camps" to describe our border facilities. Numerous antisemitic remarks and Democrats can't even condemn that. A better chant would be "vote them out!" This JV squad has said much worse than anything Trump has tweeted and yet gets no push back from the media. It's no wonder that people who feel like their voices are being silenced would lash out against anti-American hate speech.
Jimm
Jimm   |     |   Comment #148
deplorable 1, you are correct in your observation, not only the MSM is biased against the GOP, but all social medias, search engines like google, bing, yahoo, they are programmed with and AI algorithm to serve only negative info about Trump and GOP, while Omar is being hidden from the news about her immigration fraud, double marriages, marriage with her brother, lying on her refugee statement of being prosecuted in Somalia, while the truth is opposite, her family was involved in prosecuting the opposition and her father was in the government and the military who was doing illegal things to the people.
She just offered to pay additional $3500 in state taxes to hush up the lies and the fraud and for being bigamist and for bringing her brother illegally into the country. That woman can outrank the biggest white color criminal in USA.
HLP
HLP   |     |   Comment #150
Thanks Jimm for bringing it up, I'm from Minnesota and she just gave us all a slap for being such a manipulator. We are ashamed to have elected her, but who new, she is a liar and a smooth talker and then, well here we are. This was in the news here today:

https://www.newsmax.com/politics/ilhanomar-marriage-muslim-brother/2019/07/21/id/925323/
Tom Hard
Tom Hard   |     |   Comment #153
Yes HLP, you keep repeating newsmax. Which says absolutely nothing about omar marrying her brother.

Did you hear Trump is a Lizard Alien? Same quality news.
Ellen
Ellen   |     |   Comment #154
deplorable 1, here is the latest news of how Mueller lied to the judge about concord law suit:

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/jul/21/robert-mueller-william-barr-rebuked-judge-case-rus/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS

The whole Mueller report is just a scam and full of lies.
Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - July 9, 2019

The June jobs report that was released last Friday wasn’t strong enough to convince the Fed to forget about a rate cut at its next meeting (July 30-31). However, it was strong enough to pretty much end talk of a 50-bps rate cut. On Thursday, the Department of Labor will be releasing the Consumer Price Index for June. The consensus is for a flat CPI with a rise of 0.2% in core CPI. If the inflation data meets or is below consensus, that will strengthen the case for a 25-bps...

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Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - July 2, 2019

The odds are very high that there will be a rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting on July 30-31. Articles such as this one by Bloomberg are not discussing the question of whether there’s going to be a rate cut, but whether the cut will be 25 or 50 basis points.

To avoid a rate cut, the economic news will need to be very favorable this month. The recent trade thaw with China is a step in the right direction. This Friday (July 5th) is an important date for the...

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Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - June 25, 2019

Even though the Fed didn’t cut rates last week, it did open the door to rate cuts for its next meeting (July 30-31) by removing its “patient” verbiage. Now, the Fed says they’re prepared to “act as appropriate” which is being interpreted to mean that they are preparing to cut rates.

After the meeting, the Fed released an updated summary of economic projections (SEP) which includes the federal funds rate “dot plot.” That new dot plot showed that many FOMC participants are thinking that rate cuts will be necessary in 2019....

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Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - June 18, 2019

The Fed’s two-day meeting started today. The meeting announcement is scheduled for 2:00 PM EDT Wednesday. Along with the announcement, the Fed will be releasing its quarterly Summary of Economic Projections, which includes the “dot plot” that shows FOMC participants’ expectations of the future federal funds target rate. Following these releases, a press briefing by Fed Chair Jerome Powell will take place. No rate change is expected at this Fed meeting. The “pause” period that began earlier this year will likely continue.

It should be noted that a Fed rate cut...

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Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - June 11, 2019

The disappointing May jobs report that was released Friday has increased the odds of a Fed rate cut. It still seems unlikely that the Fed will cut rates at its meeting next week (June 18-19). If the Fed thinks that the economy is starting to weaken, it will probably first change the language in the post-meeting statement to suggest that they are no longer planning to be patient. Instead, they may include language similar to what Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated in a speech last week. At the start of...

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