Fed Holds Rates Steady But Signals One More Rate Hike - Strategies for Savers


The Fed decided to hold rates steady at the end of its September 19-20 meeting. This was a widely expected decision. Before today, the odds that the Fed was going to hold rates steady had risen to the high 90s. This decision was also inline with the “every other meeting” rate hike strategy that the Fed appeared to put in place in June. Below is the excerpt from today’s statement with the rate decision.

the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. The Committee will continue to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy.

Some insights into the Fed’s future rate decisions can be seen in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) which includes the dot plot providing forecasts of the federal funds rate. In the June dot plot, 12 out of 18 FOMC members had forecasted a target federal funds rate (TFFR) of at least 5.50%-5.75% by the end of 2023. Today’s SEP shows 12 out 19 FOMC members forecasting this rate by December (since June a new Board of Governor member was added). Only 7 are forecasting that we have reached the terminal rate with the start of an extended pause.

One important change in the dot plot is the forecast for 2024. Today’s SEP shows that most of the FOMC members are forecasting no more than two rate cuts in 2024 (for a total of 50 bps). That would result in a TFFR of 5.00%-5.25% by December 2024.

Yet again, all voting FOMC members voted in favor of today’s policy action. There was no voting member who dissented.

More To Come

I plan to update this post later today with commentary on the SEP and the Fed Chair press conference. In addition, I’ll discuss my take on deposit account strategy in this environment. I just wanted to publish this initial post so that comments can begin.


Comments that include politics unrelated to economics may be removed. Also, comments with any rudeness towards others will be removed.

Update: The following content was added at 10:30pm EDT on Wednesday, September 20, 2023.

Summary of Economic Projections (SEP)

As I mentioned above, the most surprising change in today’s SEP was the higher projections for the 2024 federal funds rate. The median projected target federal funds rate (TFFR) by the end of 2024 is now 5.00%-5.25%. That’s up 50 bps from the June SEP. That suggests we’ll see a long pause that lasts through much of 2024.

With the Core PCE inflation for 2023 revised down from 3.9% to 3.7%, I was surprised that the median projected TFFR for 2023 remained at 5.50%-5.75%. I thought that might give FOMC members a reason to view an additional rate hike as unnecessary. Even though core inflation was revised down, the 2023 projected GDP was revised up by quite a lot, rising from 1.0% in June to 2.1% today. The 2024 projected GDP was also revised up, rising from 1.1% to 1.5%. Another sign that the economy is forecasted to be stronger is in the projected unemployment rates. Both the 2023 and 2024 projected unemployment rates were revised down. Stronger economic growth and a lower unemployment rate increase the odds that inflation won’t be falling towards the Fed’s 2% target. That appears to have been an important factor for the Fed revising its projections higher for the 2024 federal funds rate.

Post-Meeting Press Conference

In Fed Chair Powell’s opening remarks, he tried to emphasize that the fight against high inflation is far from over:

the process of getting inflation sustainably down to 2 percent has a long way to go. The median projection in the SEP for total PCE inflation is 3.3 percent this year, falls to 2.5 percent next year, and reaches 2 percent in 2026..

In the questions and answers session, a reporter asked Fed Chair Powell about inflation, and he said that the primary reason that rate hikes may not be over is stronger economic activity and consumer spending rather than persistent inflation. According to Fed Chair Powell,”

Broadly, stronger economic activity means we have to do more with rates,

The stronger economic growth is also contributing to higher yields of long-dated Treasurys. Fed Chair Powell was asked why long-dated Treasury yields have been rising. According to Fed Chair Powell, “rise in long-term yields is mostly not about inflation expectations, more about growth, supply of Treasurys.”

My Take

Based on today’s SEP, it looks like there’s a good chance that the federal funds rate will remain above 5% through 2024. Economic growth numbers are the latest drivers of “higher for longer”. If inflation surprises on the upside, that will only add to more “higher for longer” changes in the Fed’s future rate decisions. With oil prices rising and widespread strikes, it’s easy to see how inflation could surprise on the upside.

I’m still a little worried that “higher for longer” could end quickly if there’s another financial crisis or if a recession hits. The inverted yield curve is a sign that a recession will take place. The lag between the inverted yield curve and the start of the recession may be long, and that may be making it easy to dismiss the odds of a recession.

After experiencing two financial crises that have led to the Fed slashing rates to near zero, you learn not to take high rates for granted. High rates can disappear quickly in a financial crisis.

Next Four FOMC Meetings

The following table includes the dates of the next four FOMC meetings, whether they’ll include the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the odds that the target federal funds rate will be higher than today’s target (5.25%-5.50%). These odds are based on the Fed Funds futures market via the CME FedWatch Tool as of 8:00pm EDT on 9/20/23.

    FOMC Mtg Date

    Oct 31/Nov 1, 2023

    Dec 12-13, 2023

    Jan 30-31, 2024

    Mar 19-20, 2024






    Odds of a higher rate





It’s interesting to note that the highest odds of a higher rate is at the January meeting. The odds of a higher rate start to fall at the March meeting, but the odds are still close to 50%.

Treasury Yield Changes

The yields of Treasury notes (durations of 2 to 10 years) had the largest increase since the last Fed meeting. The 2-year, 5-year and 10-year yields increased 30 bps, 43 bps, and 49 bps, respectively. Treasury bill yields had mostly small changes since the last Fed meeting. The 1-month, 3-month and 1-year yields gained 7 bps, 5 bps, and 10 bps, respectively. The 6-month yield actually had a small decline, falling 4 bps.

At the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Powell was asked why long-dated Treasury yields have been rising. According to Fed Chair Powell, “rise in long-term yields is mostly not about inflation expectations, more about growth, supply of Treasurys.”

The following yields are from the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates from the Treasury website.

  • July 26 (last mtg) → Sep 19 → Sep 20
  • 1-mo: 5.46% → 5.53% → 5.53%
  • 3-mo: 5.51% → 5.54% → 5.56%
  • 6-mo: 5.55% → 5.51% → 5.51%
  • 1-yr: 5.37% → 5.45% → 5.47%
  • 2-yr: 4.82% → 5.08% → 5.12%
  • 5-yr: 4.09% → 4.51% → 4.52%
  • 10y: 3.86% → 4.37% → 4.35%
  • 30y: 3.94% → 4.43% → 4.40%

Future Deposit Rates

The top online savings account rates should be close to the target federal funds rate (TFFR), which remains at 5.25%-5.50%. As I described in the liquid account summary today, there are currently 17 savings and money market accounts with APYs that range from 5.25% to 5.33%. All but two have APYs of either 5.25% or 5.26%. Banks and credit unions don’t seem to be moving toward the top range of the TFFR with their savings account rates. If the Fed hikes again in November or December, we should see a similar number of online savings and money market accounts with APYs around 5.50%.

It’s possible that 2024 could look like 2007. In the first half of 2007, the Fed was holding steady with a target federal funds rate of 5.25%. During this time, there were around 8 online savings and money market accounts with APYs that ranged from 5.30% to 5.50%. This included GMAC Bank (now Ally). Its money market account APY peaked at 5.30%. This was also the period when HSBC Direct and FNBO Direct offered a promotional 6% APY on their savings accounts.

Even with the federal funds rate being higher than it was in 2007, banks seem to be less rate aggressive than they were in 2007. That’s especially the case with the well-established online banks. Most of them are offering savings account APYs about a full percentage point below the federal funds rate. As of September 1st, the average online savings account yield was 4.39%. The average online savings account yield is based on the Online Savings Account Index, which tracks the average APYs of ten well-established online savings accounts.

Long-dated Treasury yields have been rising in September, and yields have risen to highs not seen since 2007. This rise has been impacting brokered CD rates, and it is slowly starting to impact direct CD rates. If this trend continues, it might not be long before we see several 5%+ long-term CDs.

Looking at the CD rate trend over the last two months, CD rates are trending up. The lists below show how the top 1-year and 5-year CD rates have changed. It includes top CD rates from banks, credit unions and from non-callable new-issue brokered CDs. For brokered CDs, the top 5-year CDs had the largest rate increase. For direct CDs, the top 1-year CDs had the largest rate increases.

Top 5-year CD rates from July 19 to Sep 20:

  • Banks: 4.69% → 4.69%
  • CUs: 4.84% → 5.00%
  • Brokered CDs: 4.50% → 4.70%

Top 1-year CD rates from July 19 to Sep 20:

  • Banks: 5.55% → 5.77%
  • CUs: 5.50% → 5.80%
  • Brokered CDs: 5.35% → 5.50%

Strategies for Savers to Maximize Cash Yield

Will this trend of rising long-term rates finally drive up long-term CD rates over 5%? It looks like we’re on track for that, but long-term rates have disappointed us several times over the last year.

Since you can’t know for sure how interest rates will evolve. One strategy is to hedge your bets for both rising and falling rates.

CDs with Mild Early Withdrawal Penalties

Since you can never be sure if rates have peaked, look for CDs with mild early withdrawal penalties (EWP). For long-term CDs, a mild EWP would be six months or less of interest. If rates do go higher, a mild EWP will make it less costly to close the CD and move the funds into an account with a higher rate.

Add-On CDs for Low-Rate Insurance

Another useful strategy is to acquire as many long-term add-on CDs as you can. Open these with just the minimum deposit. If rates rise well above your add-on CD rate, you can just let the add-on CD continue without additional deposits. With a small minimum deposit, this won’t cost you much. On the other hand, if rates do fall before the add-on CD matures, the value of the add-on CD grows as rates fall. In this case, the additional deposits into the add-on CD could earn you a lot more than opening a new CD. Long-term add-on CDs can be a great low-rate insurance policy, offering some protection against falling rates.

Online Savings Accounts and No-Penalty CDs

For the cash you want to keep liquid or for cash that’s waiting to be used for CDs, Treasurys or other investments, it makes sense to keep that cash in the highest-rate savings or money market account. Just be sure that you can withdraw the funds fast so you can jump on deals that may come up.

The highest savings account rates are at the small online banks, but they often have weak ACH bank-to-bank transfer capabilities. The major online banks have much better ACH transfer capabilities, but their rates are far below the rate leaders. Look for major online banks that have high rates on their no-penalty CDs. CT Bank is a good example with its 11-month No Penalty CD that currently has a 4.90% APY. Except for the first six days, you can quickly close this CD without a penalty, move those funds into a liquid CIT Bank account, and use that money to fund a high-rate CD at CIT Bank or at another bank or credit union.

If you do open a no-penalty CD, make sure you monitor rates. If your online savings account rate rises above the no-penalty CD rate or if a new higher-rate no-penalty CD becomes available, it’s time to close the no-penalty CD and move those funds. If rates start to fall, the no-penalty CD will at least lock you in a rate for some time. The downside with most no-penalty CDs is that they have short term lengths. So the rate lock will be of limited value.

Treasury Bills/Notes

The rising yields of Treasury bills and notes have resulted in yield advantages over most CDs. A few of the top CDs still have an advantage. However, for non-special CDs at major online banks, Treasury yields are generally higher.

Treasury bills and notes have some tax advantages. Unlike CDs, they’re exempt from state and local income tax. To see how Treasurys compare with CDs when state income taxes are considered, you can use this useful Fidelity calculator.

In addition to these tax advantages, Treasurys held at one brokerage firm can be easier to manage than direct CDs held at multiple banks and credit unions. That’s especially the case for IRAs.

One downside of Treasurys is an uncertain cost if you want to access the funds before maturity. That requires selling the Treasury on the secondary market. Unlike direct CDs, there’s no fixed early withdrawal penalty.

Series I Savings Bonds

The May I Bond fixed rate was a pleasant surprise. At 0.9%, the new fixed rate is the highest it has been since 2007. This makes I Bonds purchased before November a good long-term deal. The 0.9% fixed rate will keep your rate of return above inflation.

The May I Bond inflation rate (3.38%) was much lower than last year, and when combined with the I Bond fixed rate, the composite rate for new I Bond purchases (4.30%) is a little disappointing when compared with current top 1-year CD rates. Unlike last year, new I Bonds don’t offer short-term gains that clearly outperform gains of top CDs.

The primary reason to buy I Bonds now is as a hedge against persistently high inflation, and that requires that you buy and hold the I Bonds for the long run.

An important issue with I Bonds is that you’re limited to just $10k per year per SSN (plus $5k with your federal tax refund).

I have more details on I Bonds in this post. There are ways to buy more I Bonds. This article at The Finance Buff describes how a married couple can buy up to $65k in I Bonds each calendar year via trust and business accounts.

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS)

TIPS bonds are an alternative to the I Bond. Like they I Bond, they provide inflation protection. Unlike I Bonds, there are no purchase limitations. The appeal of TIPS has gone up this year as their real yields have risen above 0%. Currently, the real yields are between 2.00% and 2.25%. On July 26, the real yields were between 1.50% and 1.85% (see Daily Treasury Par Real Yield Curve Rates). Two useful resources on TIPS are this post by Harry Sit of The Finance Buff, and this Q&A on TIPS by David Enna of TIPSWatch.

Combination of All of the Above

It’s wise to remember that no one can accurately predict future interest rates. So if you want to keep things simple, a CD ladder of long-term CDs is always a useful strategy for your safe money. If you’re worried about being locked into a low-rate CD if rates should happen to rise, choose long-term CDs with early withdrawal penalties of no more than six months of interest. You can also ladder Treasury bills/notes and TIPS.

If you think rates have more room to rise, keep more in online savings accounts, no-penalty CDs, and/or T-bills.

For your safe money (with no risk to principal), a combination of I Bonds, TIPS, T-bills/notes, online savings accounts and CDs can make sense.

  |     |   Comment #1
Thanks Ken, for your concise informative post on the Fed meeting.
Will have to decide the beginning of the month what I want to do with some available funds...
  |     |   Comment #2
Since Biden took office cumulative inflation has been almost 20%. Your money is being devalued by government induced inflation as it sits in the bank.

If you caught the highest yielding CDs every single time with perfect timing since then, an impossible thing to do, you would be lucky if your cumulative return was maybe 10% during that same period. You've lost at least 10% on whatever you had in CDs over the last two and a half years.

Diversify so you don't get creamed again before we can get these crooks out of Washington hopefully starting in November 2024. These corrupt spenders in Washington have your belt off and your pants down and many don't even know it.  Some are even begging for more.

PS: US national debt just hit a record $33 trillion for the first time in history and as I write this Democrats are demanding EVEN MORE spending increases ON TOP OF their already out of control spending increases that are STILL AT what should have been temporary emergency level because of the pandemic, or they will shut down the government.  We don't need higher taxes we need REAL SPENDING CUTS.
  |     |   Comment #3
It's always easy to blame the 'crooks in Washington' for economic troubles/issues. In fact, it's been calculated that of the billions and billions of dollars given out as Covid aid (mostly to businesses I would assume, although I also recall unemployment benefits also being continually extended), $1 out of every $7 dollars in assistance was received by fraudsters, who, for whatever reason, haven't/can't be hold to account. I would assume that much $$ being injected into the economy to those not in need might have something to do with why inflation has been so sticky.
At the time, it was probably like a mini-version of the 2008 bank 'meltdown' - too much aid is the better bet than too little to avert a royal disaster. Crystal balls are hard to come by in panicked times.
  |     |   Comment #4
"It's always easy to blame the 'crooks in Washington' for economic troubles/issues."

Especially when it's right.
  |     |   Comment #5
Especially when it's the right-wing, who's not only pulling your pants (tip of the hat to Boebart) but the wool over your eyes as well.
  |     |   Comment #10
But milty, never ignore the left wing. Been a few years, sure, but ole Slick Willy surely pulled on some pants - and perhaps something else - in order to foul the famous blue dress. And in the Oval Office no less, not just some tawdry movie theater.
  |     |   Comment #19
Slick Willy was indeed a disappointment in many ways, but at least he and his supporters didn't try to overthrow our democracy.
  |     |   Comment #48
Ohh puhlease. If people tried to overthrow our government they would have come armed.
  |     |   Comment #7
Debt EOY (End-of year) 2016: 19.573 Trillion Dollars. Debt EOY 2020 27.748: 27.748. Debt EOY 2022: 30.824. Trump debt increase per year (27.748-19.573)/4= $2.04375 trillion dollars. Biden debt increase per year (30.824-27.748)/2- $1.538 trillion dollars. Using your $33 trillion debt for 2023 would make it (33-27.748)/2.75= $1.91 trillion dollars. NET : TRUMP DEBT per year 2.04 trillion dollars, BIDEN DEBT per year $1.91 trillion dollars. The real problem isn't the Democrats or the Republicans, it's both.
  |     |   Comment #8
Your analysis leaves out the most critical fact:

When China attacked America with Covid, it was under Trump not Biden. Spending was rightfully increased to fight the pandemic war. Biden, on the other hand was repeatedly warned BY THE REPUBLICANS that the pandemic was over and more emergency spending would trigger inflation yet STILL pushed ahead with trillions of dollars of spending on an "emergency" basis when no emergency existed. That is what got us into this inflation disaster to begin with. Inflation was 1.4% when Biden took office and GDP was 6.3%. That's the economy he inherited from Trump. Since then in 2.5 years Biden's racked up 20% inflation and GDP is now an anemic 2.1%.

Every time we are in a war spending naturally increases drastically. It happened in WWI, it happened in WWII. When the wars ended, spending was drastically reduced to avoid the very problem that the Democrats created. But instead of CUTTING spending after the Chinese attack was over, Biden and the Democrats INCREASED it. And now they are trying to increase it EVEN MORE over emergency spending levels that are way too high to begin with. They want to make emergency spending levels PERMANENT AND THEN SOME.

Sorry but Biden and the Democrats get no credit for racking up war time debt WHEN THERE IS NO MORE WAR.

I guess that the Biden administration isn't happy enough with the $6 billion they just handed over to the number one sponsor of terrorism in the world Iran to help Iran get nukes.  They are demanding an increase so they can fund their terrorism better next year.
  |     |   Comment #11
So China gave the world, including China ,COVID to hurt the USA? OK, so you're saying that China created a war like WWII. I can think of a war that is still going on where trench warfare is being waged, just like WWII. Biden is racking up war time debt for armaments to Ukraine but keeping US soldiers at home. I have to disagree with you that THERE IS NO MORE WAR.
  |     |   Comment #12
China knew that Covid was transmissible human to human and cut off travel within China from Wuhan BUT ALLOWED TRAVEL OUTSIDE OF CHINA FROM WUHAN sending planeloads of infected people to infect the world including to the United States while all the while lying about the danger. An act of war.

They used one of their propaganda puppets, the World Health Organization (WHO), to broadcast their lies which they knew to be false, while they were in the middle of carrying out their attack.

  |     |   Comment #13
Unproven China Covid conspiracy theories presented by P_D as 'facts' are not the basis of any helpful economic investment planning.

There are many reasons to think the Chinese didn't handle the pandemic well but that discussion belongs on other forums not this one.
  |     |   Comment #15
I don't know where you come up with your gdp numbers.
  |     |   Comment #17
I don't know where you come up with your gdp numbers."

Come on Mak, get with the program. It's not that hard to get these facts.

Apologies as I said 6.3% going from memory.  Trump actually handed Biden 6.4% GDP growth with gigantic positive momentum which Biden promptly destroyed with massive overspending and anti-growth policies.


"Published 1:38 PM EDT, June 24, 2021

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. economy grew at a solid 6.4% rate in the first three months of the year, setting the stage for what economists believe may be the strongest year for the economy in about seven decades."

US economy grows 6.4% in Q1, and it's likely just the start | AP News


Unfortunately the Trump boom didn't last long since the "likely just the start" part didn't factor in how fast the Democrats can turn an economic boom into a bust.  Didn't take them long to squander the best economy in three quarters of a century and maybe the best opportunity for growth in US history. 
  |     |   Comment #18
Oh yeah P_D, I forgot, you like to cherry pick...;)
  |     |   Comment #24
Why are we all trying to defend one crook or another? They are all at fault both parties. BALANCE the dang budget for goodness sake and close the border before its to late, if its not already.
  |     |   Comment #25
@richter Well said! I do not think any politician has my best interests at heart
  |     |   Comment #14
"PS: US national debt just hit a record $33 trillion for the first time in history"

Can you find on this chart which years weren't new record highs at the time?
  |     |   Comment #23
A. Trump added 7.8 trillion to the debt.
B. He’s a moron who will take this country down.
  |     |   Comment #6
God bless Jay Powell. I need my interest income to combat inflation, along with social security and a small pension to make it in this world. He started off saying how inflation is so hard on us at the bottom of the food chain and he's right. The cost of living for us who retired to an entirely different world has changed dramatically, and he speaks like he knows this. Now the greedy UAW wants to completely wreck what's left of the middle class, disguised as an attack on CEO pay when in reality it's flat out greed and wage inflation on you and me. I'm glad someone, anyone, is fighting for us at the bottom who did our country right for 50 plus years working and deserve a retirement where we can sleep at night, and pay our bills in the morning.
  |     |   Comment #21
The union workers will all get their big raises now....but later will be crying when many end up losing their jobs. All this wage inflation will add to higher inflation in general.....then a collapse....then job losses. It's kind of a pattern happens over and over.
  |     |   Comment #26
Union workers, particularly in the private sector, are usually looking to get their fair share of the profits. Seems to me that in the last 40 years or so, the majority of the wage inflation has occurred at the top. So, am not so sure that higher wages for the workers alone necessarily and always leads to higher costs for the consumer. There is also the owners, executives, and shareholders who are happy to see profits go up.

Also, currently, the average UAW worker's hourly wage is $28/hour. Not exactly a fortune.
  |     |   Comment #31
You honestly don't think UPS drivers and auto workers making well over 100k a year won't affect the middle class? UPS already raised their rates 6% affecting online sellers and shoppers. Amazon raised their free shipping threshold $10 and pointed straight at UPS. All increases of any kind come right back to the consumer.

Greed is everywhere, and those on the bottom with fixed incomes are gonna get hurt. But hey, that $57 raise I get from social security next year will fix everything.

Unions are mainly in government these days. And they are watching. I can't wait to see what teachers ask for in their next contract. An 8 % raise for them is a substantially different amount than 8% for those who retired to an entirely different world. I don't have to give the Big 3 auto business, but I have no choice when it comes to poverty, oops property taxes.

GM is already on record stating the new UAW salary would be on average 82k a year. Shawn Fain laughs at it. He's also basically laughing at how capitalism works in this country, and his plan would have far reaching affects on seniors and retirees who get hurt by inflation the most.

Enjoy paying for your $50 pizza next year. I'll go looking for another credit card so I can afford mine. And then pay 30% interest.
  |     |   Comment #37
Don’t forget Congress giving themselves $5000.00 raises too
  |     |   Comment #41
@Buckeyes, I think you're looking at the high end for those UPS and UAW workers rather than the average salary. And I don't know if increasing their pay will affect the middle class or not. Does everyone here really expect middle class workers to never get a raise?

However, I agree greed is a problem and sympathize with you about your concerns being on a fixed-income. When it comes to public unions like teachers and police, whether you own or rent, increasing those public wages will more likely impact you than most private sector unions (the few that still exist). The majority of private sector workers are non-unionized, many of whom get yearly raises and bonuses. Where's the complaint about those workers? Why is there no complaint about those at the top with their million dollar raises and bonuses? To quote Sally, "All I want is my fair share...All I want is what I got coming to me...." Isn't that what we all want?
  |     |   Comment #42
@milty Not related to the OP but I dont know which I like better The Great Pumpkin Charlie Brown or Charlie Brown Christmas. Watched them as a kid and still watch them as an adult.
  |     |   Comment #36
I feel your pain. Last year my electric bill was 11$ a month and yes I did turn on the lights back then. Now it is 46$ and I DONT EVEN TURN ON THE LIGHTS ANY MORE! All the seniors in my building are using Xmas lights to save money. How far can this go? The hidden truth? I worked 44 years for my social security retirement income and my Chinese, Russian, MEXICAN, PERUVIAN, neighbors are getting almost as much as me. I heard one woman from Middle East complaining when she  found out some of us are getting $400 more. I can’t even tell them I worked and paid in for 44 years because they don’t even speak English. FORTY FOUR YEARS on a gerbil wheel and they just show up. WHAT A RIP!
  |     |   Comment #46
To put it in gerbil terms, in the White House the wheel is turning but the gerbil died. It's estimated there will be 10 million illegal aliens who will have broken into America by the end of Biden's term already more than the population of some entire countries have invaded. And last month the invasion was proceeding at an all-time record pace with no end in sight and no plan by this administration to stop it, only to encourage more.

They are breaking in at a rate of 5 to 10 times the rate they were when Trump was president and the Democrats were yelling that walls don't work. Clearly their real complaint was that they do work and that's why they wanted to (and did) stop them from being built. And now we see the results of that.

Not only have they shown no interest in stopping the destruction this invasion is causing, but they have done everything they can to maximize it.

A few more years of this and you won't recognize our country anymore. The 2024 election might be the last chance to save this country.
  |     |   Comment #49
Exactly. Now the hypocritical sanctuary cities are complaining while the southwest has been going through this for years. As more and more people wake up to the insanity of leftist policies they need to import more Democrat votes.
  |     |   Comment #50
"... estimated there will be 10 million illegal aliens who will have broken into America by the end of Biden's term" Estimated where?

I must admit, for me, this type of immigration information is not easy to come by, especially broken down by illegal vs documented, crossings vs repeat crossings, etc. Per KFF there are 20.8 million non-citiizen immigrants, where noncitizens include lawfully present and undocumented immigrants. However, of the 20 million KFF doesn't state how many are lawfully present vs undocumented nor when these immigrants first got here. In any case, this non-citizen group makes up about 6% of the US population.

The Trump vs Biden comparison with respect to immigration numbers also needs to take into account the pandemic and Title 42.  "Scott’s comparison is complicated because the COVID-19 pandemic changed how officials report immigration data. Starting in March 2020, Title 42, a public health policy, allowed border officials to quickly expel people arriving at the southern border to mitigate COVID-19’s spread."

I'm not saying that the southern immigration is not a problem, but I believe it to be a bipartisan problem that started decades ago, exacerbated by US foreign intervention, local corruption, and natural disasters. Many of these undocumented immigrants work and pay taxes here, and they deserve a bipartisan solution.

"A few more years of this and you won't recognize our country anymore." I think that ship sailed when Trump got elected in 2016.
  |     |   Comment #9
The best LONG- AND short-term rates were past winter, early spring, LADDER longer term 3, 4 5 years when you see a DEAL! I pulled the trigger winter and very early spring and got 2-5 years Jumbo CDs all at 5%++ APY, they ARE out there, try, try again!
  |     |   Comment #16
Overall, U.S. GDP growth has averaged about 0.95% during Trump’s first term in office. Here’s a look at how that GDP growth stacks up to his predecessor,

In his eight years in office, U.S. GDP growth averaged 1.62% under Obama, about 70% higher than Trump’s growth rate.

In his first four years in office, Trump has had by far the lowest average U.S. GDP growth rate of any of the last seven U.S. presidents
  |     |   Comment #20
and most importantly wants to retreat to 0% interest to crush savers. Right on TV said so to Kirsten Welker. But then again nothing he says ever sticks to him.
I'd vote for Hunter Biden over him.
  |     |   Comment #28
Gee, I don't know. It's tempting to vote for Hunter but his dad, Scranton Joe, can't be bothered to find the time to visit Ohio at the moment. He did at least issue an executive order for East Palestine! 7 months and no visit... no disaster declaration..."not a joke"

What qualities did Hunter bring to Burisma Holdings, an energy company, that they found it necessary to make him a board member- knowing he had no prior experience in the field?
  |     |   Comment #29
Ever hear of sarcasm? All of us here know Hunter is a putz. But I'd vote for that type of putz over Donald, who is a dangerous putz.
But that's just me.
  |     |   Comment #30
As one famous German poet said, “there are more fools in the world that there are people”. So don’t worry: it’s not just you.
  |     |   Comment #40
@mariafalter: Or as Sartre wrote, "Hell is other people."
  |     |   Comment #33
I think if you randomly pull someone off the street to BE President you might do better than all the clowns in WASHINGTON DC.
  |     |   Comment #34
Yup SCRANTON JOW, SCRANTON HILLARY. They pretend they are from less corrupt places but we know….
  |     |   Comment #35
Yes but we hash to look at his ?wife? and it hurts they eyes
  |     |   Comment #27
RE: Mild Early Withdrawal Penalties
I have opened a misc topic in forums to share findings that meet Ken's recommendation.
I think it will be easier to follow discussion/contributions on that topic there, than here.
Looking forward to some good suggestions
  |     |   Comment #32
I keep dreaming of millions of seniors chasing Powell down the streets of Washington with pitchforks….do I need a psychiatrist?
  |     |   Comment #38
Thanks to GOD I have been buying silver since it was 14$ an ounce and I highly recommend it even now at 23$
  |     |   Comment #44
Silver has been a lousy long term investment historically, for at least the last 30 or 40 years with abysmal returns and higher volatility than other widely available investments that also had much higher returns.

If you bought silver in 1990 and still had it your total return was about 77%.

If you bought the S&P 500 instead your total return was about 1,200%.

You would have made more putting your money in CDs or even bank savings accounts than in silver.

And both alternatives had less volatility than silver.

Same is true for gold by the way.

High volatility may be good for gambling short-term, but it's risky. Not saying it's a bad idea to own some silver or gold as some small percentage of a diversified portfolio, but I wouldn't count on it for providing wealth over the long term.
  |     |   Comment #47
Correction, silver is up about 286% since 1990. Better return than you would have gotten on bank deposits but still anemic compared to stocks real estate and other returns.

I think one of the big selling points they use to push silver and gold is dire predictions about will happen in the future. But they never want to talk about the reality of what happened in the past.

I always advocate diversifying. It's the best hedge against your predictions being wrong, because sometimes they will be.

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future."

--Yogi Berra (although the author of the quote is disputed)
  |     |   Comment #39
Beware of three letter agencies too as they are grabbing power like crazy even if it is unconstitutional
  |     |   Comment #43
Ok so who is starving senior, who appears to be a new account?. KInd of a strange string of posts!
  |     |   Comment #45
Seems like there may be an IT glitch, as the Politico blog comments are getting posted here. I am going to head over to Politico to see if the Fed and interest rate comments in response to Ken's excellent Fed meeting summary made if over there.
  |     |   Comment #51
Like I said a while ago, if the 10 year gets thru 4.33%, 4.67% would be the next target. Also I remember saying 4200-4220 on spx fills the gap...then we might get a rally.... pretty close now.

If the ten year gets thru 4.67% there is another target way up at 5.25%
FOMC Meeting: Fed Hikes Rates to 22-Year High - Strategies for Savers

As expected, the Fed increased its benchmark rate by 25 bps today, raising the target federal funds rate (TFFR) to 5.25%-5.50%. This now exceeds the peak of the 2004-2006 rate hiking cycle when the TFFR reached 5.25% (peak lasted from June 29, 2006 until September 18, 2007). You have to go back to early 2001 for a time when the TFFR was higher.

Below is the excerpt from today’s statement with the rate decision.

Today’s rate hike kept the Fed on track for an “every other meeting” rate hike strategy which was...

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Fed Holds Rates Steady But Signals Two Future Rate Hikes - Strategies for Savers

The Fed decided to hold rates steady at the end of its June 13-14 meeting. This is the first Fed meeting without a rate hike since January 2022. This was inline with market expectations. Below is the excerpt from today’s statement with the rate decision.

The surprising news from this meeting came from the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) which includes the dot plot providing forecasts of the federal funds rate. The dot plot was more hawkish than anticipated. The forecasted terminal target federal funds rate has moved up by 50...

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FOMC Meeting: Fed Funds Rate Now Over 5% - Strategies for Savers

The Fed showed commitment to bring down inflation by following through with the expected 25-bp rate hike. The target federal funds rate increased to 5.00%-5.25%. This is very close to the peak rate from the 2004-2006 rate hiking cycle when the target federal funds rate reached 5.25% on June 29, 2006.

The failure of First Republic Bank on Monday was too late for it to impact today’s Fed decision. It may impact future meetings, especially if other large banks fail in coming months. The Fed acknowledged these banking developments and their...

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Fed Meeting: Another 25-bp Rate Hike - Strategies for Savers

The Fed followed through with the expected 25-bp rate hike. When the banking crisis began after the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, the odds of a 25-bp rate hike today went down fast. The Fed was under pressure to pause today for the sake of financial stability. The fact that it decided to follow through on a rate hike shows some commitment in bringing down inflation. In addition to continuing the rate hikes, the Fed is also continuing the reduction of its balance sheet with no changes in its pace.

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Fed Meeting: Downshift to 25-bp Rate Hike - Strategies for Savers

At the conclusion of the FOMC meeting this afternoon, the Fed announced a 25-bp rate hike. This follows a 50-bp rate hike in December and a 75-bp rate hike in November. It’s interesting to note that the Fed has ramped down its rate hikes like it ramped up rate hikes early last year. That suggests this might be the last Fed rate hike, but it’s too early to make that call.

This downshift to a 25-bp rate hike was highly anticipated after the inflation reports over the last two months that...

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