Fed Holds Rates Steady For Fourth Straight Meeting - Strategies for Saver

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As expected, the Fed decided to hold its policy rate steady at its January 30-31 meeting. This is the fourth straight meeting with no rate changes. Below is the excerpt from today’s statement with the rate decision.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent.

A significant addition to the FOMC statement was a sentence that suggests that the Fed is in no rush to cut rates:

The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.

This should lower the odds of a rate cut at the Fed’s March 19-20 meeting.

Even though CPI and PCE data has shown cooling inflation, the strength of the economy has surprised the Fed. This was suggested in the first sentence of the FOMC statement:

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace.

In the December FOMC statement, the opening sentence highlighted a slowing of the growth of economic activity. The strength of the economy is likely causing the Fed to be more careful about being too optimistic of the cooling inflation trend.

Yet again, all voting FOMC members voted in favor of today’s policy action. There was no voting member who dissented. The last time a member dissented was July 2022 when Kansas City Fed President, Esther L. George, dissented on the grounds that a 75-bp rate hike was too large.

The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) was not updated for this meeting. Thus, there’s no update to the Fed’s dot plot. The dot plot of the December SEP had a median forecast for the target federal funds rate (TFFR) to be 75 bps lower by the end of 2024 (4.50%-4.75%), another 100 bps lower by the end of 2025 (3.50%-3.75%), and another 75 bps lower by the end of 2026 (2.75%-3.00%).

Wednesday CD Summary

Due to today’s Fed meeting and February starting tomorrow, I decided to postpone the CD Summary to Thursday. That will give me more time for the CD Summary, and it will allow me to include many of the new CD rates that several credit unions will likely publish for the new month.

More To Come

I plan to update this post later today with commentary on the Fed Chair press conference. In addition, I’ll discuss my take on deposit account strategy in this environment. I just wanted to publish this initial post so that comments can begin.

Comments

Comments that include politics unrelated to economics may be removed. Also, comments with any rudeness towards others will be removed.

Update: The following content was added at 5:45pm ET on Wednesday, January 31, 2023.

Post-Meeting Press Conference

In Fed Chair Powell’s opening remarks, there was no more mention of the possibility of further rate hikes. The sentence, “We are prepared to tighten policy further if appropriate,” was removed. However, the opening remarks didn’t open the door to rate cuts. There was an emphasis on playing it safe by maintaining the policy rate at its current level:

The economic outlook is uncertain, and we remain highly attentive to inflation risks. We are prepared to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for longer, if appropriate.

In the Q&A portion of the press conference, Fed Chair Powell was asked about the timing of the first rate cut, and he suggested that it’s unlikely to be at the March 19-20 meeting. Here are excerpts of his answer on the question of a March rate cut:

Based on the meeting today, I would tell you that I don’t think it’s likely that the committee will reach a level of confidence by the time of the March meeting to identify March as the time to do that. [...] It’s probably not the most likely case, or what we call the base case.

This reinforced the addition in the FOMC statement that suggested that there’s a high bar for the first rate cut.

Of course, economic data in the next six weeks could change the minds of the Fed for a March rate cut. Fed Chair Powell described the economic conditions that would slow down or speed up the Fed’s move toward rate cuts:

There are risks that would cause us to go slower, for example, stronger inflation, more persistent inflation. There are risks that would cause us to go faster and sooner, and that would be a weakening in the labor market, or for that matter, very, very persuasive lower inflation.

My Take

”Higher for longer” made a comeback today. My guess now is that the Fed will hold steady through March. It seems likely that today’s target federal funds rate (TFFR) of 5.25%-5.50% will last until at least the Fed’s April/May meeting (April 30/May 1).

I’m still a little worried that high rates could end quickly if there’s another financial crisis or if a recession hits. The highly inverted yield curve is a sign that a recession will take place. The lag between the inverted yield curve and the start of the recession may be long, and that may be making it easy to dismiss the odds of a recession.

After experiencing two financial crises that have led to the Fed slashing rates to near zero, you learn not to take high rates for granted. High rates can disappear quickly.

Next Four FOMC Meetings

The following table includes the dates of the next four FOMC meetings, whether they’ll include the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the odds that the target federal funds rate will be lower than today’s target (5.25%-5.50%). These odds are based on the Fed Funds futures market via the CME FedWatch Tool as of 4:40pm ET on 1/31/2024.

    FOMC Mtg Date

    Mar 19-20, 2024

    Apr/May 30-1, 2024

    Jun 11-12, 2024

    Jul 30-31, 2024

    SEP

    yes

    no

    yes

    no

    Odds of a lower rate

    35.5%

    94.7%

    100.0%

    100.0%

Note that the odds are 100% of one or more rate cuts by the June meeting. In December, the odds of a March rate cut were 84.0%. It’s a good reminder to take these odds with a grain of salt.

Treasury Yield Changes

Before the Fed meeting, Treasury yields fell after New York Community Bank (the bank that acquired the failed Signature Bank last year) posted a quarterly loss and slashed its dividends. That triggered the market to worry about the banking sector and the possibility that it could contribute to sooner and larger Fed rate cuts. With the Fed pushing back on the March Fed rate cut, the yields recovered some, but the yields on durations from one year and longer declined today between 6 and 9 bps.

Since the last Fed meeting, yields are down substantially on durations from six months and longer. Since December 13th, the 6-month and 1-year T-bill yields have fallen 15 bps and 21 bps, respectively. The yield declines were less for the longer durations. The 2-year, 5-year and 10-year yields have fallen 19 bps, 9 bps, and 5 bps, respectively. The 30-year yield actually increased since the last Fed meeting; its yield has risen 3 bps.

The following yields are from the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates from the Treasury website.

  • Dec 13 (last mtg) → Jan 30 → Jan 31
  • 1-mo: 5.52% → 5.53% → 5.53%
  • 3-mo: 5.44% → 5.42% → 5.42%
  • 6-mo: 5.33% → 5.19% → 5.18%
  • 1-yr: 4.94% → 4.80% → 4.73%
  • 2-yr: 4.46% → 4.36% → 4.27%
  • 5-yr: 4.00% → 4.00% → 3.91%
  • 10y: 4.04% → 4.06% → 3.99%
  • 30y: 4.19% → 4.28% → 4.22%

Future Deposit Rates

In the last two months, it seems like banks fully embraced the market’s view that Fed rate cuts were fast approaching. This was giving them reason to cut their CD rates to help their net interest margins (the difference between what banks receive from loans minus what they pay in deposits.) The best example of this is what Ally’s CFO described at Ally’s Q4 earnings call on January 19th:

we put in another set of rate reductions on the CD side this morning, our second so far in 2024. And so, we're definitely seeing some benefits already from the interest rate environment.

Perhaps today’s Fed meeting will slow or end this CD rate cut mentality by bank management. That may result in a slowdown of CD rate cuts in February.

Unlike CDs, we haven’t seen any significant savings and money market account rate cuts in the last few months. I expect that to last until the March meeting. If at the March meeting, the Fed opens the door to a May rate cut, we may then start to see early rate cuts on savings and money market accounts. Based on the 2019 history of the average online savings account yields, we are unlikely to see widespread savings account rate cuts until the Fed’s first rate cut actually takes place.

Strategies for Savers to Maximize Cash Yield

Does it make sense to delay buying CDs now that a March Fed rate cut appears unlikely? CD rate cuts may slow down a bit from what we saw in January, but I still don’t see any significant CD rate hikes at banks or credit unions. So I wouldn’t bet on higher CD rates anytime soon. That’s especially the case for long-term CDs. I still think the odds are high that 5% CDs and savings accounts will disappear later this year.

Of course, no one knows for sure how interest rates will evolve. Thus, it makes sense to hedge your bets.

CDs with Mild Early Withdrawal Penalties

A long-term CD is the best defense against falling rates. A mild early withdrawal penalty (EWP) helps protect against being stuck in a CD if rates go up considerably. For long-term CDs, a mild EWP would be six months or less of interest. If rates do go higher, a mild EWP will make it less costly to close the CD and move the funds into an account with a higher rate.

One risk of depending on an early withdrawal is if the bank or credit union refuses to allow you to do an early closure. Many institutions do have disclosures that give them the right to refuse an early withdrawal request, regardless of the penalty. For example, BMO Alto’s CD disclosure has the following clause: “We reserve the right to permit withdrawals of principal only upon maturity.” Look for institutions that explicitly give the CD holder the right to make an early withdrawal. Barclays is one example. Its CD disclosure has the following clause: “You may, subject to an early withdrawal penalty, make withdrawals of principal from your CD Account before maturity.”

Add-On CDs for Low-Rate Insurance

Another useful strategy is to acquire as many long-term add-on CDs as you can. Open these with just the minimum deposit. If rates rise well above your add-on CD rate, you can just let the add-on CD continue without additional deposits. With a small minimum deposit, this won’t cost you much. On the other hand, if rates do fall before the add-on CD matures, the value of the add-on CD grows as rates fall. In this case, the additional deposits into the add-on CD could earn you a lot more than opening a new CD. Long-term add-on CDs can be a great low-rate insurance policy, offering some protection against falling rates.

Add-On CDs can be especially helpful if you’re waiting for a CD to mature. Open the add-on CD now, and when the CD matures, you can close the CD and use those funds to make an add-on deposit.

Unfortunately, there aren’t many add-on CDs. Also, most are short-term CDs which provide limited benefit as low-rate insurance. Those that are long-term often have rates lower than standard CDs with the same term. Lastly, some add-on CDs have limitations on the add-on deposits. They may only allow one or two add-on deposits, and there may be limitations on the size of the add-on deposit.

You can find a list of add-on CDs in the Add-On CD Section of the biweekly CD Summary.

No-Penalty CDs

The rate lock of a CD is especially important when rates are falling. No-penalty CDs provide a rate lock just like standard CDs, but funds in a no-penalty CD are much easier to access than a standard CD. The obvious benefit is the lack of an early withdrawal penalty. You can close the CD and you’ll receive all of the principal and all of the accrued interest up to the day of the closure.

No-penalty CDs do have some potential gotchas.

First, make sure all accrued interest will be included in the closure. One online bank that used to offer no-penalty CDs only included credited interest when an early closure was requested, and interest was only credited once per quarter. So if you requested a closure right before the end of the quarter, you could lose almost three months of interest.

Second, make sure that the process of requesting an early closure and receiving the funds is easy and quick. The best banks allow the closure request to be done via their online banking platform, and the closure and funds transfers can be done immediately for an internal transfer. This can be important if you might be using the no-penalty CD to fund a hot CD deal that could end quickly or if you have an emergency expense.

Third, make sure you understand the number of days after you open and fund the no-penalty CD before an early withdrawal is allowed. Regulations that govern CDs require banks to disallow early closures before seven days from CD opening. That is the typical early withdrawal limitation. However, some banks have longer wait times. For example, most of the no-penalty CDs available on the Raisin platform have a 30-day wait time before an early withdrawal can be requested.

Fourth, an early withdrawal typically will close the no-penalty CD. Partial early withdrawals are usually not allowed. So if you need to access just part of the principal, you’ll have to close the CD. If rates have fallen, you’ll lose the high rate that you had been earning.

It’s not a gotcha, but an unfortunate fact of no-penalty CDs is that they tend to be short-term CDs. For the standard no-penalty CD that allows a full penalty-free early closure at any time soon after account opening, there’s no downside of a longer term. In fact, the value of a no-penalty CD increases with a longer term. That’s especially the case when rates are falling.

Also not a gotcha but an unfortunate fact of no-penalty CDs is that they tend to have lower rates than standard CDs for the same term. In fact, they sometimes have rates that are lower than an online savings account from that bank. That will likely become more common as rates start to fall. Ally’s No Penalty CD rate (4.25% APY) has just recently fallen below its savings account rate (4.35% APY). Banks understand the benefit of a rate lock to the customer and will take that into account in the rates they set.

You can find a list of no-penalty CDs in the No-Penalty CD Section of the biweekly liquid account rate summary.

One alternative to no-penalty CDs is a savings account or money market account with a rate guarantee. These are typically better than no-penalty CDs since they don’t have the no-penalty gotchas that I described above. Unfortunately, these rate guarantees are rare, and the guarantee period is typically short. Currently, the best rate guarantee is being offered by Ivy Bank. It’s guaranteeing 5.30% APY until 6/30/2024 on its High-Yield Savings Account for balances up to $1 million. Note, these promotions often don’t last long when rates are falling.

CD Ladders

One of the benefits of a CD ladder is that you don’t have to worry about interest rate changes. With a CD ladder, you just regularly reinvest maturing CDs into new CDs with the longest term of the CD ladder. If rates are rising, each new CD will benefit from the higher rates. If rates are falling, at least part of your funds will be in long-term CDs that have the higher rates before rates fell.


Comments
RichReg
  |     |   Comment #1
Please let rates not be cut until May so that I might cash in on what few 5.50-5.60% deals remain;
& properly utilize cash invested in early 2022 & the Covid Era (currently earning pesos).
John19
  |     |   Comment #2
Hopefully stocks will drop a little and I can scoop up some more with my remaining money. Buying VGT for $500 is disgusting lol.
sams1985
  |     |   Comment #15
I want to DCA into stocks more but this has to be near the top.
John19
  |     |   Comment #22
I probably won't even touch my ETFs until 2040. I wonder if the real estate market will ever correct again. There will certainly be another recession some time in the future. I miss 2009-2010 prices lol.
jimdog
  |     |   Comment #30
Hold on John, you will get your stock drop, likely 15% is coming.
RZ
  |     |   Comment #47
On the contrary it could be a “Goldilocks” election year bull market as two opposing forces are providing the same stimulus. Biden and his Treasury will do all they can to create the aura of a booming economy even at the expense of further destroying the USD. Despite the prospects of a lower Fed Rate the Market anticipates a Trump victory which would result in a welcome roll back of profit stifling regulations and an extension of the previous Trump tax cuts. Regardless as to which party prevails, the Market will likely continue to ride higher.
gregk
  |     |   Comment #3
We’ll see what the Fed decides in March, but Fed Funds Future’s odds (the reigning arbiter on DA) is looking to have been spectacularly wrong in overwhelmingly predicting a March cut after the previous Fed meeting, and likely will be again in their revised prediction of a now better than 50% chance of a Fed cut in May.

Why are they even mentioned here, let alone given precedence over all other judgments about the direction of Fed policy by much saner voices?

Thanks be to Ken, however, for never having given credence to the typically deranged prognostications of a Jeremy Siegel. What a nutter that guy is.
kcfield
  |     |   Comment #11
Hi Greg: When I look at my Accuweather forecast for the next month, I understand that the weather predicted for four weeks from now may change greatly by that time. One former church member who is a well respected meteorologist said that weather forecasts are only good for about three days out.
The Fed Funds Future Index is no different. When it makes a prediction about what will happen at the next Fed meeting or later in the year, that is an accurate snapshot at that point in time (in other words those are the current odds). Did you notice that as of a day or two before the meeting the FFFI did indicate that there was a greater than 50% chance of the rates staying the same (as they did)? If you can see the index as a picture at a particular point and time rather than a bold prediction about future rates irrespective of changing political and economic tides, then the changes over time will perhaps stop being so irritating to you. Consider my Lions: they were about a gazillion to one to win the Super Bowl at the beginning of the year (as they have been awful for decades) but then they had an unexpectedly good year and their odds were about 9 to 1 before they lost in the recent conference championship. Does that mean the opening odds at the beginning of the year were wrong? I don't think so.
gregk
  |     |   Comment #13
Why care about odds that are virtually always mistaken until the behavior in question is right on the brink of happening and easily discernible by almost anyone?

The value of predictions lies in the record of accuracy the source of those predictions demonstrates (over a certain span of time and spectrum of circumstances) somewhat distant from the actual occurrence of the event.

Fed Funds Futures odds have demonstrated no such competence. They may be of interest to some as bellweather for the psychology of markets, but anyone grounding decisions in regards to the allocation of funds on them is likely to seriously regret it.
kcfield
  |     |   Comment #18
Hi Greg: I understand your point, however it is impossible to make predictions that are unchanging irrespective of time and circumstances. The FFFI cannot predict pandemics, political vicissitudes, fuel costs, or terrorist attacks and wars--all of which impact inflation rates. The very nature of odds: whether the Federal Funds Future Index, sporting events, or the weather, is that they are always a snapshot at a point in time. Weather patterns change, players get injured causing a Super Bowl bound team to miss the playoffs. I personally still find value in knowing the odds of something at a given point in time, even in spite of their limited utility for the reasons you mention. The only question is whether the FFFI offers the proper disclaimers so that folks don't rely excessively on their longer term prognostications. I don't know the answer to that. But odds will never be what you would like them to be.
LongTimeDAFan
  |     |   Comment #25
Spot on., KC. The weatherman isn't always accurate, and yet we still check the forecast because it is better than not checking it. Just take it with salt.
gregk
  |     |   Comment #28
In fact, I’m not truly against Fed Funds Futures odds as having a certain small measure of curiosity value.

But Ken’s fallen into the mannerism of making those odds the highlight of virtually every weekly summary he presents, much to the skewing of its value for us here trying to intelligently discern where Fed policy and deposit rates might be heading.

Has it ever shown itself sufficiently stable and credible to be the central orienting point around which our expectations and judgements along these lines should be constellated?

I’d say to Ken to note these odds if he must, but to find other masters
with more seasoned and reflective habits for the purpose of providing weekly insight and perspective on the things we care about knowing.
sams1985
  |     |   Comment #33
Right,  would you plan an outdoor party month out relying solely on the accuweather forecast ?
kcfield
  |     |   Comment #44
Greg: I have been meaning to ask: Is there another index or evaluation tool that you find to be more accurate and helpful than the FFFI? If so, please let us know, as I believe it would be a helpful resource to readers. Speaking for myself, while I find the FFFI helpful, I am not beholden to it, and am open to other sources. Thanks.
gregk
  |     |   Comment #51
No, kc. I haphazardly read the pundits in unsystematic fashion, and don’t find their judgements much better than my own, which aren’t very good either.

But as a predictive gauge FFFO is worst of all worlds as reflective of not much more than wishes, though in that regard might hold some value as measuring the psychology of markets.
deplorable_1
  |     |   Comment #19
Most people follow the crowd and move in a herd like mentality towards one thing or another based on the majority of public opinion. The FED futures odds are no different. I was just going to say that the fact there are 0% odds of rates being at 5.5% in May proves this point but the odds just changed right as I was posting. The odds are now at 5% for rates remaining flat in May.
bboy
  |     |   Comment #45
Greg, what other sources would you recommend that are more accurate historically? Thanks!
P_D
  |     |   Comment #14
Jeremy Siegel is one of the most creative and original thinkers in investing of our time. It was in his class that I first began to absorb some of the most proven lucrative investing principles that I still profitably enjoy to this day many decades later.
gregk
  |     |   Comment #26
Siegel in his maturity may well have been different than Siegel in his dotage. When I read his internet judgements and predictions presently, they seem to express just about the same level of mania as I used to feel Peter Schiff exuded back when he was the popular pundit Jeremy Siegel has become. Neither was ever correct about anything.
P_D
  |     |   Comment #27
I think it was back around that time that he became the highest paid professor in the country and the first ever to be paid over a million dollar salary. Absolutely brilliant guy.

And the guy never even took a finance course! He was completely self-taught. I always thought that might be why he was such an innovative thinker in the field.
111
  |     |   Comment #32
It's somewhat humorous that this subset of this thread has become about Siegal's "personality", as it were. Siegal is basically a "stocks for the (mid or) long-term" guy, and the real argument is whether for the mid- to long-term, stocks beat nearly every other type of investment. Answer is - they do, although admittedly with more volatility, which can be incredibly scary for short-term snowflakes with no sense of history. But for them, much of life is like that.

Don't like Siegal? Well then read something from Malkiel, Ellis, Fama, or even back to Harry Markowitz, and you'll get a somewhat similar flavor. The math doesn't lie.
LovinSomeCDs
  |     |   Comment #4
We are now talking about cuts, and rates really havent budged for the better part of a year or so. Man, I am so glad I stuck to the "ladder and it wont matter" strategy, and didnt wait for 7% or bust (even though I did manage to snap up a few 6.5%'ers).

Now, as i have said before, I may luck out and those mature at another good time. The maturity date is just as important as the inception date.

Simple game plan:  Open CD> CD matures> Roll it over to the best available rate THAT DAY>  Rinse, Repeat.
P_D
  |     |   Comment #5
I think a lot of strategy regarding CDs has to do with investment perspective.

When I was cutting my teeth in investing rates were around 10%, although they cycled up and down for the next two decades, there were plenty of times when they were at or near that rate or higher even approaching 20% for a time.

Given that, I rarely take a CD for more than 3 years because from my perspective the rates are still poor, and the real rate of return after inflation, which is what counts, is not at all inspiring.

No doubt if your perspective is shorter than that and much of your experience coincided with ZIRP it seems like you hit the jackpot at 5% and you tend to think this is the opportunity of a lifetime. And it may be. Or not.

But I think it's critical to keep in mind that you're taking a gamble whether you go short or long. And that's why I advocate diversifying your terms. Although in general I keep 3 years as my limit for CDs. That's a long time for my investment profile. I only have a very small percentage of my bank allocation longer than that.
kcfield
  |     |   Comment #8
PD: Well said. Incidentally, is there any update on the TBLI (Taco Bell Lunchbox Index)? From your previous comments that new index seems highly predictive of future inflationary trends.
P_D
  |     |   Comment #10
Well yes kc, that's a good question.

I would put it this way...

CD investing is like the burrito and taco surprise box. "You never know what you're going to get."
P_D
  |     |   Comment #17
The lower the grade, the more satisfying the flavor grenade.
CDmanFL
  |     |   Comment #6
I’m happy with Powell’s message today. And I’m hoping the inflation and economic data are convincing enough that they don’t cut in May either. Or all of 2024 for that matter. Wishful thinking I guess but I’m hoping. If they don’t cut in May, they may not cut for the rest of 2024 because it will be too close to the election. Higher for longer baby!
Mak
  |     |   Comment #7
I don't want to put everything in at once and wonder if I'm going to get.a good rate when it matures.
I just ladder them, have been doing it that way for a long time and seems to work out best.

My ladder goes out 5 years by the time you know it they're 4 years and then 3 years...3 year ladder would be too much work for me unless rates were low and I thought they were going to go up, then I would shorten my ladder like I did this time around... my ladder was a little over 2 years when rates started going up.
LovinSomeCDs
  |     |   Comment #9
Covid, Inflation, and Biden has been the jolt our American economy needed!

Well done to the trifecta that this country was starving for.  Not voting for him, but almost hope he wins again.
senda
  |     |   Comment #12
Those places that jumped the gun and lowered rates might need to reconsider. GTE just spammed me trying to push their terrible 5.12% 12 month CD. Maybe they'd have more deposits if they hadn't lowered their rates prematurely. Next time, try not lowering your rates before it's necessary.
sams1985
  |     |   Comment #21
Last call for that Advancial jumbo rate ???
gregk
  |     |   Comment #24
I put everything I could in that one while still keeping the funds insured, - and US Senate’s
5 year Jumbo (4.97% APY) has been my alternative fallback beyond.

I was rather surprised both Credit Unions kept their YE 2023 intact through January and am curious what February will bring in that regard. I’ve no available deposit funds available until mid-March, in any case, and who knows where we might be at (CD rate wise) by then?   Certainly not FFF odds, hehe.
gregk
  |     |   Comment #34
Advancial’s 5.40% Jumbo 5 year rate still listed on their website this morning, - however US Senate shows a big drop on its own 5 year Jumbo down to 4.18% APY (from 4.97%).
njs
  |     |   Comment #36
Damm. I was counting on that one.
njs
  |     |   Comment #39
This is going to be 2019 all over again as far as longer term cds go.
LovinSomeCDs
  |     |   Comment #23
Wow, the House just passed another 80 Billion! This is great news! Print more money, lets do this!
deplorable_1
  |     |   Comment #29
Yep with bi-partisan support too....when both parties agree we are really in trouble.
milty
  |     |   Comment #35
Haven't read the latest details, but last I knew this child tax credit can go to families making up to $400,000. If these households are considered the "poorer families" then I'm in worse shape than I thought. Also don't know what goodies are in the bill for businesses, but would have thought they've gotten all they deserve with that 20% pass-through deduction from the 2017 TCJA.
LovinSomeCDs
  |     |   Comment #38
I am waiting to file to see where that child tax credit falls. That benefits me all day long!
jimdog
  |     |   Comment #31
I see rates higher now toward the end of the year due to inflation reaccelerating. Rates will dip about .50 during the summer then take off again due to inflation!
PTF
  |     |   Comment #37
Ken... As usual, terrific synopsis of Powell and Fed speak. THANK YOU

I was absent at 2 o'clock, was there any mention of the balance sheet and QT/QE.?

For the professed FED transparency policy, seems that we get very little disclosure in regard to both the 8 or so unfinanced trillion on the Fed book and on pending future required government "funding/financing".
Mak
  |     |   Comment #40
Don't want to see the 10 year below 3.75%, that would not be good.

So far a rally back to yesterday's high 4907 needs to break above that to mean anything, aapl and amzn to report after the close and the jobs number tomorrow.
CDmanFL
  |     |   Comment #42
Let’s hope Bianco was right when he said a few weeks ago that the 10 year would rise to 5.5%. That would bode well for long-term CD rates.
Mak
  |     |   Comment #46
You'll need the economy to stay strong imo for that to happen.
RZ
  |     |   Comment #41
Servicing of the ever expanding debt is now 16% of GNP. This is unsustainable unless there are severe cuts to entitlements and defense, the two untouchables of the inept politicians from both parties whose only concern is re-election. Powell despite his statements will turn sometime in the Spring and begin rate lowering, and QE while printing more money to pay for it. Raging inflation will of course be the result but that will be necessary to pay off the debt even if it ****s the middle class. The ultra rich who hold stocks and hard assets will still do fine however.
Mak
  |     |   Comment #43
That jobs number should put a stain in the Trumper's underwear....;)
RZ
  |     |   Comment #48
Smoke and mirrors along with a strong sense of false security did not prevent the Titanic from sinking
Mak
  |     |   Comment #49
I know, if you keep saying it long enough sooner or later you'll be right, better get the timing right though.
RZ
  |     |   Comment #50
I still bullish in an election year as a desperate Biden will goose the market with the help of the politicized Treasury Dept while at the same time the institutional investors expect Trump to get back to the WH along with deregulation and tax cuts. It's a win-win for the rest of the year however after that.....
Fed Holds Rates Steady For Third Straight Meeting - Strategies for Savers

As expected, the Fed decided to hold rates steady at its December 12-13 meeting. This is the third straight meeting that held rates steady. Although it’s not official, I think it’s safe to say that we are in a pause phase of this rate cycle. Today’s FOMC statement is very similar to the November statement. Below is the excerpt from today’s statement with the rate decision.

One slight change in today’s FOMC statement was the addition of the word “any” in the following phrase (emphasis is mine):

Fed Chair Powell was asked...

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Fed Holds Rates Steady For Second Straight Meeting - Strategies for Savers

The Fed decided to hold rates steady at the end of its October 31st/November 1st meeting. This is the first time in this rate hiking cycle with two back-to-back meetings with no rate hikes. The last Fed rate hike was on July 26th. It effectively ends what was thought to be an “every other meeting” rate hike plan that the Fed appeared to put in place in June. Below is the excerpt from today’s statement with the rate decision.

The new FOMC statement had only a couple of small changes from...

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Fed Holds Rates Steady But Signals One More Rate Hike - Strategies for Savers

The Fed decided to hold rates steady at the end of its September 19-20 meeting. This was a widely expected decision. Before today, the odds that the Fed was going to hold rates steady had risen to the high 90s. This decision was also inline with the “every other meeting” rate hike strategy that the Fed appeared to put in place in June. Below is the excerpt from today’s statement with the rate decision.

Some insights into the Fed’s future rate decisions can be seen in the Summary of Economic Projections...

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FOMC Meeting: Fed Hikes Rates to 22-Year High - Strategies for Savers

As expected, the Fed increased its benchmark rate by 25 bps today, raising the target federal funds rate (TFFR) to 5.25%-5.50%. This now exceeds the peak of the 2004-2006 rate hiking cycle when the TFFR reached 5.25% (peak lasted from June 29, 2006 until September 18, 2007). You have to go back to early 2001 for a time when the TFFR was higher.

Below is the excerpt from today’s statement with the rate decision.

Today’s rate hike kept the Fed on track for an “every other meeting” rate hike strategy which was...

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Fed Holds Rates Steady But Signals Two Future Rate Hikes - Strategies for Savers

The Fed decided to hold rates steady at the end of its June 13-14 meeting. This is the first Fed meeting without a rate hike since January 2022. This was inline with market expectations. Below is the excerpt from today’s statement with the rate decision.

The surprising news from this meeting came from the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) which includes the dot plot providing forecasts of the federal funds rate. The dot plot was more hawkish than anticipated. The forecasted terminal target federal funds rate has moved up by 50...

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