Fed Holds Rates Steady - CD Rate Predictions & Strategies for 2019

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As expected, no policy changes were announced today at the end of the two-day FOMC meeting. The Fed decided to hold off on a rate hike. The FOMC statement had nothing to suggest any change to their gradual rate hike policy which means that a December rate hike is very likely.

The economic overview in today’s FOMC statement was very similar to the September statement. There were only two changes. The description of the unemployment rate went from “stayed low” to “declined”. The other change was the “growth of business fixed investment” which went from “grown strongly” to “moderated from its rapid pace earlier in the year”. In summary, the FOMC statement had nothing to suggest any future changes to its current policy of gradual rate hikes.

Another thing to note about today’s FOMC statement was that there was no mention of the volatility in the financial markets that has occurred since the last FOMC meeting. This suggests the volatility is not enough to warrant concern in their decision making.

All voting members voted for today’s policy decision. There were no dissents.

December Fed Rate Hike Odds at 77.8%

The odds of a December Fed rate hike isn’t quite a sure thing according to the Fed fund futures as shown by the CME Group FedWatch Tool. The odds of a rate hike in December is now 77.8%. This combines a 71.4% chance of a 25-bps rate hike and a 6.4% chance of a 50-bps rate hike. On Tuesday, the odds were 79.3%. After the August Fed meeting, the odds for a September rate hike were 91.2%.

The odds that the Fed rate will be at least 50 bps higher in March (most likely a 25-bps rate hike in December and March) went up a little from Tuesday, rising from 57.2% to 60.4%.

Future FOMC Meetings

The next three FOMC meetings are scheduled for December 18-19, January 29-30, and March 19-20. The December and March meetings will include the summary of economic projections. All future meetings will have a press conference by the Chair.

Deposit Account Rate Predictions

An important issue for savers is the decision of how much of their savings should go into long-term CDs vs short-term CDs and savings accounts. As long as rates keep rising, long-term CDs don’t look attractive. That’s especially the case when long-term rates aren’t that much higher than short-term rates.

Today’s Top Deposit Rates and Comparison to August

The decision between long vs. short hasn’t been easy due to long-term CD rates that have been increasing. We now have a few 4-year and 5-year CDs at or above 4.00% APY. These CDs are from credit unions. A few credit unions have been offering higher rates on 5-year CDs than the internet banks. Currently, the highest 5-year CD rate that’s nationally available from a bank is 3.50% APY. The highest from the large and well-established internet banks is 3.10% APY.

Short-term CD rates have also been increasing. We now have a nationally-available 1-year CD at 3.00% APY. A few credit unions have also been offering higher rates on 1-year CDs than the internet banks. Currently, the highest 1-year CD rate that’s nationally available from a bank is 2.75% APY. The highest from the large and well-established internet banks is 2.68% APY.

Below are today’s top rates for nationally-available savings account, 1-year CD and 5-year CD. I also include the past top ones from August 1st (the last Fed meeting with no rate hike):

Just like in August, the top 5-year CD rate had the largest increase (rising 55 bps vs. 40 bps for 1-year CDs). On the other hand, the top rates for savings and money market accounts only increased 5 bps. It should be noted that a promotional savings account rate of 2.50% APY was just discontinued at EBSB Direct. But even if the 2.50% APY were used as today’s top rate, the top savings and money market rate has only increased 25 bps from three months ago.

Future Deposit Rate Predictions

So based on the recent rate histories of the top CDs and savings accounts, we may see top CD rates that are around 50 bps higher three months from now. And top savings account rates should be around 25 bps higher three months from now. That would result in a top 5-year CD APY at around 4.50% and a top 1-year CD APY at around 3.50%. The top savings or money market account APY may be around 2.75%.

CD and Savings Account Strategies In This Rising Rate Environment

With CD rates rising this fast, it seems prudent to avoid long-term CDs until we see at least two or three straight Fed meetings with no rate hikes.

CDs with 1-year terms can make more sense, but you probably won’t earn significantly more interest in these than in savings accounts over a full year. You’ll start off earning more in the first half of the term, but during the second half, savings account rates will likely be earning more than the CD. If you average out the interest earned in the savings account, it will likely be similar to the 1-year CD.

An example of comparing a savings account with a 1-year CD over a year in today’s interest rate environment can be seen by using Ally Bank. One year ago, the Ally Online Savings Account had a 1.25% APY. Today, it has a 1.90% APY. A rough average of the yield in the last year is 1.58%. A year ago, the top-tier rate of the Ally 12-month High Yield CD was 1.65%. As you can see, you would have earned just a little bit less in the savings account.

The one obvious downside with most CDs is the early withdrawal penalty. If you come across a hot CD deal and you want to fund it with an existing CD, you’ll be hit with an early withdrawal penalty.

Another downside with a CD is that it makes it more difficult to quickly deploy the funds when hot CD deals arise. If you need the funds for a hot CD, you’ll need to close the existing CD and transfer the funds to a savings or checking account that can be used to fund the new hot CD. Some banks like Ally can quickly close CDs and transfer the funds to an internal checking or savings account where the funds can be immediately available. That’s not always the case with some institutions.

Of course if you want to keep things simple with your safe money, a CD ladder is always a reasonable option. The ladder ensures you take advantage of higher rates as interest rates rise. You may want to favor shorter-term CDs for your ladder. However, beware of short-term CDs with terms under one year. At many internet banks, rates of CDs with terms of under one year continue to be well below savings account rates. These short-term CDs don’t make any sense. If you’re starting a CD ladder, don’t choose short-term CDs with rates under savings account rates.


Comments
jdub
jdub   |     |   Comment #1
I do not think that 5 year CD rates will be at 4.5% in a year. I think the current 4% deals are already factoring in those rate hikes.
Ahimsa42
Ahimsa42   |     |   Comment #3
even if the rates do not go that high in 2019, perhaps 4% CD's will be more common. i wanted to break my current 5YR ALLY CD @ 2.25% pull the trigger on the 4 year GSCU deal but had second thoughts after reading about the low Bank Rate level.
jdub
jdub   |     |   Comment #4
I think the current interest rates are already causing problems in the economy (stock market, housing, cars) and a year from now the FED may have reversed course. I wonder if 4% is the high?
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #6
I strongly disagree there will be 5% interest rates by Dec. 2019. If you recall I also predicted 4% by the end of this year quite a while back and 4 rate hikes at the beginning of the year as well. The banks goal is to get you to take the long term CD bait right before interest rates rise above that level. They want YOU to loan them money at a sub par rate.
tck
tck   |     |   Comment #7
Sorry, I am a little confused by the wording (probably just me). But what you are saying is that you disagree with jdub, and that you believe there will be 5% rates by Dec next year?
jdub
jdub   |     |   Comment #8
Interest rates are not about to go above 4%. 4% is way above the fed funds rate and treasury rates. Even if the FED raises rates 4 more times, that would put the fed funds rate at 3 - 3.25
Att
Att   |     |   Comment #9
Most banks and CUs are not paying 4% or even close. 3 small institutions are paying 4% which is far more than their peers. Reminds me of the old Penfed days. I opened a 5 year 4% with Connexus as part of my ladder. I have a Penfed CD maturing in December and a few early 2019.
fred oaks
fred oaks   |     |   Comment #10
please stop attacking deplorable, just because he has contrary opinions.

nobody else EXCEPT for mr larry accepted rates to RISE this year!
#11 - This comment has been removed for violating our comment policy.
Smitty in the City
Smitty in the City   |     |   Comment #14
I 2nd this, "Are you serious?!?!" Anyone who has paid an inkling of attention to the FED meetings has known all year rates would be raised 3 to 4 times. Anyways, with that said I get Deplorable's reasoning, but I am adding a small amount to this 4% as part of my CD ladder. If the FED raises rates 4 more times next year, we will likely see many more 4-5-6% rates, and then this deal is not amaze-balls. And this is a likely scenario given the tax cuts plus the sustained employment of the last many years. We'll see!
losingtrader
losingtrader   |     |   Comment #58
The Fed did. I've got the BTH 5 year CD which is tied to the 1 year T +105 bps.
It was not a popular product , I was told, because people were worried rates would go down.

I'm not sure whoever designed this offering was doing so with a full deck. They allowed unlimited add -ons.

The current rate is 3.74 with 4.25 years remaining. If short rates go to 3.375 by Dec 2019 as the dot plot indicates, the 1 year will likely be above the short rate...say 3.60-3.80 , which along with the 105 bps yields around 4.70 on what would then be a 3 year CD. As the maturity approaches, there's an opportunity to dump a lot of money into the CD at any time and earn 1 yr T +1.05 even with only 1-2 years or less remaining.
Money talk
Money talk   |     |   Comment #13
Money brings greed, greed brings exuberance, exuberance brings gullibility, ...... until the misery sets in and then nothing will make the savers happy. Even 10% interest rates will not be enough for some persons and they will always ask for more and more and more.......
losingtrader
losingtrader   |     |   Comment #59
I hardly think savers are greedy after 10 years of being ****ed by the fed.
I'd avoid investing too early and only buy CD's you can "put" with a 6 month penalty.
Remember, unlike a brokered CD or a bond, the early withdrawal penalty is a deduction "above the line" on your tax return, so the effect is mitigated by your marginal tax rate.
Being able to "put" a CD at 98 cents on the dollar is something I'd be more than willing to do since , with AGI over 157,500 (single filer)your marginal rate is 32%, and if over $200k your marginal rate is 38.8%.(35 +3.8 net investment income tax).


In my opinion everyone's goal should be to earn taxable interest up to the threshold where the tax rate skips from 24.5 to 32. Above that , AA and AAA tax free bonds make a lot of sense . Above 200k in income (once again single) , buying 20 year AA housing bonds yields a tax free rate of 4.1-4.2, with a taxable equivalent close to 7 depending on your state tax.
As I sidetracked to low income housing bonds , I might as well mention these are extremely likely to last the full 20 years, as the tax code only allows housing authorities to recycle the money from payoffs and principal payments for 10 years.
losingtrader
losingtrader   |     |   Comment #60
I meant "extremely unlikely to last the full 20 years"
Moody
Moody   |     |   Comment #18
deplorable 1, do you know what the banks do with our money when we open account(s) with them?
Well, they buy treasuries and the money paid back to the bank(s) as interest is given to us after a 1/4 to 1/2% cut for the bank(s).
Now, the treasury used our money to pay the obligations, but always they are short and continue to borrow money from the FED. When ever we ask for the money back from the bank(s), they cash in the treasury notes and the treasury being always broke, asks for more money from the FED because our original money was long gone.
The vicious circle continue endlessly or until the treasury can no longer pay the interest on the national debt, present estimate $23 trillions and the present interest payment is about $550 billions per year and climbing.
Every one percent rise in the interest rates cost us (the taxpayer) $130 billions extra per year, what do you think will happen with the dollar and our savings in few years time?
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #22
@Moody: So your solution is what? Have 0% interest rates till the end of time? I'm not the one who ran up the debt BOTH parties did that. So everyone who ever cast a vote is responsible in a way even though we may not agree with what our elected representatives have done. If it was up to me we would have a balanced budget or dare I say a surplus in government. What I do have control over though is taking advantage of higher interest rates to at least make a bit more income.
fred oaks
fred oaks   |     |   Comment #27
Deplorable is RIGHT. As usual.

The ONLY SOLUTION to our DEBT is a constitional amendment!

If the constition REQUIRED a balanced budget the past two years, it would have happened!
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #28
I agreed with you 100% Fred but this will never happen because at that point congress would have to openly admit that we can no longer afford all the government handout programs. And we all know why that would never happen.
fred oaks
fred oaks   |     |   Comment #29
understood and agreed DEPLORABLE!!

But now that TRUMP and his cronies have gotten their tax cuts, they should support an AMENDMENT!
To #29
To #29   |     |   Comment #32
fred oaks #29, what cronies, Trump is a patriot, there are no cronies, he is trying to get read off the what ever they left from the precious elections. The conies are the deep state, crated by the democrats and the globalists.

By the way Trump's did cut the taxes for everybody and we should thank him. If you know what the dems stands for about the debt ceiling and balanced budget, you will not demand amendments, it will not be allowed by the dems.
anon
anon   |     |   Comment #82
Patriot? Maybe, patriot and traitor mean the same thing in the trump era.
fred oaks
fred oaks   |     |   Comment #34
Deplorable is 10)% correct as alwayS

Now that taxes have been CUT we can now cut SPENDING such as Socail Security and Medicare.

Thini about it. Less social security = less people = less Medicare!

The term is "golden circle."
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #39
I was thinking more along the lines of Welfare(insert endless list here), disability fraud, SS fraud, Medicaid fraud, redundant government jobs and departments ect. Folks who paid into SS and medicare deserve to get their benefits but these big government programs always fail and end up costing us all more than any benefits we receive in return. This could have all been done in a different way like private accounts with rules and restrictions for example.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #43
How you can say that with a straight face is beyond me.
Look at what people have voluntarily saved for their retirements.
Pretty much squat.
That was the whole point of Social Security.
To force people to have at least a base retirement amount.
With IRA's there's nothing stopping people from creating their own private account.
I guess you're against having a military.
That's the biggest and most wasteful government program that's ever existed.
FriendlyDebate
FriendlyDebate   |     |   Comment #46
Please don't forget that MOST people make just enough money to live, not enough to buy fancy houses, cars, vacations, clothes, and extra stuff. Most people have lived this way for the last 40-50 years, and they did not have enough left over to save a lot. So, most people don't have a lot saved, but they ALL had to pay into SS and Medicare. These citizens are OWED their Medicare and SS in return. And why is SS and Medicare running slim?...………...Lest you forget, or in the case that you did not know, chain migration has eaten up both! Fraudulent claims have eaten up both! Govt. BORROWING from funds have eaten up both! These citizen-middle class people that paid for ALL of it do indeed deserve both programs!!!!
open door
open door   |     |   Comment #49
Chain Migration started heavily after soldiers started bringing back War Brides from all our conflicts
anon
anon   |     |   Comment #86
Hey FRED, No need to shout. We hear you are a DEPLORABLE!
National debt
National debt   |     |   Comment #30
fred oaks, have ever listen to the democrats constantly saying remove the ceiling on the national debt to infinity.
How on earth are you going to make that deal with the dems?
#31 - This comment has been removed for violating our comment policy.
deplorable 1 squared
deplorable 1 squared   |     |   Comment #41
I guess you are a fan of Bill Clinton.
He was the last president to balance the budget.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #80
I was a fan of the Republican controlled congress that was much more fiscally responsible back in the Clinton era. Remember the "contract with America"
deplorable +1
deplorable +1   |     |   Comment #40
I dreaded the day this would come.
I have to agree with...
No, I can't say it!
Ginzy
Ginzy   |     |   Comment #48
Can you say Newt Gingrich and th Contract with America?
Smitty in the City
Smitty in the City   |     |   Comment #50
Despite obvious political biases and leanings on these boards, there really is no doubt that both sides of the political spectrum are to blame for america's hugely debt problem. To think otherwise shows your hand of mental capacities. You gotta take your blinders off and stop eating from the the feed bag muzzled around your face. There's greener pastures out there.
CuriousDave
CuriousDave   |     |   Comment #101
The banks don't swim in the pool on their own. They have to compete with many other market offerings, including U.S. Treasuries, which right now are quite competitive, especially for people living in high tax bracket states. If the Fed continues raising its rates the banks will have no choice but to do the same.
Randy
Randy   |     |   Comment #2
Thanks for the analysis. I check the blog daily now.
dollarsncents
dollarsncents   |     |   Comment #5
I never expected another rate hike to be announced today so soon after the last one.
#20 - This comment has been removed for violating our comment policy.
The FEDs
The FEDs   |     |   Comment #12
The FEDs are playing with fire, Trump will dissolve them. The higher rates will soon bankrupt the treasury. You do not have to believe it, but all roads started to lead to Rome.
Smitty in the City
Smitty in the City   |     |   Comment #15
It's not the FED's fault. Congress should balance the budget.
Moody
Moody   |     |   Comment #16
Smitty in the City, The congress has nothing to do with the interest rates, the FED is doing the rates up or down. We did not have a balanced budget for the last 30 years. The congress is so polarized, that no negotiation between the parties is possible now. The people will pay the price at the end. The FEDs knows that the treasury can not meet the present needs (obligations) and also the taxpayers are on the hook for $550 billions per year of interest payments on the current national debt and yet they stubbornly continue with rate hikes.
The FED is not our friend, they have different agenda.
pure_code
pure_code   |     |   Comment #26
@Moody, yes, you are right, the FED does have a different agenda, their agenda is control inflation while keeping an eye on unemployment. The congress needs to balance the budget.
According to you, the Fed should keep rates low since congress is dysfunctional, risk skyrocketing inflation which is in their mandate, this way when SHTF then we can all blame the Fed, are you related to Chuck Norris?
factpath
factpath   |     |   Comment #35
@Moody: For the record, the last balanced federal budget was just seventeen years ago, not thirty.
Beginning with the 1998 budget year, during Bill Clinton’s second term, the federal government actually ran a yearly budget surplus through FY 2001.
This surplus was eliminated by tax cuts initiated by his successor, George W. Bush.
#36 - This comment has been removed for violating our comment policy.
FactCheck
FactCheck   |     |   Comment #42
#35, factpath, that was the year the Clinton raided the SS fund and moved the money from the vault to the general obligation fund. Slimy and sleazy moves made it look like the budget is in balance. At that time SS was running surpluses and was added to the budget, but the budget without the SS money was in red.
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milty
milty   |     |   Comment #68
Sorry, maybe because I grew up in a different era--if not for MSM we would never have had the Watergate hearings. I am not yet ready to discount every MSM news story just to satisfy my own personal agenda. I will agree on your one point though, the news has gotten increasingly hostile and depressing, where the need to win is more important than the truth or justice.
A-men
A-men   |     |   Comment #17
A-men Smitty...
DCGuy
DCGuy   |     |   Comment #55
"The budget surpluses over the next five years could easily exceed $500 billion."

An article from 1998.
https://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/no-bill-clinton-didnt-balance-budget

What came about soon after are the dot-com bust, 9/11, and subprime crisis. Bye Bye balanced budget.
Pay for play
Pay for play   |     |   Comment #62
DCGuy #55, that was the year the Clintons sold our technology to China to the highest bidder in the scheme called pay for play. That is how our uranium went to Russia, the nation for sale by the Clintons scams.
China now is a competitor on any field and that how we started to import cheap junk from China and created $500 billions in deficits per year, just from China alone.
DCGuy
DCGuy   |     |   Comment #72
#62 - Yes, that all came about. The blame goes back to the Nixon visit to Red China in the early 1970s. If the bamboo curtain remained as is up to today, that country would still be pursuing it's 50th version of the Great Leap Forward and dealing with its communist economic issues like the USSR. The country would probably be like Pakistan, poor but with a nuclear bomb.
Nothing
Nothing   |     |   Comment #73
The China connection was designed (at that time) to get Russia “in line.” And it worked...it collapsed!
Nixon time
Nixon time   |     |   Comment #74
DCGuy #72, Nixon did not give any technologies to China, Clintons did, check your facts. Nixon role was to establish friendly communication only. We used to sell them lots of grain at Nixon time and nothing else, they could have not afforded anything else.
DCGuy
DCGuy   |     |   Comment #76
#74 - Nixon was not around beyond a few more years after his trip. When I said the blame goes back to the 1970s, I am not stating that he personally was involved with future events involving China. His visit was the catalyst for later president's actions with China. Would the Clintons have made the first effort to thaw relations with Red China by the US? Hard to say, but given that Clinton had little interaction with China prior to being president, it is highly doubtful.
ClintonFoundation
ClintonFoundation   |     |   Comment #77
#76, obviously you know about the Clinton's foundation and the non-profits attached to it. Over $100 millions came from China for the Bill Clinton political election contribution fund, same amount came from China in the Obama's campaign contribution fund, ask yourself WHY, if you can not see the obvious answer, you live in denial of the facts.
DCGuy
DCGuy   |     |   Comment #100
"obviously you know"
#77 - I did not try to figure out all of campaign contributions going on in the presidential elections in the 1990s. But, that is irrelevant regarding the discussion about the balanced budget topic.
#102 - This comment has been removed for violating our comment policy.
To DCGuy 100
To DCGuy 100   |     |   Comment #103
#100, why deny the truth, are you working for them, do they pay you to twist and lie, no this is not an insult, it is fact and if someone is following around on this blog they can come to same conclusion. Clintons are bad people and there is no denying about it.
DCGuy
DCGuy   |     |   Comment #110
#103 - You seem to think that I am defending the Clintons for some reason. They have a lot of things to explain from the time they were in the White House. What I am trying to say is that you are "putting words in my mouth" based on your perceived impression that I am supporting them. That is very far from the truth. Anyway, I was not the one that brought them up in the first place.
John
John   |     |   Comment #19
Helo man
Are you going to stop giving 5% CDs. Please increase rates.
#25 - This comment has been removed for violating our comment policy.
Scott
Scott   |     |   Comment #38
Looks like ally raised a few rates today, including the no penalty... Time to make adjustments...
DCGuy
DCGuy   |     |   Comment #47
Recent article about the Fed.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/11/05/trump-wants-copy-venezuelas-biggest-economic-mistake/
#52 - This comment has been removed for violating our comment policy.
Find the truth
Find the truth   |     |   Comment #53
#47, Trump will dissolve the FED, that is the only way we can continue to exist as a nation. Only a great patriot, who cares about the people and the nation can do that. Imagine life without the FED, we can print money without owning interest on it, we will not need the IRS or to pay any taxes on the income. You dems have been kept under the rug by the MSM for decades and have no idea of what really is going on around you. Without being told the truth, how would you know, there is way to find the truth, just close those TV stations that constantly brainwash you.
#54 - This comment has been removed for violating our comment policy.
Excellent web site
Excellent web site   |     |   Comment #63
#54, I find this site very informative and educational, I do not know about you, but rejecting the facts does not makes you more intelligent. You should explore more alternatives and in search for the real truth.
If MSM has done a permanent damage to you, it is a different story, but we like your inputs anyway.
Rudy Gullioni
Rudy Gullioni   |     |   Comment #65
Truth Is Not Truth
To#65
To#65   |     |   Comment #71
#65, that statement applies to the persons who are afraid from the truth.
True Fact
True Fact   |     |   Comment #64
DCGuy, this is a true fact, please search for them, it is much better to know the truth than a MSM fantasy.

https://nypost.com/2018/11/09/james-comey-discussed-sensitive-fbi-business-on-his-private-email/
Nathan
Nathan   |     |   Comment #75
I like when people post facts and bypass the MSM for info. We live in Fabian communism since 1900s and the globalists run the world by proxy since that time (I will not say any names, forbidden by DA policy) but can tell you this:
At the moment I'm in EU, but visit DA regularly, some of those posts are right on the money (spot) and you should be proud to have such bright and intelligent posters. I learn a lot about the money flow, the FED, treasury, government and so on, just by reading some fantastic posts. Here in Holland, Italy and other EU nations, we follow and love what Trump is doing, you should be lucky to have such person in power, God bless you all.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #79
@Nathan: I would like your impressions of how Europe has done since adopting the Euro and more specifically how have the taxes higher or lower effected the everyday people in the countries where you live. Also we hear from the MSM daily how president Trump is hated by Europe is this true? If not why? Thanks in advance this should prove interesting.
Sargent David
Sargent David   |     |   Comment #83
deplorable 1 #79, I can answer some of your curiosity. I just came from EU, military assignment for 4 years in Germany. Look at it this way, EU is run by the globalists and unelected officials and they hate Trump, however, the people love Trump because they see him as their own liberator by exposing the deep state operative in USA and here in EU. Italy just elected a nationalist, Netherlands just elected a nationalist, Austria just elected a nationalist and few other countries are run by the nationalists like Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia and many others.
The globalists are in panic mode in EU and they try everything to play down the Trump effect. He is loved in EU on a scale about 50%-60% of the population. Because of Trump effect here in Germany, Angela Merkel is being sent out of politics and the nationalist parties are being re-elected in big numbers and that is a fact.
The euro is pegged to the dollar and can only go up or down 10- 20 cents before it resets back again to around $1,16. The central bank in EU, Mario Draghi said that the euro is here to stay no matter what happens to the interest rates or the value of it globally.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #84
Thank you Sargent David! That actually surprises me a bit because you don't hear anything like that in our media although I did see the news about Merkel. Macron gave a mean spirited speech that was obviously aimed directly at Trump. I found this to be particularly disturbing and hostile speech to be giving on Armistice day! http://fortune.com/2018/11/11/macron-nationalist-trump-armistice-day-2018/
#88 - This comment has been removed for violating our comment policy.
To #88
To #88   |     |   Comment #90
#88, The Trump movement (effect) is felt globally, so it is a global event.
Titanic time
Titanic time   |     |   Comment #78
#64, we all seat on the Titanic deck, the rich persons are on the upper decks and the crowds are at the engine rooms.
Can we save ourselves from sinking and how?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-on-a-course-to-spend-more-on-debt-than-defense-1541937600
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #81
Happy Veterans day to all the current service members, veterans and patriots out there. Thank you!
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Bozo
Bozo   |     |   Comment #104
Deplorable 1 (re comment # 81), the only part of my Navy uniform I can still fit into is my hat, but still proud United States Naval Reserve (active duty 1969-1972; active reserve 1972-1980).

LCDR Bozo
DOA
DOA   |     |   Comment #105
Thank you for your service, Bozo.
Bozo
Bozo   |     |   Comment #106
DOA (re comment # 105), one to thank and say "never forget" is congressman-elect Dan Chapman (R-TX), retired Navy Seal with the famous skit on SNL. He made all of us Navy vets proud with his gracious demeanor. I hope, one day, he runs for President.
Real Patriot
Real Patriot   |     |   Comment #107
Bozo #1106, to bad your vote for Dan will be canceled by millions upon millions of registered to vote ILLEGALS in CA.
You should do something to solve that problem first.
Bozo
Bozo   |     |   Comment #108
Real Patriot (re comment #107), as I am a California resident, I cannot vote in Texas. That said, I am pleased to see any veteran elected to Congress. I am hopeful more will be. Still hoping McSally will be appointed to Kyl's Senate seat in Arizona. She's a class act. And a veteran.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #111
@Bozo comment #108: McSally decided not to fight unlike Rick Scott in Florida. There is massive voter fraud going on when a state would elect someone who said it was ok to fight for the Taliban after 9/11 vs. a veteran and patriot like McSally. Only legal U.S. citizens who are registered to vote with proper I.D. and in the correct precinct are supposed to be allowed to vote by law.
Viet veteran
Viet veteran   |     |   Comment #112
di di, mau on that political forum Ken
luvcd
luvcd   |     |   Comment #109
How can we make the so-call illegal voters register as Republicans and then we can proceed in a normal manner?
Vet Talk
Vet Talk   |     |   Comment #113
This is all being allowed by the Administrator on a "Fed & CD rates thread"? What a farce, - especially so inasmuch as the Administrator deletes posts by those members he doesn't like that are no more in violation of forum policy than the comments he lets stand. Why not have a professionally run forum where the rules are enforced impartially?
Viet veteran
Viet veteran   |     |   Comment #114
Stay tuned Vet Talk #113
Even your post may soon be
girl
girl   |     |   Comment #115
I'll stay in the high yield savings account earning 2.25% UNTIL or after the results of the Dec Fed meeting. Is it, interest rates, going up or status quo?
aube3000
aube3000   |     |   Comment #116
The 5 year CD rates are basically frozen solid. I'm getting worried . . .
gregk
gregk   |     |   Comment #117
They are? What's your evidence (and analysis)?
JamieResearch
JamieResearch   |     |   Comment #118
Hi, I'm new to this site and the comment thread. I'm looking to invest in a 12-month CD. I see from the comments (sorry, I don't really follow financial news) that there was an increase around Nov. 8. I also see from the comments that after the December meeting, there will likely be another one. So my question is, should I wait until the December meeting -- I know, waiting is always a gamble, and who knows what's going to happen beyond December -- to make my investment, or just do it now? Is it likely that there will be an increase, even if small? Sorry if this question sounds naive; like I said, I'm new to this.

Thanx so much!
welcome
welcome   |     |   Comment #119
what is the lowest % that you will accept?
do now have a funding account to move money?
11 month no withdrawal penalty at ally may be a good start.
RJM
RJM   |     |   Comment #120
Did you read the article above? Its VERY detailed.

Future Deposit Rate Predictions
So based on the recent rate histories of the top CDs and savings accounts, we may see top CD rates that are around 50 bps higher three months from now. And top savings account rates should be around 25 bps higher three months from now. That would result in a top 5-year CD APY at around 4.50% and a top 1-year CD APY at around 3.50%. The top savings or money market account APY may be around 2.75%.

CD and Savings Account Strategies In This Rising Rate Environment
With CD rates rising this fast, it seems prudent to avoid long-term CDs until we see at least two or three straight Fed meetings with no rate hikes.

CDs with 1-year terms can make more sense, but you probably won’t earn significantly more interest in these than in savings accounts over a full year. You’ll start off earning more in the first half of the term, but during the second half, savings account rates will likely be earning more than the CD. If you average out the interest earned in the savings account, it will likely be similar to the 1-year CD.

An example of comparing a savings account with a 1-year CD over a year in today’s interest rate environment can be seen by using Ally Bank. One year ago, the Ally Online Savings Account had a 1.25% APY. Today, it has a 1.90% APY. A rough average of the yield in the last year is 1.58%. A year ago, the top-tier rate of the Ally 12-month High Yield CD was 1.65%. As you can see, you would have earned just a little bit less in the savings account.

The one obvious downside with most CDs is the early withdrawal penalty. If you come across a hot CD deal and you want to fund it with an existing CD, you’ll be hit with an early withdrawal penalty.

Another downside with a CD is that it makes it more difficult to quickly deploy the funds when hot CD deals arise. If you need the funds for a hot CD, you’ll need to close the existing CD and transfer the funds to a savings or checking account that can be used to fund the new hot CD. Some banks like Ally can quickly close CDs and transfer the funds to an internal checking or savings account where the funds can be immediately available. That’s not always the case with some institutions.

Of course if you want to keep things simple with your safe money, a CD ladder is always a reasonable option. The ladder ensures you take advantage of higher rates as interest rates rise. You may want to favor shorter-term CDs for your ladder. However, beware of short-term CDs with terms under one year. At many internet banks, rates of CDs with terms of under one year continue to be well below savings account rates. These short-term CDs don’t make any sense. If you’re starting a CD ladder, don’t choose short-term CDs with rates under savings account rates.
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JamieResearch
JamieResearch   |     |   Comment #125
I did read the article, thank you. For the amount I want to invest, my research has shown me that the 1-year CD would have a higher return than a high-rate savings account -- significantly. The one I'm looking at is Discover, which has an APY of 2.60% for 12 months, as of today (Dec. 1). I don't want to tie the money up for longer than a year, but in the money market my money is sitting in now, I'm earning APY 0.06% -- you can see it's a big difference. I don't mind putting the money in for a year, I just don't want to go beyond that. And I know I don't want to do a CD ladder.

I read your summary in the comment. I see that three months from now, rates may go up to a top APY of 3.5% for a 1-year CD. So would you recommend I wait to get that (I know, it's a gamble), or go with the 2.6% that's listed for now? I also may wait another week to see if it goes up after the December meeting.
still contemplating?
still contemplating?   |     |   Comment #126
JR #125 get an Ally account and get the money in a 11mo CD at 2.25%. it is way more than you are making now. the ally account has high transfer limits and very easy linking to other bank / credit union accounts. you can close the CDs after 6 days if you find something else. you're loosing money right now.
#127 - This comment has been removed for violating our comment policy.
RJM
RJM   |     |   Comment #128
But, the 2.25% no penalty is a better option than a 2.6% one year.
JamieResearch
JamieResearch   |     |   Comment #129
I know I'm losing money now -- big time; that's why I really want to find the right option.

RJM, how is 2.25% no penalty better than a 2.6% one-year CD? I admit, I don't totally understand how the yields work.
???
???   |     |   Comment #130
its not about yield at this moment
at 100k the difference is $350 in a years time
a 11 mo No Withdrawal Penalty CD gives you
better income than you have and opportunity to find the best rate
if Dec rate increase comes from fed
Newbie1
Newbie1   |     |   Comment #131
Jamie, the no penalty CD is considered a better option than a 12 month fixed term because you have the option of closing the CD early without paying an early withdrawal penalty. If rates increase you can cash in the CD and open a new one at the higher rate and keep all the interest earned if the CD has no penalty. If you break the 12 month there will be a penalty. If kept for the entire term, the no penalty CD will not earn as much as the 12 month. It depends on your goals for the money. Are you waiting for higher rates to invest for a longer period, or do you know you want to use the money in a years time? Look at the CD rates and Savings account summaries on this site for some ideas.
JamieResearch
JamieResearch   |     |   Comment #132
OK, I get the logic of the no-penalty CD. Right now, I'm not looking beyond the year's time, and I want to get the most bang for my buck -- especially because, as someone else pointed out, I'm currently losing money. If the rate is 2.60, is it really going to go THAT much higher within the coming months? I read the article and the comments, as well as a few other articles; like I said earlier, this is not my forte, but if I'm understanding it correctly, it likely won't go up THAT much higher than it is now. Newbie1, if I'm just concerned with the next year (I don't want to tie the money up longer than that) and it doesn't appear the rate will go up that much higher in the coming months, would the fixed-rate CD be the way to go? I think I saw the rate increase will be Dec. 18-19 if it's going to happen, is that right? That's only 10 days away; I've waited this long, another 10 days won't make that much of a difference.
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#133 - This comment has been removed for violating our comment policy.
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