Fed's Pause Has Begun - Rate Predictions & CD Strategies for 2019

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There were no surprises yesterday when the Fed made its post-meeting statement. The federal funds rate remained the same, and the same patience language was used to describe the Fed’s future plans:

In light of global economic and financial developments and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will be patient as it determines what future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate may be appropriate to support these outcomes.

One thing that did change in the statement from January was the description of the current economic condition. There were clear downgrades in its view of the economy:

In January, the Fed’s statement included these positive views:

economic activity has been rising at a solid rate.

[...]

Household spending has continued to grow strongly

Yesterday’s statement changed the above lines to the following:

growth of economic activity has slowed from its solid rate in the fourth quarter

[...]

Recent indicators point to slower growth of household spending and business fixed investment in the first quarter

This policy action was an unanimous decision with no policymaker dissenting.

In addition to the statement, the Fed released an updated summary of economic projections (SEP). In the first table of this summary, you can see how the economic projections for future years show less growth than the December projections. For example, projected GDP numbers are down and unemployment rate numbers are up. PCE inflation numbers also went down, but the forecast core PCE inflation numbers did not change from December. These remained at 2.0%.

At the bottom of this first table, the forecast most interesting to savers is the projected federal funds rate. As expected, the median projected federal funds rate for 2019 and future years did go down from December. The median forecast for 2019 now indicates no rate hikes. This is down from two rate hikes that were indicated in December. Details about these federal funds rate projections are shown at the bottom of the SEP in the form of the “dot plot”.

There were two positive things to note from the dot plot. First, the median federal funds rate projections for 2020 do indicate one rate hike. So there is still a reasonable chance that Fed rate hikes are not over for this cycle. We may see at least one more rate hike in 2020. Second, no policymakers forecast a cut in the federal funds rate in the next three years. There was speculation that there would be at least one policymaker who would forecast a cut.

Lastly, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reinforced the message from the statement and in the SEP when he gave his press conference:

“We don’t see data coming in that suggest that we should move in either direction. They suggest that we should remain patient and let the situation clarify itself over time,”

In summary, we are now in a “pause” period. This is the first meeting that breaks the sequence of a rate hike after every other Fed meeting since the December 2017 rate hike.

Federal Funds Rate Futures

The federal funds rate futures as shown by the CME FedWatch Tool continue to show zero chance of a Fed rate hike in 2019. This has not change in the last couple of weeks. One thing that did change from Tuesday is an increased chance of a rate cut in 2019. The futures now show the odds of at least one rate cut by December to be 35.5%. Those odds of a rate cut have risen from 25.6% on Tuesday.

Future FOMC Meetings

The next three FOMC meetings are scheduled for April/May 30-1, June 18-19, and July 30-31. The June meeting will include the summary of economic projections. All meetings now include a press conference by the Fed Chair.

What Savers Should Expect in 2019

With the federal funds rate likely to hold steady for the rest of 2019, online savings account rates will also likely hold steady. The target range of the federal funds rate is 2.25% to 2.50%. This is the upper range of the current online savings account rates. The well-established internet banks like Ally and American Express have online savings account rates just below this range while the newer internet banks that are being more aggressive have rates that are in this range. These internet banks include PurePoint Financial, Rising Bank, Vio Bank and Citizens Access. We may see a few small rate hikes and rate cuts from the internet banks this year, but I doubt we will see the movement that we saw in 2018.

CD rates forecasting is more difficult. Several other factors in addition to movement (or lack of) in the federal funds rate impact this. One thing that tends to lead CD rate changes is changes in Treasury yields. Recent changes aren’t good news for savers.

The 10-year Treasury yield has dropped to a one-year low of 2.54%. The yield curve continues to flatten with several parts of the yield curve negative. For example, the one-month yield (2.45%) is now above the yields of the 5-year (2.34%) and the 7-year (2.44%). Fortunately, the 2-year yield (2.40%) is still under the 10-year (2.54%) with a 14 bps spread. When that spread goes negative, history has shown that a recession is likely to follow, and when there’s a recession, savings account and CD rates plummet.

With the Fed holding rates steady and with falling Treasury yields, there will likely be some downward pressure on CD rates. We have already seen this downward pressure in the last few months. First, Treasury yields declined in November as economic concerns grew. Then the brokered CD rates declined, and lastly, several direct CD rates declined.

Deposit Account Strategies

I think it’s very likely that we have either passed the peak of this rate cycle or we’re close to the peak. If the economy plays out as the Fed currently anticipates, we should only expect one more rate hike in 2020. If the Fed is too optimistic about the economy, it’s unlikely that we will see any more rate hikes for this cycle. In that case, the next move by the Fed may be a rate cut. Fortunately, there’s no indication that the Fed will rush to cut rates. It should take a big downturn in economic numbers to change the Fed. First, the Fed will change the language in its statements to suggest cuts are possible before it actually implements a rate cut. So we should have some time before we see any widespread deposit rate cuts.

Since we are likely at or near the rate cycle peak, I think it makes sense to look at long-term CDs. Many savers avoided these in 2018 as rates were rising. It’s no longer the time to avoid them. If you had suspended your CD ladders by not re-investing maturing CDs into new long-term CDs, it’s time to continue with your CD ladders by investing those funds back in long-term CDs.

There is still a slight chance that we are not close to the peak of this rate cycle. If you have any worry about being locked into a 5-year CD, make sure the 5-year CDs have early withdrawal penalties of no more than six months’ interest. In addition to reducing the risk of being locked into a CD as rates rise, it also gives you more flexibility to be able to use those funds for some other purpose that may arise in the future.

I’ve plugged in some top CDs into our CD Early Withdrawal Penalty Calculator so you can see how current competitive long-term CDs compare to competitive 1-year CDs when the 5-year CDs are closed early. The 1-year effective yields of the long-term CDs closed after one year are lower than the 1-year CD yield. The 5-year CD that has the highest effective 1-year yield when closed early is Ally Bank. With an EWP of 150 days, the effective yield is 1.81% at year one. That is 105 bps lower than Colorado Federal Savings Bank’s current 1-year CD rate (2.86% APY). If rates haven’t risen a year from now, and you hold on to that Ally 5-year CD, the effective yields grow. If rates rise by year two and it makes sense to close the 5-year CD, the effective yield of the Ally 5-year CD closed at year two will be 2.47%.

If you want to hedge your bets on future interest rates, it makes sense to go with a 5-year CD at Ally Bank or Colorado Federal Savings Bank. If you think the odds of any more rate hikes are too low, don’t worry about 6-month EWPs, and choose 5-year CDs with top rates like the 5-year Term Deposit at Mountain America Credit Union (MACU).

If you have CDs that won’t be maturing until later this year or next year, consider add-on CDs with long terms. Open the add-on CD now and you will lock in today’s CD rate until the CD matures. If rates fall by the time your current CDs mature, you can fall back on that add-on CD by making additional deposits into the add-on CD. Those additional funds will then begin earning that same CD rate that was set when the add-on CD was opened.

MACU offers add-on CDs that are called Term Deposit Plus accounts, and they have the same rates as their standard CDs (Term Deposit accounts). Unlimited additional deposits can be made, but there is one important limitation. The CD has a maximum balance of $100k.

The new internet bank, Rising Bank, offers two add-on CDs. These are called Rising CDs, and they have terms of 18 months and 3 years. For add-on CDs, the longer term ones are best for hedging bets on interest rates. The 3-year Rising CD currently has a 3.00% APY. Unfortunately, it has a high minimum deposit requirement of $25k. There’s a maximum balance of $500k, which is an important limitation to note. Another important limitation is that you are allowed to make no more than two additional deposits during the term of the 3-year Rising CD, and each deposit must be a minimum of $5k.

The 3-year Rising CD also provides two options to increase the rate if the 3-year Rising CD rate should happen to rise. I don’t consider that an important feature. It’s not clear in the CD disclosure, but I’ve been told by a Rising Bank official that this rising rate feature is completely independent from the add-on feature. In other words, you can exercise the add-on feature without the interest-rate feature. So if the CD rate falls, you don’t have to worry about your CD rate falling when you make the add-on deposit.


Comments
QED
QED   |     |   Comment #1
Hope everyone has by now locked in a decent rate for their liquid funds. Without a rate lock your liquid funds returns could be in jeopardy going forward. I have the Grow MM Promo deal, locked at 2.75%. Also have the PurePoint NPCD deal, locked at 2.6%.  That deal remains available I think. But how much longer will PurePoint be able to hold that high rate?  I would not be at all surprised to see it evaporate today or tomorrow.  And Ally Bank?  It's like an interest rate morgue over there.

CDs are different, of course. A great CD special could still emerge, owing to local circumstances or just because of a financial institution's mistake (think Sharonview). But have to concede great CD deals have become less likely. The Timberland 4% deal, for example, has already gone to CD deal heaven. So sad.  RIP
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #2
Any liquid funds with a rate lock are pretty much guaranteed to drop the second that lock expires. That being said 2.75% guaranteed for a year is a pretty good reason to lock. Interest rates on liquid accounts without a rate guarantee should remain stable for the time being. I think focusing on short term CD specials and long term add-on CD deals is a good strategy at the moment. If rates drop on liquid cash there are plenty of bank bonuses to pick up the slack. Corporate debt accounts like GM right notes paying 2.788% APY don't usually drop their rates until after a FED cut. Some banks do preemptively cut their savings rates though so it it wise to keep a eye on things.
gregk
gregk   |     |   Comment #3
Good summary, but no mention of the Fed's announcing its (premature) end of balance sheet reductions, and it's likely impact on future interest rates.
QED
QED   |     |   Comment #4
Your mention of this much appreciated. Thumbs up. I somehow missed it. So glad you brought this to everyone's attention.  It's a big deal and is a real disappointment.  Kudos

And by the way, I completely agree this move is outrageously premature and flat out inappropriate.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #5
You have got to wonder what the heck are they thinking. I'm getting worried about negative interest rates if we have another bad recession down the road. It looks to me like they are setting the stage now with this policy. If they don't raise rates and lower their balance sheet now while the economy is good they will not have the tools to provide much stimulus and they could use that as excuse to take rates negative in the future. Very disappointed in this move.
#6 - This comment has been removed for violating our comment policy.
aaaaa
aaaaa   |     |   Comment #7
The numbers don't make sense for a rate increase. Additional rate increases would likely cause or significantly contribute a recession and the Fed is not interested in being blamed (they still will).

Now, they have 2.25-2.50 rate available to cut back to 0, and they'll end up having about 700B in QE stimulus that they can pursue if need be which would bring it back to prior levels.

I was so hopeful of the rate increases myself, but as I started to study the economy, it became clear that high rates for the foreseeable future are a pipe dream. I am not a fan of QE or low rates, but this seems to be our reality for now.
Robb
Robb   |     |   Comment #8
@D1 The Fed really is a sham. Call it for what it is...they never saw the great recession coming in 2007 until well after the fact. They were expecting 3-4 rate hikes in 2019 as recently as the November 2018 meeting and now they see no hikes going out through 2019 (how can you trust that when over the past 3 months things totally reversed). They continue to suggest inflation is "muted" yet anyone who has to pay their healthcare premiums knows that is a joke. Rents as a percentage of income hit an all time high not long ago. Real estate near many of the big cities has become much less affordable to most per the realtors I know. Oil is up about 40-45% off the December lows just over the last 3 months.
Seem like they are chasing their tails around in circles...Really can't be trusted.
Brokered
Brokered   |     |   Comment #10
Stop expecting the FED to be prescient. They are not.

All this complaining about CD rates is somewhat hilarious. CD's are safe, FDIC insured instruments and, as such, are at the bottom of the food chain. The cost to rent your money WITHOUT RISK TO YOU is currently 2-3%. Improvise, adapt and overcome if you want a higher yield. It's sickening listening to people "demand" a better return on cash that is as safe and secure as possible.
Robb
Robb   |     |   Comment #11
@Brokered...many of us locked in good deals last year near the 4% mark so it is what it is and I learned to NEVER trust the Fed after the 2007 debacle. I just hate to see the speculators/debt takers rewarded at this point in the cycle when debt is near all time highs in many areas and savers continually oppressed while inflation surges on a number of fronts:

https://www.depositaccounts.com/community/ask/35732-opinion-optimal-term-cds-days.html
#20 - This comment has been removed for violating our comment policy.
Smith
Smith   |     |   Comment #56
Brokered, LOL, FDIC, insured CDs, what are you smoking, FDIC has enough money to insure only 0.001% of the savings held by the banks. That is what you get on your dollar if this nation goes belly up.
#15 - This comment has been removed for violating our comment policy.
larry
larry   |     |   Comment #16
Comment #15 Or Powell and the FED are telling to invest in stocks or more specifically "growth stocks." Maybe you've heard of this, don't fight the FED.
Smith
Smith   |     |   Comment #57
larry, the FED is selling their stock portfolios, they need someone to buy into their selling and make profit off of you. There is a sucker born every day, why the FED has interest in the stock market if they have brainwashed you to believe the FED is an independent entity.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #19
Hey Bill I don't think Trump should be pressuring the FED but he is concerned about the debt. Obama doubled the debt and Trump now has to deal with it. The real enemy of savers was Obama. As proof of this when was the last time banks paid 5% on savings? Pre Obama. Now we have the "new normal" or post Obama rates.
Bill Barr
Bill Barr   |     |   Comment #37
Trump should not pressure the FED. The FED should not punish savers.
Smith
Smith   |     |   Comment #58
Bill Barr should start believing that the FED is our enemy, they stage global economic slowdown and frighten people into believing they control the world. The globalists days are numbered.
NOTDEPLORABLE
NOTDEPLORABLE   |     |   Comment #66
Hey Deplorable, stop with the whining about Obama. It was Bushes false claims to chemical weapons wars and the housing debacle that Obama inherited. Trump inherited a growing economy. trump continued it through his facade methods which are now coming to light.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #67
Sure NOTDEPLORABLE I'll stop telling the Truth about Obama just as soon as you liberals stop complaining about Bush/Trump. There was weapons of mass destruction that got sent over to Iran through underground tunnels btw. Also chemical weapons were found as well as missiles.
https://canadafreepress.com/article/why-did-these-liberals-lie-about-weapons-of-mass-destruction
You probably don't think Iran has a nuclear program either. You know the one us taxpayers footed the bill for from Obama's wonderful Iran deal.
Bush didn't come up with the phrase "everybody deserves a house" Clinton and the Democrats did. Bush actually warned the senate banking committee several times about risky $0 down no doc loans only to be called a racist and a big meanie pants by the DEMS on the committee.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lr1M1T2Y314
which led to:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=it_Jh0u8bhA
Jason
Jason   |     |   Comment #77
deplorable 1 #67, you can not convince the democrats to denounce their support for the democrats no matter how much proof you show them. I have a sister, staunched democrat, she is just repeating to me what the MSM is telling her, she is brainwashed so much that I think she needs psychological care, it is the media influence they believe to and not the real facts, the facts are irrelevant to them. I'm not politically affiliate person but I think the democrats are on the way in cooperation with the media to destroy this country and now the socialists/communists infected the house and the senate and it will be very difficult to remove the socialist stench they leave behind. Also, I believe the influence of the MSM is so huge on the Americans, that they need to be banned as subversive extensions for the dems.
111
111   |     |   Comment #12
For decades there's been an old investing saying, "don't fight the Fed". Meaning, that based on historical averages, investors can do well to invest in a way that aligns with current monetary policies of the Fed, rather than against them. Whether you think the Fed shifted gears last year in a blatant attempt to "protect" the bull market, or instead because the market's negative reaction last quarter was a powerful new indicator that in the "new normal" (high debt, high Fed balance sheet), the economy couldn't sustain so many rate hikes as planned - the fact is, they did shift gears.

Now, some commenters on this website are mainly if not completely savers, and some like myself are using "deposit account products" (CDs, savings accounts, etc.) as the non-volatile, safer component of a diversified asset allocation strategy - actually, in place of bonds for the most part. So of course these two groups will have very different opinions about the Fed's shift.

If you look at it from the Fed's viewpoint, the market certainly did rebound since just before Christmas, after they shifted gears, and anyone with a diversified portfolio benefited. Instead of railing against the Fed, it may be time for some of the "savers only" group to reassess their risk/reward tolerance in a non-rising rate environment.
???
???   |     |   Comment #13
"savers only" won't be playing "the game"
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #18
@111: I'm invested in various stocks as well as CD's and my stocks are doing well. My concern with these low interest rates isn't just about personal profit. Debt and lack of savings is a big problem in this country and higher interest rates encourage people to save. Lack of savings was a big part of the housing and financial crisis. If you recall the personal savings rate went negative just before the housing crisis. It's bad enough now but could you imagine what would happen if the FED started a negative interest rate policy during the next recession? This could cause a run on the banks causing another financial meltdown. What would you do if CD's payed 0% or even worse the banks started charging interest to hold your cash? Interest rates should be at 5% now because the FED should have been hiking during Obama's second term when they were telling us how we had a economic recovery. At minimum we need 3% before the next recession or back to 0% we go and I don't think anyone wants that.
111
111   |     |   Comment #22
D1 - I understand your position and even partly agree. It's just that historically, "fighting the Fed" has been a losing proposition for investors most of the time.

Also, more and more lately, I'm taking a position on these macroeconomic issues that some might even call "selfish". That's because I realize that for the most part, the Fed's going do what the Fed's going to do. I don't consider that I have a great deal of control over that. Yes, at the ballot box I do, and I exercise that, but that's a diluted form of "control" over politics in general, and since a Fed Chairman is appointed only once every 4 years, my "control" over the Fed is indirect and even more diluted. As anonymous monikers on the web, me (or you) shaking our fists at the Fed doesn't really mean much. As I see it, my task for me and mine is instead to make the best investments and/or deposits in the investing / interest rate environment that is presented to me, at any given point in time.

I took a look at last year, and last quarter particularly. Stocks had a bit of a fit last quarter, due in some part to the Fed's decision to stick to the 4 hikes they'd telegraphed earlier. (Different people can of course disagree over how much it was that, versus other factors.) For anyone who had a reasonably diversified asset allocation including both stocks and "non-volatile assets" (let's say, CDs), after a decent 1st 3 quarters, they likely lost more in the last quarter in stocks than they gained in higher rates for fixed interest.

I also took a look at the period of time between when the Fed shifted, and today. For anyone who had that same reasonably diversified asset allocation, they most likely GAINED more in stocks than they LOST in higher rates for fixed interest.

I consider depositaccounts.com much more a website devoted to helping people to select top-tier deposit instruments - either as "savers only", or as part of a diversified portfolio - as opposed to a forum for suggesting what the Fed should do. Now, PREDICTING what the Fed MIGHT do - that's a little different, because it informs the process of making decisions about particular investments and deposit instruments.
111
111   |     |   Comment #23
D1 - Oh - you also said "What would you do if ... the banks started charging interest to hold your cash?" I've investigated that!

I'm in the process of patenting an under-the-mattress-sized, secure storage bag for cash, which I plan on marketing on all the Prepper websites. It will also be completely waterproof, for the protection of certain customers (those much, much older than myself, of course) who might have certain "issues".
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #34
I just don't want to have to buy a fireproof safe and keep cash in the house. I guess I could build a sweet bunker in my back yard like that movie "Blast from the past".
anonymous
anonymous   |     |   Comment #40
On the topic of negative interest rates ... I recently found Ben Bernanke's blog and he adds some interesting insights into this topic in some 2016 blog posts. Basically, he concludes that negative rates would be difficult to practically implement in the U.S. and would have limited effect, so he does not consider it a likely option the Fed would use. Some of his other posts are good too, such as how the Fed determines the neutral rate that they target.


https://www.brookings.edu/blog/ben-bernanke/
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/ben-bernanke/2016/03/18/what-tools-does-the-fed-have-left-part-1-negative-interest-rates/
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/ben-bernanke/2016/03/24/what-tools-does-the-fed-have-left-part-2-targeting-longer-term-interest-rates/
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/ben-bernanke/2016/04/11/what-tools-does-the-fed-have-left-part-3-helicopter-money/
Get Real
Get Real   |     |   Comment #25
Where are the 5 to 6 % rates you were predicting? Now people are running for MACU before they drop their rates. Oh we did have a short term 5% CD.
Smith
Smith   |     |   Comment #59
111, "don't fight the Fed" was spread by the FED itself using the MSM, do you see how the media has power to brainwash people, the FED is a globalist cartel, they are here to enslave the American people into believing we have savior in the FED and to save ourselves from the government, see how the FED duped the people.
Patriot News
Patriot News   |     |   Comment #60
"Don't Fight"

Spoken like Bilderberg Democrat!

Fight, Patriots!
Smith
Smith   |     |   Comment #64
gregk #3, you believe in FED's balance sheet, how funny, they tell you what you want to hear, most of the times lies, nobody knows nor they have ever been audited of what they do with the money since their inception (close to 400 trillion dollars collected from USA so far), be real and stop believing the FED's lies. They are created to enslave the Americans, read some factual history about them, you will be shocked.
Brokered
Brokered   |     |   Comment #9
Brokered 10/5 year are dropping again...
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/FixedIncomeHome
Francis
Francis   |     |   Comment #14
If you quality for membership, all of Freedom credit unions regular CDs allow add on deposits. They lowered their rates by a small amount this week. But still on the terms of 30 to 60 months the rates are 3 - 3.15%. I opened a 3, 4 and 5 year CD last week.
https://www.freedomcu.org/
SMT1
SMT1   |     |   Comment #24
Francis #14. Thanks for your post pointing out Freedom's Add On feature. I have [email protected]% and the recent [email protected]% and was not even aware of the add on features. Now I think I am going to open a longer-term CD with a minimum deposit as insurance against potentially falling rates down the road. "(Y)"
anonymous
anonymous   |     |   Comment #27
SMT1 -- I think the two Freedom CU certificates you mentioned were promotional CDs and do not include the add-on feature.
SMT1
SMT1   |     |   Comment #28
Thanks, makes sense, I'll check that out. Either way, the 5yr add-on looks good for insurance. Min deposit $500 to protect 5 years @ 3.15%
SMT1
SMT1   |     |   Comment #26
A question for anyone. Is there a list somewhere that has been compiled that shows just Add On Cds?
RZ
RZ   |     |   Comment #17
Short term bond funds such as VFSUX as a temporary and liquid instrument to park cash has been working out well for me. Although the yield has drifted back down to 3.13%, the NAV will likely increase modestly or remain stable as long as the Fed has rates on hold.
Bowman
Bowman   |     |   Comment #21
I've used VUBFX for the similarly.
Brokered
Brokered   |     |   Comment #29
So now we get to hear from those who held out, missed "peak rates" for this cycle and are now anti-FED. Not long ago you were cheering the FED on as rates rose from the doldrums. Give it up. Your opinion, my opinion and Ken's opinion have no meaning in FED land. We are all mere bystanders on the great economic stage.
Rolling with the punches
Rolling with the punches   |     |   Comment #30
I agree with Brokered, somewhat. Complaining about the Fed or cd rates is pretty useless. But I do value Ken's information and opinions much more than any anonymous forum poster (no offense to anybody).

I just roll with the punches and when a cd matures on my ladder, I seek out whatever good yield is out there and resupply the top rung. Simple, easy, and stress free. It also helps to be at a comfortable financial stage in life where you don't actually need the absolute highest rate. I'm not rich by any means, but just very thankful.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #33
I'm not crying about CD rates just disagreeing with current FED policy particularly stopping the QE unwind. If I missed out on 4% CD's I will just have to settle for 25% bank bonuses and/or dividends plus stock appreciation. This is why I keep half my money in stocks. I don't fight the FED I play both sides.
Bill Barr
Bill Barr   |     |   Comment #36
I think the FED and Trump are damaging savers, who are the backbone of capitalism.
Smith
Smith   |     |   Comment #61
My goodness Bill, the FED "backbone of capitalism", come on, they work for the Bank of England and the Queen, the FED is here to collect the usury from the sheeple, they feel it is own as former colony, wise up people!
Bill Barr
Bill Barr   |     |   Comment #73
SAVERS are the backbone of capitalism, not the FED!!
willy12
willy12   |     |   Comment #100
If everyone saved like me, I think the economy would collapse.

Spending is what drives the economy.

And there will never be a shortage of spenders.
dollarsncents
dollarsncents   |     |   Comment #101
At one time our government through the IRS rewarded savers by by allowing a certain amount of interest earned on savings to be tax free. The amount was double for married couples filing jointly. Of course that was more than years ago. Unfortunately we'll never see that again.
willy12
willy12   |     |   Comment #104
My only complaint is I cannot use interest earnings to fund an IRA.
Newbie1
Newbie1   |     |   Comment #138
@101. That would have been a welcome addition to the recent tax law revamp.
Jeanne Pirro
Jeanne Pirro   |     |   Comment #31
Savers help the country.
Brokered
Brokered   |     |   Comment #32
#31
Ok, and the current value of your savings in an ultra safe CD is around 3% for a 5-yr commitment. If you want more yield you'll have to accept more risk. The FED is not in charge of your finances.
Bill Barr
Bill Barr   |     |   Comment #35
Why aren't savers rewarded, rather than debt takers and speculators?
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #38
It seems as if the government does nothing but encourages bad behavior. Low interest rates encourage people to take on debt they couldn't otherwise afford. Have kids you can't afford to feed or take care of well here is a welfare check for you. Too lazy to work here is a free check and a HUD house. You can't afford a new cell phone well here is a "free" one for you. Can't pay your house payment here is a special low rate mortgage for you. And on and on it goes. Why take any personal responsibility for anything big brother will just bail you out. On the backs of the workers that is.
Nothing
Nothing   |     |   Comment #39
"Low interest rates encourage people to take on debt they couldn't otherwise afford." Would that include political leaders taking in a corporate entity and finding that their business model was "flawed," requiring bankruptcy? Be careful with all these pearls of wisdom!

People can buy a personal residence in several states, take a highly leveraged mortgage (all legal) and have no personal liability...that's the law of those states!!! In those states, an "informed" prospective homeowner is wise to consider that as an option....been the law since the 30s!
Brokered
Brokered   |     |   Comment #47
#35
Because savers want FDIC insured CD's and that means little or no risk. Low risk = low reward.
oh oh
oh oh   |     |   Comment #49
Dow down 400
oh oh too
oh oh too   |     |   Comment #54
Bond market flashes recession. Yield inversion.
111
111   |     |   Comment #68
I may be wrong (and not going to check now since we're watching a movie), but I don't think the recent yield inversion is the classic "Recession Predictor" inversion - which I THINK is the 2-year vs. the 10-year? It's a different one, which has less predictive power. And even with the "classic" inversion, I think historical data says that after it, you don't get a recession for 1-2 years after. At least that's what I recall reading.
Ricochet
Ricochet   |     |   Comment #165
111 #68
The 10 vs 2 is passe
The new comparative is
10 vs 6mo
Newbie1
Newbie1   |     |   Comment #170
@68, 111 & @#165, Ricohet:
You might find this interesting...
https://www.fuqua.duke.edu/duke-fuqua-insights/harvey-yield-curve-2019
Smith
Smith   |     |   Comment #62
Bill Barr, this is a debt driven economy, did you go to college to be brainwashed and told millions of lies of how the economy works.
Bill Barr
Bill Barr   |     |   Comment #74
Debt driven economies always die in the long run.
Jason
Jason   |     |   Comment #78
#74, You just admitted that the debt is bad, but somehow you trust the FED to crate more money and more money and more money, until when, have you ever asked the question of who these people are, that are forcing us to accumulate debt and why?
Bill Barr
Bill Barr   |     |   Comment #115
I don't trust the FED at all. The FED and Trump are the enemies of savers, and savers are the backbone of capitalism.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #41
I think this is part of the problem. It looks like us savers are going to be victims of the bad "global" economy.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets/german-10-year-bond-yields-crash-below-zero-as-growth-fears-roil-markets-idUSKCN1R304I
Ben Kiggle
Ben Kiggle   |     |   Comment #42
Deplorable, I distinctly remember arguing with you last year when I explained to you the tax cut for children of billionaires would provide a 1% GDP boost in 2018 at a cost of $1.5 trillion and a quick slowdown in 2019.

This slowdown is not a surprise to people who actually pay attention. Try it.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #43
This is not a U.S. slowdown. Well it is only to the extent that the U.S. economy is effected by the global economy. This has nothing to do with the tax cuts which saved me plenty. The global economy is in bad shape because they have Socialist leaders and policies. The U.S. economy is in the best shape comparatively and is bucking the global trend(because of tax cuts and policy) but we are not a economic island and this will effect us to some degree.
Robb
Robb   |     |   Comment #44
The German 10 Year Note blowing negative this morning for the first time since 2016...our 10 year note all the way down to 2.45% a really big move from the peak last quarter of 3.25%....ouch!

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/22/german-10-year-bond-yield-turns-negative-for-the-first-time-since-october-2016.html

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmbmkde-10y?countrycode=bx
Robb
Robb   |     |   Comment #48
Rate cut odds now higher for the first time than no change looking out to the January 2020 meeting. No doubt global growth or lack thereof continues to weigh:

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
Jason
Jason   |     |   Comment #80
deplorable 1 #41, now you realize the FED are controlled by the globalists, they create the narrative of what is next, the facts and the real economy are irrelevant, the FED mouth is what the media reports and not the facts, therefore, we are believing the lying FED and to follow their intent from the cartel's order and not the real facts.
Example: The FED says the GDP now is 1%, who is there to oppose them with real facts that the economy is growing at 3% or the inflation is at 0% and not the real 7%, who can oppose them, nobody, economy driven by make believe numbers is what the globalists do and that is how they keep the people into subdued mind and to accept the results as reported by the bias and lying media too, as a confirmation of the lies.
Brokered
Brokered   |     |   Comment #45
Brokered going down again...
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/FixedIncomeHome
Schwab has a few tad higher rates but they are followed by lower rate issues.

Global forces will ultimately prevail.
Jason
Jason   |     |   Comment #82
Brokered #45, you said: "Global forces will ultimately prevail.", not if Trump succeeds to dismantle the FED or expose them to the world that they are nothing more than a global cartel to collect money from USA without having any money, but just an ability to create money without any cost to them, the people can do the same thing by printing money from the treasury and we will not need to pay back the interest.
Brokered
Brokered   |     |   Comment #102
#82
Trump will not dismantle the FED.
Sandy
Sandy   |     |   Comment #111
Brokered 102, if only he can get some help from the senate, it will work, there are many options to do it, including national emergency if we can not collect enough taxes to pay the debt, that would be another option and if he can make congress to require the FED to be audited since inception, that would be another option and I'm sure Trump is working on some other options, he loves this country to much to let it rot and let all options expire without even a try.
Brokered
Brokered   |     |   Comment #46
Watch the bond yield curve very carefully. Historically, it's a good indicator of a pending recession. I'm not an advocate of fear but if I was heavily invested in stocks (as I once was) I'd be preparing for a hit of 20% or more. It's been a heck of a ride but the boom and bust cycle is part of the fiscal genetic code. I predict millions of retail investors who have never experienced a serious downturn will panic in droves. If CD's are your base "investment" and your plans involve "final wishes" (i.e. casket or cremation) you'll be thankful for the safety and stability of CD interest payments. I know my spouse is!
TRAX
TRAX   |     |   Comment #51
You may be right but that will be a great time to BUY!!
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #52
I used to be invested 80% in stocks but after 2008 I never sold at a loss but I started pulling dividends out of the market and keeping more in cash/cash equivalents. I had to reevaluate my risk tolerance. I'm now approximately 50% stocks 50% cash. Most people make 2 big mistakes when investing:
1. They buy stocks that don't pay dividends hoping for the big payoff. I call this casino investing.
2. They panic sell locking in a loss.
If a stock doesn't pay at least a 5% quarterly/monthly dividend I don't even look at it. This way if the market tanks you always have options without selling at a loss. This strategy worked very well in 2008 I didn't sell anything and it all recovered.
#50 - This comment has been removed for violating our comment policy.
Milty
Milty   |     |   Comment #63
Not sure if this has been covered here yet, but the Moore appointment does not appear to bode well for us savers. Gather ye long term rates while ye may . . .
Seaview
Seaview   |     |   Comment #71
As a saver and cd holder will you folks be doing anything different in light of the latest Fed minutes & commentary? Any immediate changes, ie: adding more long term, or just staying the course with your current ladder or allocation. Anyone breaking a shorter cd to go longer?
336
336   |     |   Comment #72
#71
I am planning on Andrews FCU 7 year 3.45%
SMT1
SMT1   |     |   Comment #75
Seaview #71
Lock up any longer-term Add-on CDs that you can. MACU, Freedom CU, Rising Bank, and GTE Financial. Grab regular CDs at Utah First [email protected]% and Unitus [email protected]% before they're gone. #72 comment from 336 also may be worth considering, Andrews [email protected]

Your comment about breaking a shorter term CD to go longer made me take a look. It all depends on the details. I have a [email protected]% at NAVY that has 4.5 mos left so I would lose 1.5 mos of interest if broken. I am in the process of becoming a member at GTE Financial to obtain their add-on CD, [email protected]% which only requires a $500 deposit. They also have [email protected]%, but it requires a $100K deposit. If I withdraw $100K out of NAVY, I would lose $269 over the remaining 4.5 months, but I would gain 55.5 months of Rate Insurance at 3.3% with no Max on what could be deposited in that CD. I think that's worth the $269! Thanks for prompting me to think about breaking a shorter term CD, Seaview.
Nothing
Nothing   |     |   Comment #81
And navy will never take you back?
SMT1
SMT1   |     |   Comment #96
Nothing #81. Hahaha, I won’t be ending account and my wife and I have a total of 6 CDs with NAVY. I think we’re fine.
Nothing
Nothing   |     |   Comment #97
I quote you, "If I withdraw $100K out of NAVY, I would lose $269 over the remaining 4.5 months, but I would gain 55.5 months of Rate Insurance at 3.3% with no Max on what could be deposited in that CD. I think that's worth the $269!"

Why would any CU "like" a member that is in/out?
SMT1
SMT1   |     |   Comment #112
Nothing #97. Your anonymous moniker and tone of your posts obviously point to the fact that you are probably one of the trolls that populate this site. Regardless, I will give you a response based on logic and possibly help improve your business IQ.

With rare exception, CU's and banks love when their customers break CD's and they can charge them an EWP. That improves their profit margins. That is what businesses like to do.

In my case, the CD I may withdraw 100k from currently has 194k in it. As I mentioned, my wife and I have 6 CDs with NAVY and will continue to have 6 CDs with them. As of 3/2/19, we have $565.704 invested in their credit union. I don't think they are going to sweat me removing 100K if I chose to and improving their profit margins to boot.

"And NAVY will never take you back?" Too funny! What are they, my high school girlfriend! They are a business and we as their customers are all businesses trying to maximize profits...get a clue!
111
111   |     |   Comment #87
Add-on CDs can come in handy. Northwest FCU ("where the CIA banks") used to have 2-year, add-on CDs that could be started for $500. They had either no max, or a very high max. I started buying these every 6 months, for ourselves and family, beginning I think in early 2008. I stopped in early 2012 when the rate for new ones was around 1%. The "sweet spot" was the last year or in some cases the last 6 months, depending on how much rates dropped.

Northwest still has this product, but their rates now relative to the overall rate environment are not nearly as good as back then. I expect they probably got "bit" on these earlier.
Southern Girl
Southern Girl   |     |   Comment #224
FYI. You will also receive a free cruise.
dollarsncents
dollarsncents   |     |   Comment #76
Staying the course with my laddered CD investing, just as I have done for decades.
If it isn't broke, no reason to fix it.

The course of interest rates can change on a dime.  It was just a short month or so ago some people here thought interest rates had no where to go but UP.  You can see how fast that attitude changed.
SMT1
SMT1   |     |   Comment #79
Dollarscents #76 Very true that rates can change on a dime, but rate insurance that costs very little in initial deposit like $5 at MACU are always smart play.
Jason
Jason   |     |   Comment #84
dollarsncents, you can not ladder CDs when the rates are expected to go down on long run, it will be a sure loser.
dollarsncents
dollarsncents   |     |   Comment #89
Jason, Not with a properly structured ladder already in place. Never lost yet. I have always come out with a very good average without any fuss. I know from real life experience How about you?

Expectations? "Never fight the Feds" or try to out guess their actions.

Where will the interest rates be when your 5 and 7 year CDs mature? Rates could be much higher or they could be rock bottom when it's time to renew them.
Patriot's Hart
Patriot's Hart   |     |   Comment #142
dollarsncents #89, I can tell you this, in 5-7 years two things will happen.
a) Trump stays president until then, this country will be blessed by GOD and I will celebrate the new freedom from the globalists being sent packing out of here. I will not care what the rates will be then.

b) The democrats take the presidency until then, I will do EWP the moment one of those socialists/democrats is sworn in and take my money out of USA, reason, they can not stand independent, self sufficient people and will issue an order for confiscation all of the wealth and be given to the illegals who will be pouring in from around the globe.
c) The choice is ours, the dems told you what they want to do, Trump told us what he wants to do (liberate us from the cartel, globalists, deep state operatives and make this country great again and give the government's keys to the people again).
Jason
Jason   |     |   Comment #83
Seaview, I just locked my 5 and 7 years CDs, I suggest you do the same.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #140
@Seaview: Only opening long term add-on CD's for rate insurance but I was doing this before the last FED meeting anyway. You need to have a few options for liquid cash just in case the banks decide to lower rates on liquid savings and MMA's. I wouldn't panic though as short term rates should remain fairly constant for now.
willy12
willy12   |     |   Comment #141
Dep, I have no add ons and missed MACU and Hyperion.

I have a large amount from Keesler that matured. I can still buy a 19 month at 3% because their customer service dropped the ball in giving me wire instructions.

I am leaning toward spending 1/3 of my Keesler proceeds for the new Keesler 19 month, partially for a future deal if they have one. But also because I do not have to open another account and risk chexsystem inquiries somewhere else.

I also have a large Andrews maturing next month and right now, I have no idea what I am going to do with it or the excess from Keesler. I can park money at 2.50% at Northern & AA.

I sure wish Andrews or someone would come up with a deal on 12-36 month.

What do you think? Sit tight for now?
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #143
@Willy12: I have that same Andrews 2.75% CD and a few others coming back next month as well. NFCU still has their 17 month 3.25% add-on CD which is probably where that money will go next as well as a few bank bonuses. Maybe check out Grow financial some folks reported being able to get 2.75% on liquid cash just by calling and asking. There is also GM right notes @ 2.788% APY but no FDIC insurance with that one. There may still be a few decent add-on CD's floating around somewhere possibly locally for you. Good luck
Newbie1
Newbie1   |     |   Comment #159
GTE still has 5yrs at 3.3% for 100k+, 3.0% under 100k. Jumbos come with a cruise package of some sort and opening a non-jumbo CD is an entry to win a cruise package.
willy12
willy12   |     |   Comment #175
Thanks Newbie, but I am not willing to go 4-5 years for rates below 4%.
Newbie1
Newbie1   |     |   Comment #179
@willy. No problem. They are currently add-ons with a $500 entry for the 3.04% rate. No max. I still remember when we 3% was hard to find.
Seaview
Seaview   |     |   Comment #146
Reply to deplorable #140. My options for liquid cash if rates go down. That is certainly likely. I'm not sure. Maybe starting now, buying a bunch of 1 year cd's every other month. I still need to keep that money somewhat liquid and not tie it up long term. But if 1 year rates also tank, then all bets are off. After taxes and inflation, I would have no profit. (I barely have a profit now.)
gregk
gregk   |     |   Comment #88
Feeling gassed by this dizzying reversal of rate trends since mid-December, for me culminating in a race to the finish line getting matured Keesler 7 month funds into MACU's 5 year before their rate drop took effect. My deposit account portfolio is now set for a while (next maturing Certificates not for two and a half years) with a tolerably satisfactory outcome as follows (all 5 year terms):

Inova FCU - 3.80% APY (step-up)
US Senate FCU - 3.69% APY
Mountain America CU - 3.51% APY

Missed out on the 4.00% offers because had everything in still ticking PenFed Certificates, -
the way it goes sometimes (so glad to have parted ways with them finally, - but not without a bit of nostalgia for the good days)..

Now let's watch a big inflation turn our 3% to 4% commitments into a very bad marriage.
crying in my soup
crying in my soup   |     |   Comment #91
Is there any indication that short term cd's will be declining? I'm loaded up on shorties thanks to deplorable's advice a couple months ago. He was predicting 4% coming soon? Now I don't have any available cash to go long.
pitter
pitter   |     |   Comment #94
crying in my soup, 99% of the posters ignored the deplorable 1 for the prediction, actually, many posters said the opposite, if you paid attention the the rest of us, you would have not locked in short term CDs, but would have kept them liquid or invested in LONG term CDs.
If the penalty is not to harsh, you can close them and pay the EWP, it may be worth it. Do some math before doing that.
crying in my soup
crying in my soup   |     |   Comment #95
Thanks pitter I don't totally blame deplorable. It was my decision. I broke a personal rule and that is to be very careful about what you read in internet forums, especially financial forums. Even from daily posters who claim to be very knowledgeable. Do your own diligence. You never know, my 2.80% short cd's might look good in a few months.
#99 - This comment has been removed for violating our comment policy.
336
336   |     |   Comment #106
Why do you guys continually troll people? I don't see anybody quashing your posts or trolling you on every thread. Just let people alone, obviously constant badgering might create a reaction - but maybe that is what you are looking for. If so, don't be surprised when it comes.
#108 - This comment has been removed for violating our comment policy.
#151 - This comment has been removed for violating our comment policy.
#234 - This comment has been removed for violating our comment policy.
Sandy
Sandy   |     |   Comment #113
#95 and what would you do after the short term CDs expire, your only option may be short term CDs again, that may work since the short term treasury bills are on par with 10 year notes.
larry
larry   |     |   Comment #105
crying in my soup (Comment #91, Comment #95) pitter (Comment #94) Sam Kiggle Comment #99) The little moniker man is back talking to him/herself. I'm hurt you left me 5 handle larry out of your criticism. When the next 4 handle offer comes make sure you come out of hiding to thank us.
#107 - This comment has been removed for violating our comment policy.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #117
Instead of crying about not having cash tied up at 4% why don't you guys use your liquid cash to do some bank bonuses? You can easily beat 4% on even the worst bank bonus while still keeping funds fairly liquid. I have earned anywhere from 10%-100% ROI on various bonuses with liquid cash all FDIC insured with 0% risk.
Here is a good updated list:
https://www.doctorofcredit.com/best-bank-account-bonuses/
Ken has a good short list on the savings and checking drop down menu.
larry
larry   |     |   Comment #120
Comment #107 Exactly how wrong could I be when we had a 4 and 5 handle offers in 2018 and another 4 handle offer this year 2109. You probably were tired running from computer to computer with different monikers while down at the library that you missed it!
Sam Kiggle
Sam Kiggle   |     |   Comment #122
Larry, if you paid attention, you would know there are still 4%, and 5% CDs. They just aren't actually available to more than 20,000 Americans.

So, thanks for your predictions, hope you got paid your two cents.
larry
larry   |     |   Comment #131
(Comment #122) Kigg's, so d1 and I are supposed to make sure YOU qualify for these 4 and 5% offers? If you aren't smart enough to figure out how to earn 4-5% on your money then maybe you take some financial classes. I don't want to speak for d1, but I've consistently been able to make at the very least 4% per year for many years. We've listed several ways to help boost your bottom line, so maybe you pay attention and explore those opportunities. Have a nice day!
Sam Kiggle
Sam Kiggle   |     |   Comment #132
Larry, I can't understand if you seriously don't realize you have been completely wrong or if your ego just won't let you admit it.
larry
larry   |     |   Comment #135
(Comment #132) Kigg's, no one is responsible for you to achieve 4+% on your money. If your not smart enough to learn then go take some financial classes. Here's the problem, you want someone to SPOON FEED you 4-5% offers and guess what, that's not going to happen. So you want the forum to know that EVERYONE is wrong because your not smart enough to get in on these offers. Get off the little moniker nonsense and do some reading to improve you financial literacy. Enjoy!
#152 - This comment has been removed for violating our comment policy.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #114
Hey guys Since when do I tell anyone what to do? I just post some ideas and strategies and you can take them or leave them. I didn't say not to put any money in a 4% CD all I said was that I wasn't doing it. I did tell people not to lock in that 7+ year 3% CD a while back and they could have easily gotten 4% for the same term last year. My most recent advice was to lock in long term add-on CD's specifically at MACU for rate insurance. It's not my fault that the FED seems to have a done complete 180 overnight or that the global economy seems to be tanking causing treasury yields to drop. We could still get another rate hike or two before rates drop again. The FED's dot plot suggests one hike in 2020 which was surprising.
gregk
gregk   |     |   Comment #130
The dot plot "one hike in 2020" maneuver was no more than a sop to the markets, deplorable1, which always love predictions of future hikes as indicative of continuing economic strength,

Bet the trajectory is downwards from here.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #119
@Larry: I must have a bigger target on my back. Funny how we did actually get the 4-5% CD's for a short time even with the FED's recent reversal. Do we get any credit for calling it? nope. Then if you tell people to lock up 4% CD's and there is a 5% special next year they will blame you because they locked.
#121 - This comment has been removed for violating our comment policy.
willy12
willy12   |     |   Comment #123
I pay little attention to such predictions which are bound to often be wrong.
So what if he was wrong in predicting rates?

Did you make life & death financial decisions based on an anonymous posters predictions?
#125 - This comment has been removed for violating our comment policy.
willy12
willy12   |     |   Comment #133
I see little reason to attack honest posters. Unless your intent is to cause problems.
#150 - This comment has been removed for violating our comment policy.
TheDems
TheDems   |     |   Comment #155
Lisa Kiggle #150 any verbal attack is not physical or a character attack is not physical and many other attacks can be classified as non violent attacks, like passive attack.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #127
No I actually called 4% before that CD came out I think it was the day before actually. What difference does it make anyway? I still don't want to have cash tied up at 4% even now in hindsight. If I want a 5% CD I'll just go over to GTE and open a 6 mo. CD with my 2% cashback card and do it again in 6 mo. earning a 5.26% rate. Or I'll do some bank bonuses for a 25% ROI. If I really feel adventurous I'll do another 0% no fee balance transfer and do this with the bank's money. Then if stocks happen to drop creating a buying opportunity I'll have liquid cash available.
larry
larry   |     |   Comment #124
d1 (Comment #119) I know and that's exactly what I just posted. Investors have to realize that the Fed could change their mind again in a blink of an eye. Seems very possible we will see some surprise offers and we just have to be patient.
Sam Kiggle
Sam Kiggle   |     |   Comment #126
Larry, the problem with your "who knows I just guess" is that this year's slowdown was widely predicted, as a direct response to last year's $1.5 trillion debt financed short term boost in GDP. You can't learn if you don't even try.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #128
@Sam: This slowdown is "GLOBAL" and as such has 100% nothing to do with the U.S. tax cuts! What part of this are you not getting? In fact if not for the tax cuts our economy would be as bad as the rest of the world. Please buy a clue and pay attention. Now your going to blame Trump for a slowdown in the global economy.
Sam Kiggle
Sam Kiggle   |     |   Comment #129
Deplorable, I can't understand why you take yourself so seriously.
pitter
pitter   |     |   Comment #92
gregk #88, It is always like that, the FED always win because they control the narrative via the biased media. They will make you lock the CD(s) and they will raise the inflation forecasts or vice versa. It is the globalists who control the FED and not the Americans, that is as sure as black and white. Trump wants to dismantle them, because they can destroy the US economy overnight or can make us pay exuberant amount of money to the national debt and destroy the credibility and the AAA status of the US credit rating. Think of the FED as your ex, child support, spouse support, in perpetuity or until you are financially ruined, that is what the FED does to us, they want us to pay interest on the debt that we borrowed decades ago and adding new one every day, there is no escape the money pit of printing to pay for the previously money printed.
Milty
Milty   |     |   Comment #93
@Gregk:. Assuming you have all the liquid cash you need, I think you did well with your CDs. Most of us have little to no influence over what the Fed says or does, and so we can only cultivate our own gardens, with the help of Ken and many others here of course.
Daniel2000
Daniel2000   |     |   Comment #202
Amazing, I see myself in this story :-)...last year got a few ~1 year CDs at 3+% rates and now am kicking myself because by the time they mature the long term rates will be lower...but I was hoping that the long term rates would have caught up with the short term rates.
Brokered
Brokered   |     |   Comment #103
When people speak of inflation I hope they compute the effect of the tax break on their personal inflation...which is what really counts at the micro level. On $50K it's about $1100. That's an extra 2.2% of gross in your pocket, compliments of the R's.

Think of the opposite. Higher taxes means your personal inflation just got worse, sometimes a lot worse.
Bill Barr
Bill Barr   |     |   Comment #116
Why did the FED turn on a dime last December?
Mak
Mak   |     |   Comment #166
#116.... they turned on a dime because the market dropped 20% in less than a month...they wanted to get the rates up while they had a chance so they could lower them again..:)
Get Real
Get Real   |     |   Comment #147
Some people got little or no tax cuts. I also watch my local taxes go up as well as state taxes. Also, my electric bill is going up $2 a month to keep 2 nuclear plants operating in my state. My water and electric billswill be going up soon due to rate hikes. I'm paying 40 cents more for gasoline than 2 months ago.
#153 - This comment has been removed for violating our comment policy.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #136
Meanwhile it looks like Mueller has wrapped up his investigation:
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/dems-conference-call-grapples-with-mueller-reports-unknowns
The bottom line so far from the article:
"Mueller did not charge any Americans with illegally conspiring with Russians on any matter, including election interference -- a foundational reason for the launch of his high-profile probe nearly two years ago".
There is no joy in libville mighty Mueller has struck out! I believe I called this one 3 years ago.
Anon123
Anon123   |     |   Comment #158
And yet it was a very fruitful investigation resulting in 199 criminal charges, 37 indictments or guilty pleas, and 5 prison sentences. That's just the direct ones so far. There are also cases he had referred to others which are being worked on and will produce further convictions. And then there is all the help he is going to give Congress in its own investigations. Sure, for some charges there may not have been enough evidence (remains to be seen!), but this "witch hunt" surely produced a lot of witches, most of which (in US) are in Trump inner circle.
Patriot
Patriot   |     |   Comment #163
Anon123, you just repeated the MSM lies they have been pounding your brain for 2 years now. All lies and all are irrelevant charges and all "crimes" committed are from a decade ago under the obama administration.
Just wait few more months when all of those traitors under obama get charged with REAL crimes, come then and comment again.
Anon123
Anon123   |     |   Comment #191
Give me example of a single MSM lie I said? And then prove it's a lie. And no you can't use Pravda and Breitbart as your source, comrade.
VideoClip
VideoClip   |     |   Comment #167
Anon123, I found the info in a video montage where you have been brainwashed by the media, here it is, please listen to the end, you will learn what was this all about.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AZRetNm70Ik
Diogenes
Diogenes   |     |   Comment #169
Guess this means #163 and #167 can go back to Russia now :-) as well as bugger off regarding their anti-MSM BS.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #171
I love it now here comes the spin and pivot move. No "collusion" is now a proven fact so they pivot to: "but there were indictments". Guess what Mueller couldn't find any collusion(because there was none) so his next mission became trying to find anything he could to indict any Trump associate with. This was done in order to cover up the real conspiracy which was the deep state and the fake Russian dossier. This phony investigation has cost the taxpayer over 25 million dollars and Democrats are not done yet folks they plan too keep on spending your money and adding to the debt with more bogus investigations into Trump.
Anon123
Anon123   |     |   Comment #190
"real conspiracy which was the deep state and the fake Russian dossie"? Clearly Breitbart and Fox Trump TV has brainwashed a bunch of people around here. Give me a break. And btw, just because there is CHARGEABLE offense of collusion that was found, it does not mean it did not happen. Just so you know... I am sure it will blow you mind. And those indictments are quite real too, whether you like it or not. Trump has had more criminal advisers that any President before him... Not surprising to anyone.
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deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #197
Anon you talk about people being brainwashed by Fox news which has become considerably less conservative over the years but they are the only ones who got the collusion story right(aside from conservative talk radio). Meanwhile the rest of the MSM - MSNBC, CBS, ABC, NBC, PBS, CNN etc. got it wrong for over 2 years. Being a independent thinker I watch/listen to everything and make up my own mind. I don't need or want to be told what or how to think.
Hanks
Hanks   |     |   Comment #201
deplorable 1 #197, you wrote: "Meanwhile the rest of the MSM - MSNBC, CBS, ABC, NBC, PBS, CNN etc. got it wrong for over 2 years", my correction to that finding is simple, they did not get it wrong, they knew they are spreading misinformation, they were ordered to lies by the cartel, they introduced fake news and repeated them the same lies over and over, fully knowing it is a lie, but the media is in brainwashing business and the democrats who believed in those lies are now mentally ill or can not comprehend what happen to them, they used to cheer on every fake news, now they feel abandoned and lied to by the liars who make them believe that the lies were the truth.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #206
@Hanks: I was just being pragmatic. Even if you don't believe they were lying on purpose then you must believe they are incompetent at best. Either way the MSM looks pretty bad right now and Trump's claim about "fake news" is looking pretty accurate.
Serta
Serta   |     |   Comment #220
#206, there is no excuse of any kind for the MSM, they were on it from day one, they knew there is no collusion, they new they are spreading lies, stop beating around the bush, be man and say it as it really is, they are part of dully elected government removal and that is a treasonous act.
Jim
Jim   |     |   Comment #185
Diogenes, this is what the dems do to win elections, criminals to the bone, every one of them should be removed from congress for being there by fraud and sent to Russia.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GfgWsYoyB0w
willy12
willy12   |     |   Comment #137
I am the last thing from a bible thump-er you will ever find. However, there are some very good sayings in there.

"Beware of the false prophets, who come to you in sheep's clothing, but inwardly are ravenous wolves. You will know them by their fruits"

I exposed TRAX in another post. Now its time for Sam Kiggle.

A perfect example of a troll. But do not take my word for it. You will know them by their fruits.

Sam Kiggle | 43 minutes ago | Comment #122
Larry, if you paid attention, you would know there are still 4%, and 5% CDs. They just aren't actually available to more than 20,000 Americans.

So, thanks for your predictions, hope you got paid your two cents.
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Sam Kiggle | 2 minutes ago | Comment #132
Larry, I can't understand if you seriously don't realize you have been completely wrong or if your ego just won't let you admit it.
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Sam Kiggle | 45 minutes ago | Comment #121
Deplorable, what is funny is you and larry predicted 4% CDs after Sharonview already offered and ended its 4% CD. Yet you claim it as some sort of success.
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Sam Kiggle | 35 minutes ago | Comment #125
Willy, what's sad is you defend people who are persistently, arrogantly wrong, while criticizing people who were right.
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Sam Kiggle | 33 minutes ago | Comment #126
Larry, the problem with your "who knows I just guess" is that this year's slowdown was widely predicted, as a direct response to last year's $1.5 trillion debt financed short term boost in GDP. You can't learn if you don't even try.
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Sam Kiggle | 15 minutes ago | Comment #129
Deplorable, I can't understand why you take yourself so seriously.
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Sam Kiggle | 6 hours ago | Comment #99
Deplorable should join his friend RJM.
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TheDems
TheDems   |     |   Comment #154
Willy12, leave the posters alone, we all have different opinion on the same issue(s), you can not correct them to reply or post to your likings, this is what you should worry about:

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/david-horowitz-dark-agenda-satan-serpent/2019/03/23/id/908387/
DAFan
DAFan   |     |   Comment #161
Sorry to be off topic.

But not really, as you'all have once again managed to turn one of Ken's excellent blogs into an embarrassment for him, and this great website.

You DO realize that this is a *Savings Account* website? How can the commentary section of such a simple financial site, that mainly deals with savings & cd interest rates, how can these forums turn into such a vile, disrespectful, and occasionally threatening place?! It makes no sense. The internet has become a great study for psychologists.

I have legitimate questions to ask. Financial concerns. Need ideas. But am forced to use several different usernames because all the crazies come out with the disparaging vile remarks! Unbelievable! Enjoy your little "club", folks, but sadly it's a sick one. ( I CANNOT believe that death wishes & death threats are beig defended??!) Respectfully suggest you find a new hobby. Seriously. Don't allow money to rule your life. (But addicts rarely change.)

I have banned myself. Thanks to Ken & staff for all the great research and helpful articles. It's a shame the forums are ruined by a crazy few.
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obviously
obviously   |     |   Comment #168
you dont know who's who
Bill Barr
Bill Barr   |     |   Comment #172
Since when did it become the FED's job to prop up the stock market?
anonymous
anonymous   |     |   Comment #174
Where have you been? FED's job or not to prop up the stock market, that is exactly what they have been doing for decades.

That is the main reason Greenspan always talked gibberish and still today the Fed only hints at their future moves as to not spook the stock market.

Their code talk leaves the media and the general public to decipher what their intentions are by picking apart the chairman's speech word for word. Having to do that is ridiculous!
Jim
Jim   |     |   Comment #186
anonymous, the FED was inserted into America to suck money from the sheeple without telling the sheeple the money are going to the globalists pockets. Create money with no cost, give it to the banks to lend it to the treasury and collect the interest for free money in perpetuity.
Hack, anyone can simulate the FED, they do not even let you audit them, yeah right, nobody is supposed to know who collects the interest, by order from the queen and Bank of England.
The FED knows you are not suppose to pay the principal back ever, it will create no demand for new money and the people will become free again (against the FED's policy).
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decades
decades   |     |   Comment #187
My gf is buying up 1 year treasury bills and getting 6%. She is in the Philippines . Trouble is the inflation rate is 5%. Starting to feel this is a game you can't win .May have to fire up the lending club operations again.I've been able to make a consistent 8.5% buying loans on the secondery market. Lot of work, need to get it automated . Friday I bought 3 month brokered cd from Fidelity for 2.35% for an estate account . BTW, I enjoy reading posts by the leadership here . I consider the leadership to be QED , Deplorable1 and Bozo.
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TruthFinder
TruthFinder   |     |   Comment #196
This is a just a small list of how the media lies to the Americans and continue to brainwash the democrats who really believe those lies:
https://dailycaller.com/2019/03/25/media-russia-collusion-mueller-report-fake-news/

I have lists of hundreds of lies said by MSNBC, CBS, ABC, NBC, PBS, CNN and many more that all in all I have calculated that there are 800+ lies said to the watchers/listeners. Now tell me that the brainwashing is not real?
Americans are bombarded with media lies 24/7 and most of them never correct the lies or issue an apology at 4AM when nobody watches them.
Julius
Julius   |     |   Comment #198
I agree with your findings, I've noticed the same pattern of media lies when ever a GOP news is about to be announced, the lies that follow are outrages and disgusting to listen to. Trump is right, the MSM is people's enemy by spreading derogatory info and far far far from the real truth.
If you can tuned them out, good for you, if not, just take the news with a grain of salt, because most of the times you are hearing lies and biased propaganda to serve the democrats and never the republicans.
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #199
Well hopefully with this latest no Russian "collusion" bombshell a few more people will wake up from their coma of complacency and start asking questions like "why have I been lied to daily about president Trump for over 2 years now?". Either way it's good news for the country to have all this talk of impeachment over with.
larry
larry   |     |   Comment #203
d1 the congress is voting on the "The Green New Deal" tomorrow and now AOC is complaining that it's a bluff-vote. Maybe it's 93 trillion dollar price tag over 10 years with no way to pay for it!
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #205
@Larry: I don't like the Republican's idea of having this bluff vote to make the Democrats look like fools. We don't need a vote to prove that. With our luck the Democrats will call their "bluff" along with a few RINOs and all vote for it and stick us in a 70% tax bracket. I wonder who told Cortez she would have never figured it out.
Bantta
Bantta   |     |   Comment #207
deplorable 1, I know who put AOC and the democrats up to this, the globalist/socialists, deep state operatives and the FED, imagine the FED's pockets printing $100 trillion dollars forever and ever, we will run out of digits for the national debt number, I guess one quadrillion dollars in debt at no time and the dollar will fall to like one tent of one penny in value.
Another thing to remember, who wrote the phony Trump dossier, Mr. Steel a MI6 ex person, who created MI6, the queen of England, who controls the FED, the Bank of England, do you see the connections, I do, there are no coincidences if you can dig dipper, the connections are there.
h_meister
h_meister   |     |   Comment #214
The queen of England, who controls the FED..., do you just make this stuff up or do you read this in some conspiracy site? Seems as wacky as 'articel' in the the National Inquirer or AOC's Green proposal.
The FED
The FED   |     |   Comment #215
h_meister, you need to do some digging, yes the FED is controlled by bank of england and the bank of england is controlled by the queen.
The FED is the only for-profit corporation in America that is exempt from both federal and state taxes. The FED takes in about one trillion dollars per year tax-free and sends it to the globalists around the globe, who in return control societies and governments around the globe including the USA.
It is not obvious to the common person because it is all done undetected by the cover up to keep the Americans in a guessing game. I'll give a short cut to a web site to start you with your research for the truth.

https://www.facts-are-facts.com/news/the-federal-reserve-is-privately-owned
GIO
GIO   |     |   Comment #216
h_meister #214, here is some real history to read, because the schools and the media are forbidden to teach or even mention where the FED collected money from the Americans goes:

https://www.hannenabintuherland.com/europe/the-federal-reserve-cartel-the-eight-families-who-own-the-usa-the-rise-of-bis-imf-world-bank-dean-henderson-on-free21-org/
Start searching
Start searching   |     |   Comment #222
h_meister 214, you must be a democrat or their supporter, otherwise you would have found out by know who controls the FED, it is true, the Bank of England has majority shares in the FED's private ownership and the Queen has majority controlling shares in the Bank of England. There, now you know, if you are still skeptical, go to UKs web sites (far from the americans) and do a deep search, there are thousands web sites were they claim what I just wrote.
Patriot News
Patriot News   |     |   Comment #223
start searching is right!

And, MI6 (UK CIA) controls the QUEEN!
larry
larry   |     |   Comment #210
d1 I doubt many will be voting for it because it would be political suicide. She cost the State of New York and NYC over 25k well paying jobs by chasing Amazon out of town so I doubt she has any political clout or backing at this point. That 70% tax you refer to is on income above $10 million. Obviously that would not generate enough income to cover the greed deal costs which then would cause them to start working their way down the totem pole to average ever day Americans. I think that is what you are worried about?
deplorable 1
deplorable 1   |     |   Comment #211
I was just joking Larry. I know this has 0% chance of passing the Senate no matter what. Whenever they talk about taxing "the rich" I always cringe because I know they will never stop there it will always trickle down to the rest of the tax brackets as well. It has to because you could tax the rich 100% on income and it still wouldn't be enough to fund their Socialist programs.
dollarsncents
dollarsncents   |     |   Comment #204
Keep dreaming. As long as President Trump is in office, the obsession with "getting Trump" will never be over for the Democrats. Hopefully, for the sake of our country, 5 years and several months more of agony for the Demorats.
Bantta
Bantta   |     |   Comment #208
dollarsncents, that democrat's nightmare they created will come to an end very soon, I can not comment how, but take my word for it, the real justice is coming back to bite the democrats. Think of FISA declassify, all of the democrats fingerprints are on it, just watch and wait little longer.
RATES
RATES   |     |   Comment #218
D1-They are their own worst enemies....Just watch. They will implode.
Silvia2
Silvia2   |     |   Comment #200
How true #196, the truth always wins and I'm sad that I witnessed the biggest scams perpetrated by the democrats on America.
I just read this article in NYPOST, worth your time to see some real truth:

https://nypost.com/2019/03/24/we-should-all-be-celebrating-the-collapse-of-hillarys-big-lie/
Apology
Apology   |     |   Comment #209
I did not see any democrat to post here and apologize to the bashing they did for 2 years and more. The democrats on this blog were venomous against Trump in all posts, now they are nowhere to be found, in that case, I will post an apology to our president in their names, here it is:

https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/435552-apologies-to-president-trump
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Serta
Serta   |     |   Comment #219
This is how the democrats bribe their way into office, once in, they conveniently forget about it or will say the congress was opposing it and they never take the blame for anything. I do not know about you, but federal money going to brainwashing schools is against my wish. If we do not do anything about it, this country is doomed by the controlling freaks, who continue to turn the young into socialists.

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/kamala-harris-campaign-promise-teacher/2019/03/26/id/908703/
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Fed Says It’ll Be Patient on Rates - CD Strategies for 2019

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The above sentence has been replaced in the January FOMC statement by the following:

All voting members voted for today’s policy decision. There were no dissents.

In addition to the change in the FOMC statement, the Fed issued a separate statement on balance...

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This policy action was an unanimous decision.

There are signs in both the FOMC statement and in the FOMC projections that future rate hikes will be fewer and more gradual than this year.

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The economic overview in today’s FOMC statement was very similar to the September statement. There were only two changes. The description of the unemployment rate went from “stayed low” to “declined”. The other change was the “growth of business...

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The Fed moved as expected by raising the federal funds rate by 25 basis points. This is the third Fed rate hike of 2018 and the eighth rate hike since the Fed started to raise rates in December 2015. Here’s that all important paragraph in today’s FOMC statement:

This paragraph is shorter than it has been in the past. The Fed removed the sentence about monetary policy remaining accommodative.

The opening paragraph in the FOMC statement that describes the state of the economy is essentially the same as what was...

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As expected, no policy changes were announced today at the end of the two-day FOMC meeting. The Fed decided to hold off on a rate hike, but slight changes in the FOMC statement point to a higher chance of two more rate hikes this year (which will likely come in September and December). For example, the Fed’s description of the economy went from “solid” to “strong”:

June FOMC statement:

Today’s FOMC statement:

Also, the Fed’s description of household spending went from “picked up” to “grown strongly”:

June FOMC statement:

Today’s FOMC statement:

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