Timing I-Bonds Purchases For 2023

JWARREN
  |     |   69 posts since 2017

I'd appreciate thoughts on timing I-Bond purchases for next year. I plan to over-pay income taxes with my January 17th quarterly estimated tax payment to get a $5K paper I-Bond refund. Any insights on when might be an optimal time for purchases for my personal and trust accounts: purchase all in January or spread purchases through out the year?



Answers
CuriousDave
  |     |   233 posts since 2018
That depends on your personal expectations of changes in the fixed and inflation components of the composite interest rate. If for instance you believe that within the next 12 months inflation will diminish and the current fixed date of 0.40% will not change, and assuming you already have liquid funds to invest the maximum for 2023 for both yourself and your trust, would it not make sense to start earning the current composite rate of 6.89% at the earliest possible time - January - rather than leaving interest on the table by spreading out your personal and trust purchases over 12 months - and possibly also earning a lower rate on your purchases made after April 30th if the May 1st rates are lower?
MAKNYC
  |     |   323 posts since 2015
Not sure why no one else is suggesting this, but what’s the point of buying in January? It seems the obvious answer is the last two weeks of April 2023. It’s during that period that you will know with certainty what the first full 12 month holding period will yield (after the April CPI is announced). And investing in late April will yield the exact same returns as a January investment, only on a lagging basis and with the benefit of knowing certain returns just mentioned. Additionally if cashing out at some point is a possibility, the April investment date still makes sense as you will earn some premium savings rate today until late April before investment. At some point in the future if rates/inflation return to near zero and make continued holding of these unattractive you will receive those unattractive yields earlier than under an April investment and you gave up the chance to earn todays higher yields.

The only long shot reason I see for investing in January is if you think the rules relating to buying these will somehow be changed with no warning and prevent you from an April purchase.
IGR
  |     |   580 posts since 2020
People with the "insights on when might be an optimal time for purchases" are busy running $500B Sovereign Funds, instead of lurking here to speak on $5K personal investments.

Start from your premises;
1.unless there is a crazy logistic of filing 1040-ES on 17th and 1040-IRS on 19th, you'd be giving interest free 3-months loan to US Treasury, that would cost you about 1% of the next year Unrealized Interest.
2. cumulative interest earned over 12 months period does not depend on the number of purchase, rate only changes twice.
your true answer is
"That depends on your personal expectations of changes in the fixed and inflation components of the composite interest rate", it is a little bit sketchy afterwards. No need to believe that "current fixed" rate of 0.40% will not change. it is an eternal fixed rate that will not change for the life of purchased Bonds, even when "current" rate is 0.004% or 1.4%. No need to believe "the next 12 months inflation", you will know by mid April 2023.
There is a need to understand that "the current composite rate of 6.89%" would not apply to your purchases.
The only certainty that would apply is the guaranteed return of about 3.55% over 12 months.
Because I agree "that party may be over" especially in the hype part of it, I'll be waiting for next April to make my mind and possibly to split 2023 purchases by end of April and end of May ones. Somehow I think that Inflation year-over-year rate will subside but fixed rate will be doubled to near 1%. That will make I-Bonds more difficult yet more intriguing proposition.
Choice
  |     |   937 posts since 2020
Bought my last series of ibonds as gifts in mid-October, the train has the left the gift station…the Q is whether to deliver in 2023, 2024, or buy for present delivery in each noted year. I do buy ibonds in early January for business and trust accounts to start the 12 month clock running and to time redemption with anticipated income level for year. Otherwise mostly maxed out!
IGR
  |     |   580 posts since 2020
Yeh, I am facing absolutely the same @Choice. Driven by Hype and Greed bought gifts from and to myself.
Have no idea now how to shed them before it terns into money losing purchase.
I wonder how TD restricts Gift Transfer where recipient registration is already maxed out. Who is going to get punished, Giftor or Giftee.
Wonder how TD can insist that Giftor must know Giftee allowance before gift turns into penalty.
Choice
  |     |   937 posts since 2020
No wrongdoing if deliveries (as mine are) limited to 10k a year
IGR
  |     |   580 posts since 2020
How come? Do you know how it works, I don't and hence wondering
"The gift counts for that person's limit in the year in which they get the bond."
there if recipient has made $9,950.00 of Bonds purchases already or received $9,950.00 of Bonds as gift in the year and you are attempting or delivering "no wrong $10K"!
What does TD do?
How would you know the limit of $50.00 to do "no wrong"?
When you know "that person's limit in the year" you can make an adjustment.
When you control "that person's limit in the year" you Choice is either make a Gift or make a Purchase. Once Purchase is made you would have to hold on "deliveries" till another year.
Choice
  |     |   937 posts since 2020
The recipient would need a TD account for delivery of a gift…thus ask when/if they have plans for the year in question when asking about TD account status.  The Q is what you should do, ie what you can control.
IGR
  |     |   580 posts since 2020
What's the point?
Common Choice, level with me!
Hard to imagine, but we all know how it suppose to work in theory. We know the theory because we try to take an advantage in real life. I know what you can control, because I control the same.
"The Q" was how it works in real life?.
In real life, If I want to Gift you I-Bonds, I would need to know your SSN number to create the registry and make a purchase. I wouldn't have an access to your TD Account, you'd hope.
In real life, when I attempt to deliver the gift and realized that you failed to share with me your phone number, or I don't want to bother myself talking to you(as a real life example) or decide to make a surprise gift (as another real life example). Who's fault is it going to be? Who gets the punishment, me as careless Giftor or you as unsuspecting Giftee?
GreenDream
  |     |   358 posts since 2019
"I wouldn't have an access to your TD Account, you'd hope"

No, but you'd still need to know their TD Account number in order to gift per the TD website:

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/savings-bonds/gift-a-bond/

"To give an electronic savings bond to someone else, you must know that person's

Full name
Social Security Number (or Taxpayer Identification Number)
TreasuryDirect account number"
IGR
  |     |   580 posts since 2020
it keeps going and going...
Stupid Troll or poorly programmed Bot.
Speaks for Everybody on Every subject.
It is not your conversation, SHUT that Green Hole
Nobody needs "TreasuryDirect account number"
"to create the registry and make a purchase."
GreenDream
  |     |   358 posts since 2019
I'll have to go with you are a stupid troll because not even a poorly programed bot is as ignorant as you've proven to be. This is a publicly open forum that anyone who wants to can reply, you don't get to decide who is allowed to speak. You want a private conversation, you have to take it to private message.

"Nobody needs "TreasuryDirect account number"
"to create the registry and make a purchase.""

I know you have trouble with the English language as the numerous typos and gabled grammar in your many pointless posts have shown, but TD makes it very clear you need the account number in order to *deliver* the gift, you can't make a "surprise gift" that puts someone over their annual limit without it (There's no "surprise" without delivery and an undelivered gift has no effect on the purchase limit), thus making all your questions about "who gets the punishment" for going over the annual limit moot if you don't have the account number!..
IGR
  |     |   580 posts since 2020
it keeps going and going...
it insults now the definition of " publicly open forum".
Public means homo sapiens.
I'll let Public to decide if that is Homo..
and how much of this is Sapient.
GreenDream
  |     |   358 posts since 2019
IGR the stupid troll just keeps on trolling along. Ho hum.
IGR
  |     |   580 posts since 2020
it keeps going and going...
GreenHole it is.
boringly predictable, poorly programmed and the use for nothing
ngcoogh.
GreenDream
  |     |   358 posts since 2019
IGR the stupid troll just keeps on trolling along attributing to others it's own bad behaviors. Ho-hum indeed.
Kaight
  |     |   1,192 posts since 2011
JWARREN:

Cannot tell you what to do. Am able to share my own plans:

Will be purchasing my first tranche ($10,000) close to the end of January at TreasuryDirect.

Like you will overpay my last estimated tax payment by enough to ensure availability of $5,000 for second tranche courtesy of Form 8888. Will then e-file my taxes ASAP thereafter in hope of beating May first rate reset.
CDmanFL
  |     |   286 posts since 2019
Just wondering, will it even be worth it to buy I Bonds in 2023? I’m starting to think that party may be over. Would love to get everyone’s thoughts.
Kaight
  |     |   1,192 posts since 2011
For those of us with an IRMAA dilemma, I bonds have a certain allure.
I shall be buying my little share of them for the remainder of my life.
CDmanFL
  |     |   286 posts since 2019
For those without an IRMAA dilemma, I’m debating whether it’s really worth it given the restrictions and only $10K maximum. I may do it just for the heck of it but quantitatively speaking I’m not so sure it will amount to much more than what can found in the CD market especially if inflation is really going down. (We know it’s not really going down but hey that’s a different story)
CuriousDave
  |     |   233 posts since 2018
If you have traditional IRA funds looking for a home, consider buying TIPs through a broker and holding them through maturity. 5-year TIPs are currently yielding around 1.60% on top of inflation (source: Bloomberg) compared with the 0.40% for I Bonds, which cannot be held in an IRA account (because they can be bought only through the U.S. Treasury) and have very low maximum annual purchase limits (versus no maximum for TIPs bought through a broker). Some brokers offer them free of fees/commissions but unless you order initial issues of TIPs you will probably overpay for them as brokers usually make a market for them (buy and sell their own TIPs inventories, with spreads between their bid and ask prices). Why In IRAs? Because unlike I Bonds, interest on TIPs are not tax deferred until redemption. The coupon rate (currently around 0.60%, per Bloomberg) is paid out every 6 months, the inflation component accrues but both are fully taxed annually as ordinary interest income under the “Original Issue Discount” rules that require bond holders to pick up both the coupon interest and the inflation growth ratably over the life of the bonds. Traditional IRA accounts will shelter the yields from tax until distributions are taken.
For savers in low tax brackets there may be no advantage to holding TIPs in traditional IRA accounts except that cash from some other source will not be needed to pay the annual taxes on the inflation growth (some call it “phantom” income).
w00d00w
  |     |   360 posts since 2012
if you intend to hold the I bond for a short period of time (5 years or less), i'd suggest buying early in the year to start the clock on the 1 year minimum and 5 year penalty-free redemption holding periods.

if you intend to hold the I bond for the long term, getting a higher fixed rate becomes more beneficial. waiting on some I bond purchases until after the May and November fixed rate resets, hoping for more than 0.4% could payoff in the long run. unlike the inflation component, the fixed rate on the I bond is unknowable until it's announced.


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