The Shut Down And Interest Rates: Any Nexus?

Kaight
  |     |   1,192 posts since 2011

With things going along well for the American economy, and with interest rates picking up seemingly everywhere (see Ken's blog), I got to wondering who is unhappy with such a situation and what are they doing about it.

OK, the Democrats cannot be happy about America's financial revival since all the credit goes to Trump, whom they hate. There was not a single Democrat vote in Congress for tax reform, so they are unable to claim even a scintilla of credit for the good news.

But much more importantly:

Q: What can they do about this unwelcome situation?

A: Shut down the government over a matter (immigration) totally unrelated to budgets, etc..

Ken has stated, correctly in my view, that the rising stock market is supportive of higher interest rates for us savers going forward. Ken believes a steadily advancing stock market will tend to draw money out of financial institutions (i.e., banks and credit unions) causing them to raise interest rates in order to hang onto their deposits and attract new deposits. Hence let's ask:

Q: What does the stock market abhor as much as anything?

A: Uncertainty

Yes, the very same sort of uncertainty contributed to vigorously by an unwanted and unnecessary shut down of the Federal government.  We see the Democrats are quite creative in bringing about the demise of, or at least mitigating, the ongoing positive trend in the American economy . An important part of this is negative stock market impact. Ensuing halt to rising interest rates will be merely collateral damage.

So do the Democrats care if the current positive economic trend is derailed? Not at all. A nearly stagnant American economy suited them just fine for eight years under the previous administration. They will be delighted to see things get back to, what is for them, "normal".




Bozo
  |     |   1,375 posts since 2011
Kaight, politics aside, your average family will no doubt "feel better" when they (a) open their year-end 401K/IRA statements and (b) see more take-home pay in February. With respect to (a), those year-end statements, year-over-year gains in equities have been off the charts. No dispute. It's called the "wealth effect". When folks feel richer, even if they haven't pushed the "sell" button, they tend to spend more. With respect to (b), ditto.

While I might disagree with Trump's persona, it usually comes back to the economy and personal perceptions of wealth (or lack thereof),
Bozo
  |     |   1,375 posts since 2011
Further to my comment: Assume Joe and Jane (your garden-variety two-income, two kids, suburban family) are told on December 31, 2016, that their stock investments in their respective 401K/IRA accounts would go up by roughly 25% in 2017* and their take-home pay go up $400/month in 2018. Would Joe and Jane be more likely to purchase a new car, re-model the kitchen, and/or take on debt to accomplish same. If your answer is "all of the above", you've nailed the "wealth effect". Economists call this the virtuous cycle.

*Lest you question, VTSAX (Vanguard's Total Stock Market Index Fund (Admiral)), was 56 and change EOY 2016 and 70 and change Friday's close. The dividend was roughly 1.75%. Do the math.
Kaight
  |     |   1,192 posts since 2011
Well Bozo, Trump's persona is what it is. He is surely something of a prick at times. I did my undergraduate work at a college full of people like that . . . from the outer boroughs of NYC. They are a special lot and you just have to become accustomed to them. They are quite smart in the main. And they were tough competition for me, a VERY rural person back then (and still today), I can assure you of that. Anyway, with that as part of my experience, Trump's persona bothers me less than it might annoy others. It's nothing to which I've not already been exposed.

Trump, BTW, lest there be any confusion in the above, is a Queens boy at his origins. Years before he ever was close to anything political, Trump attempted to move up to Manhattan, building his Trump Tower there and so much else. But Trump was never accepted personally by the Manhattan elites, always being regarded by them as a lower class Queens type. He remains unaccepted by them today, but now with an ample measure of hate mixed in. You see, as an undergrad Trump did not attend one of their Ivy League colleges. Heck, that's a key reason he is such a great POTUS!! :-)
Bozo
  |     |   1,375 posts since 2011
"You see, as an undergrad Trump did not attend one of their Ivy League colleges."

Did somebody kick Penn out?
h_meister
  |     |   32 posts since 2014
Re post secondary education, in 1964, Donald Trump began his higher education at Fordham University. After two years, he transferred to the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania where he graduated with a degree in economics . Three of the president's college age children also graduated from Ivy league Penn with bachelor's degrees.
Bozo
  |     |   1,375 posts since 2011
With regard to Penn football, after a shaky start, Penn finished the season with wins over perennial powerhouses Brown, Princeton, Harvard, and Cornell.
Kaight
  |     |   1,192 posts since 2011
Thank you, Bozo, for correcting what I wrote earlier. Of course I was aware of Trump's Wharton degree, but I wrongly thought it to be a graduate degree. I was not aware he transferred out of Fordham. And of course I'm aware Penn is part of the Ivy League.

While I had the details wrong, I continue to believe the nature of Trump's education marked him, in Manhattan, as inferior to their standard. Giving a certain trade school taint to his studies, Trump majored in real estate His undergraduate degree also was apparently an end unto itself, and falls short of an undergraduate course of study leading to, for example, Yale law, Harvard business, or Princeton international affairs. In Trump's favor, I suppose, he attended Penn and not Brown. ;-)

Finally to be clear, I do not personally find any fault with Trump's education whatsoever.  He is the only POTUS ever to have graduated from Penn.  I like that.  And I would bet he never gained admission, either at Fordham or at Penn, as a foreign student.
Bozo
  |     |   1,375 posts since 2011
Kaight, some might give a nod to William Henry Harrison, ninth President of the United States, who studied medicine at Penn (until he apparently got bored). Harrison is somewhat of a legend, as his death only a few days after taking office led to the first succession crisis. Who can forget "Tippacanoe, and Tyler Too". John Tyler took office upon Harrison's death, and proclaimed himself "President", not "Acting President."


The financial institution, product, and APY (Annual Percentage Yield) data displayed on this website is gathered from various sources and may not reflect all of the offers available in your region. Although we strive to provide the most accurate data possible, we cannot guarantee its accuracy. The content displayed is for general information purposes only; always verify account details and availability with the financial institution before opening an account. Contact [email protected] to report inaccurate info or to request offers be included in this website. We are not affiliated with the financial institutions included in this website.