US Treasury Notes Now More Attractive Than CDs?

steved
  |     |   24 posts since 2014

I just did a bit of research comparing CDs with US Treasuries. With the rise in interest rates, US Treasury note rates compare very favorably to CDs.

Here are the most current rates:

Term Rate

1 year 2.00%

2 year 2.21%

3 year 2.38%

5 year 2.63%

Even better, interest on treasuries is exempt from state and local taxes. Here’s the equivalent yields if you live in a typical tax state (5% tax rate) and high tax state (10% rate):

Term Rate Equivalent (5% state tax) Equivalent (10% state tax)

1 year 2.00% 2.11% 2.22%

2 year 2.21% 2.33% 2.46%

3 year 2.38% 2.51% 2.64%

5 year 2.63% 2.77% 2.92%

With taxes taken into account, for most people treasuries offer better returns than all but the best CDs.

Treasuries also have some big advantages over CDs:

1. You can sell treasuries in roughly $1K increments. If you want to cash in a CD, you generally must redeem the entire CD.

2. You definitely can sell a treasury whenever you want. Your legal right to do an early withdrawal on a CD varies from bank to bank, and is often unclear.

3. Treasuries are guaranteed by the US Government in any amount. There’s no $250K FDIC limit.

4. You’ll never need to chase the highest rate from bank to bank. Treasuries have the same yield everywhere.

5. You can invest in treasuries with highly competent companies like Schwab and Fidelity. Many of the banks that offer the highest CD rates have poor customer service.

The only advantage that CDs might have is if you are doing an early withdrawal. The penalty for CDs is always a certain number of months of interest, regardless of how much time is left in the term or how much interest rates change. In contrast, treasuries will drop in value if interest rates rise. This “early withdrawal penalty” will be roughly the change in interest rates times the years left in the term. For example:

• If interest rates stay the same, there is no early withdrawal penalty.

• If you buy a 1 year treasury, want to cash it in after 6 months and interest rates have gone up .25%, you will pay about a .125% penalty (about 3 weeks).

• If you buy a 5 year treasury, want to cash it in after 3 years, and interest rates have gone up 1%, you will pay about a 2% penalty (about 9 months).

• If you buy a 5 year treasury, want to cash it in after 3 years and interest rates have gone up 2%, you will pay about a 4% penalty (about 18 months)

I would say short-term treasuries will usually be better than short-term CDs if you want to do an early withdrawal. If interest rates rise significantly, though, longer-term CDs will have the advantage over longer-term treasuries.




jib2424
  |     |   34 posts since 2014
You make some excellent points here. I think an argument can be made that treasuries are even a better deal in states that have no state income taxes. Treasuries are a direct obligation of the United States. This is much better than FDIC or NCUA insurance. You do not have to deal with the poor customer service of the banks and the credit unions. Personally, I like TreasuryDirect where you can buy treasuries directly from the US government. I am thinking of going back to buying treasuries from TreasuryDirect rather than buying CDs ( which I switched to when the interest rates being paid by treasuries dropped so low after the financial crisis hit). Please give me your thoughts on this.
alan1
  |     |   880 posts since 2015
You can buy Treasury securities through TreasuryDirect, but you cannot sell them through TreasuryDirect. You will be stuck with them through maturity, unless you transfer the securities elsewhere. To transfer the securities, you will need to complete and submit FS Form 5511. You do not want to complete and submit form FS Form 5511.

If you know that you will hold Treasury securities to maturity, regardless of your personal financial circumstances and regardless of changes in interest rates and other economic factors, then TreasuryDirect is a suitable way to purchase Treasuries. But if you might want or need to sell before maturity, I'd suggest you consider purchasing them elsewhere.
Ricochet
  |     |   522 posts since 2010
Tempering the enthusiasm for alternate products is wise considering the base audience of this community
alan1
  |     |   880 posts since 2015
Depending on interest rates and other factors, Treasury securities can be an excellent alternative to CDs. I'm one of the members of the audience who has no interest in reading about preferred stocks, common stocks, ETFs, mutual funds, municipal bonds or corporate bonds on this site. Easy enough for me to ignore them.

But comments about Treasuries and U.S. savings bonds, enthusiastic or not, are of interest. I haven't checked steved's arithmetic, and I disagree with some of his comments, but I think the post is an excellent contribution. It's worthwhile for CD investors to pay attention to what's going on with Treasury securities.
Ricochet
  |     |   522 posts since 2010
My comment was centered ( too picky i admit ) on the first 2 sentences of steveds' post. I submit a copy/paste as I read more than I know

If inflation rises, the value of your Treasuries investment may decline. This is called inflation risk. Consider, for example, that you own a treasury bond that pays interest of 3.32%. If the rate of inflation rises to, say, 4%, your investment is not “keeping up with inflation.” Or to put it another way, the real value of the money you invested in the bond is declining.
You’ll get your principal back when the bond matures, but it will be worth less.
steved
  |     |   24 posts since 2014
Very true, but this is also true of CDs.

Longer term CDs do have the advantage that if inflation (and therefore rates) spike, the EWP may end up being less than the drop in value of the treasuries (assuming the bank allows early withdrawal)
jib2424
  |     |   34 posts since 2014
alan1,
I have not bought treasuries through TreasuryDirect for several years. The last time I did, TreasuryDirect provided a method to sell the treasuries through TreasuryDirect. When did this change?
alan1
  |     |   880 posts since 2015
jib2424 -- effective December 17, 2010
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/news/pressroom/pressroom_com112010.htm
steved
  |     |   24 posts since 2014
I've always found TreasuryDirect to be a bit of a pain. Major brokerages like Fidelity and Schwab allow you to participate in treasury auctions (where you buy directly from the government) as well as secondary markets (which have extremely small spreads). They don't charge commissions to buy/sell treasuries in either market, so I'm not sure what the advantage of TreasuryDirect would be.
jib2424
  |     |   34 posts since 2014
Is there no cost incurred at brokerages like Fidelity and Schwab that is not incurred at TreasuryDirect?
steved
  |     |   24 posts since 2014
Not if you place your trades online
steved
  |     |   24 posts since 2014
I'd be interested to know the counterargument to this. I'm thinking of shifting funds away from CDs (and corporate bonds) to treasuries. It seems like an easy decision, but I wonder if I'm missing something.
alan1
  |     |   880 posts since 2015
I think you've listed almost all of the factors involved. Whether it's an easy decision for you, or anyone else, is not known to me. But there is one difference between new issued fixed rate CDs and new issue Treasury securities that you did not mention. When you buy a new issue fixed rate CD, you know what the rate is. That is not the case with Treasury securities.

I believe that most individuals who buy new issue Treasuries choose not to submit competitive bids. If you submit a noncompetitive bid, you'll get the same rate as the highest accepted competitive bid -- but you won't know what the rate is until the auction results are announced. And if you choose to submit a competitive bid, your bid might not be accepted.

I'm not suggesting that this should play a role in determining whether to purchase new issue Treasuries. Just that it's something purchasers should be aware of.
CSample
  |     |   7 posts since 2016
Great idea and summary. One thought that isn't as important in an increasing interest rate environment (but we never know when circumstances change) is should interest rates decline, you would get an early withdrawal "bonus" in the form of a premium selling price with Treasuries if you needed your money early. Good luck trying to get a bank or credit union to pay you a premium to cash in your higher-than-market rate CD.
jib2424
  |     |   34 posts since 2014
I'm thinking of shifting, too. I live in a state with no state or local income taxes. Does shifting to treasuries make sense for me too?
alan1
  |     |   880 posts since 2015
It makes sense if the return is equal to, or greater than, what you can get on a CD for that term. (It can also make sense to accept a lower return from Treasuries, if you need to keep your adjusted gross income or taxable income below a certain amount for any number of reasons.)

If part of your reason for considering switching to Treasuries is convenience and avoiding hassles with banks and credit unions, you might consider CDs (new issue and secondary market) available through a brokerage.
jib2424
  |     |   34 posts since 2014
How do the interest rates on certificates of deposit from a brokerage compare to the interest rates on certificates of deposit direct from banks and credit unions?
steved
  |     |   24 posts since 2014
In general they're mediocre. Also, brokerage CDs can not be redeemed early. They can be sold, but the market is not very liquid.

Here's Fidelity's chart that compares the rates on all their fixed income options

https://fixedincome.fidelity.com/ftgw/fi/FILanding
Bozo
  |     |   1,375 posts since 2011
jib2424, the simple answer is probably : "no". Without a boost in Taxable Equivalent Yield from the state/local tax exemption, the benefit of a Treasury is reduced. In effect, the Treasury yield becomes directly comparable to the rate and term of a CD. Then, of course, there's the issue of dealing with TreasuryDirect. Treasuries make sense most for folks with high state and local income taxes.
Bozo
  |     |   1,375 posts since 2011
I addressed this issue some weeks back in the thread "Have You Checked Your Taxable Equivalent Yield Lately?"
steved
  |     |   24 posts since 2014
Just an FYI as I research this more: There is a big cost difference between Schwab and Fidelity for buying/selling treasuries. Fidelity's bid/ask spread is pretty large for orders of less than 100 bonds ($100K). It appears that Schwab makes its own market and offers much better prices for these smaller trades.
slovokia
  |     |   8 posts since 2017
I'd also add that there is a cost to moving your money around between banks when trying to get the best CD rates. It is easy to lose a few days interest if one is not careful how one moves ones money. When investing money for the short term those days of lost interest can add up and make an attractive short term CD less attractive if one accounts for the lost interest. Investing in treasury securities via a broker that does not charge for auction orders and has competitive interest rates on idle cash balances avoids the lost interest drag on moving money around.


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