Another Week Of Highs For T-Bills...And T-Notes Are Now Getting In On The Action

rockies
  |     |   295 posts since 2018

Treasury bills and notes had another week of rising rates. I was doing some analysis for myself and was struck by the magnitude of what is going on. So, I thought I would formalize and share here.

T-bills of all terms hit new highs during the week, except for the 1-Month. Additionally, the 2-Year note hit a new high while the 3-Year note is closing in on its high. Here is a quick summary as of close of the market on Friday, February 24.

T-Bills - 6 out of 7 terms hit new highs during the week; the 1-Month missed, but came close

1-Month 4.68%, within 2 bps of its 4.70% high set on 1/24/2023

2-Month 4.83%, a new high, finished at this level 3 times this week

3-Month 4.86%, a new high, finished at this level twice this week

4-Month 5.02%, a new high

6-Month 5.06%, within 2 bps of its 5.08% high set 2 days ago

1-Year    5.05%, within 2 bps of its 5.07% high set twice this week

T-Notes - 1 high and 4 big surges since February 1st

2-Year 4.78%, a new high surpassing the 4.72% high set on 11/7/2022

3-Year 4.52%, a whopping gain of 77 bps since 2/1, only 14 bps away from the 4.66% high set on 10/20/2022

5-Year 4.19%, up 71 bps since 2/1

7-Year 4.10%, up 67 bps since 2/1

10-Year 3.95%, up 56 bps since 2/1

Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates

https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treas...




sams1985
  |     |   781 posts since 2022
I really think we may see 5% brokered non-callable 60 month CD's in early March. Those of us that missed out in November may very well get a second bite at the apple. Don't get greedy this time!
Ally6770
  |     |   4,310 posts since 2010
I have a 5 yr. Roth maturing in July paying 4.2% that I have to split because it will be over the insurance limits. Hoping rates are not lower for CD's. But more important hoping that food prices will go down for those that in need. Food, shelter and health is what is really important.
But also thinking that we should be SO THANKFUL that all our plans with Ken's daily help has worked for all of us for many years since he had BANKDEALS.COM.
JeffinEasternFL
  |     |   744 posts since 2020
I hope so, still need a 5%+ 4 year Jumbo CD and even a 3 year Jumbo CD possibly (?) for my ladder or I will perhaps keep that 3 year's $$ liquid (currently 4.34% APY and will still rise with rate increases this year) for more FUN Fed surprises later should longer term (over 5 year) rates get attractive (?).

My next Jumbo CD's won't mature for me until summer '24 (just 3.03% APY- EWP is stiff 730 days so not worth it to cancel early , even with the tax advantage, thus I take that interest quarterly and move it to the liquid money market at 4.34% APY). Also hold Jumbo CD's for Spring '25 (5% APY compounding), and Winter '28 (5.05% APY compounding) maturity. My I bonds don't reach 30 year maturity until beginning of 2031-37 so they keep ticking tax deferred nicely!

I don't see inflation getting to 2% regardless of rates with such a labor shortage in the USA and Europe. Too much wage pressure as well as food costs clearly outpacing everything else. Energy won't get cheaper as 2nd/3rd world just increases overall demand and far outstrips earth's measly production of available clean natural gas and decades left of oil.

Doublespeak by lefti$t$ in charge of D.C. have held the Fed back but, for how long? "Transitory" is fast becoming a joke that telling the Fed they shouldn't be fooled twice by rhetoric!  

Here in FL, the restaurants are full (even on Monday/Tuesday), the planes coming in are full, highways, airports are (record amounts) crowded (nobody is slowing down below 80 mph either due to gas at $3.25~ gallon), lines at theme parks, etc., are LONG and help wanted signs are everywhere! Don't believe any media hype of "hard times" it's NOT TO 2009! 


Question is will the Fed believe media/market pundits that keep puffing or see reality?? 


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