CPI-U Report Out Tomorrow

Steve58 | May 9, 2023 | 460 posts since 2018

The March CPI-U report released last month was approximately 75% of the average 2012-2019 month over month rate change. If the CPI-U rate is equal to the average 2012-2019 month over month rate, then the inflation over the last 10 months is 2.17%, or 2.61% yearly rate. Including tomorrows CPI-U report....

A. If the CPI-U reports are equal to 75% of the average 2012-2019 month over month rate change for each of the next 3 months, then the June year over year inflation report will be 2.41%.

B. If the CPI-U reports are equal to 100% of the average 2012-2019 month over month rate change for each of the next 3 months, then the June year over year inflation report will be 2.59%.

C. If the CPI-U reports are equal to 125% of the average 2012-2019 month over month rate change for each of the next 3 months, then the June year over year inflation report will be 2.77%.

D. If the CPI-U reports are equal to 150% of the average 2012-2019 month over month rate change for each of the next 3 months, then the June year over year inflation report will be 2.96%.

E. If the CPI-U reports are equal to 200% of the average 2012-2019 month over month rate change for each of the next 3 months, then the June year over year inflation report will be 3.32%

Cannot see how we are not under 3% inflation year over year when the June report is released in July.

Steve

4

sams1985 | May 10, 2023 | 781 posts since 2022

Looking forward to your post CPI analysis !

4

choice1 | May 11, 2023 | 372 posts since 2023

And DA is deleting posts! WHY?

1

GH1 | May 10, 2023 | 1,058 posts since 2017

We will find out today.. Its not that low in my area in the south east

2

Steve58 | May 11, 2023 | 460 posts since 2018

The March CPI-U report released last month was approximately 75% of the average 2012-2019 month over month rate change.

The April CPI-U report released today was approximately 167% of the average 2012-2019 month over month rate change.

A. If the CPI-U reports are equal to 75% of the average 2012-2019 month over month rate change for each of the next 2 months, then the June year over year inflation report will be 2.69%.

B. If the CPI-U reports are equal to 100% of the average 2012-2019 month over month rate change for each of the next 2 months, then the June year over year inflation report will be 2.80%.

C. If the CPI-U reports are equal to 125% of the average 2012-2019 month over month rate change for each of the next 2 months, then the June year over year inflation report will be 2.90%.

D. If the CPI-U reports are equal to 150% of the average 2012-2019 month over month rate change for each of the next 2 months, then the June year over year inflation report will be 3.01%.

E. If the CPI-U reports are equal to 200% of the average 2012-2019 month over month rate change for each of the next 2 months, then the June year over year inflation report will be 3.22%

Today's report is lot worse than I expected. The overall CPI-U number was 0.5% for the month over month number. Food was 0.2%, Energy was 1.5%, with core number at 0.5% (used cars and trucks was biggest outlier at 4.5%, followed by airline fares at 2.7%, and motor vehicle insurance at 1.0%).

I now think that a 2.xx% inflation year over year number when the June report is released in July drops to around 60% .

Steve

2

Steve58 | May 11, 2023 | 460 posts since 2018

For those that want a deeper perspective... there were 4 main items that drove inflation for this April CPI-U number.
Gasoline: 5.22% (weighted value 0.173%)
Used cars: 4.54% (weighted value 0.117%)
Motor vehicle insurance: 0.99% (weighted value 0.026%)
Airline fares: 2.70% (weighted value 0.017%)

Without these 4 items set to 0%, the April month over month CPI-U number would have been 0.174% instead of the reported 0.506%. This would have put the CPI-U report at only 57% of the April 2012-19 average. Those are definitely the heavy hitters for the month.

I blame Biden energy policy and the push for electric cars for the latest inflation. Everyone is buying up all the used ICE vehicles while they can because they cannot afford the new stuff, including the new 6 million unexpected visitors to the country.

Steve

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