CD Interest Rates And The Election

Kaight
  |     |   1,095 posts since 2011

The American voting public, writ large, has the attention span of a gnat. Thus by November is appears likely a great many of Biden's obvious failings as POTUS will have become forgotten, or at least will no longer be front of mind for many voters.

Trump has his own many problems and shortcomings, to which it now appears we might soon be able to add Taylor Swift.

Bottom line I'm having a really tough time being able to predict a winner in November's POTUS election. This is a problem because, in my view, the next POTUS will have an impact on CD interest rates.

Should Biden prevail, I'm thinking he will try to go right back to the sort of deficit spending he clearly favors while of course the border remains wide open. And as a lame duck there will few if any restraints on his innate proclivities. In my gut I associate a Biden victory with higher CD APYs. I do not want to be caught holding longer term CDs should Biden be re-elected.

If Trump is the eventual POTUS election winner, I have an entirely different gut feel. I think CD interest rates are less likely to balloon with Trump in the White House. Thus with a Trump victory, savers who have locked in longer term 5+% APY CDs now will likely be doing rather well.

All of the above might be correct, or I could be off the mark and full of prunes. But my problem personally is inability to predict which man will be the eventual election winner. So I'm left "splitting the baby" and buying CDs having maturities of intermediate length. It's a conundrum.




CDmanFL
  |     |   251 posts since 2019
Let's not forget that Trump demanded the "boneheads" at the Fed to plunge interest rates into negative territory. What kind of fool, Democrat or Republican, would say such a thing? It's ridiculous, alarming, and mind-blowingly stupid. I'm not a Biden fan, but if Trump is elected, ZIRP (and possibly worse) here we come again. For that reason and that reason alone, I'm supporting Biden. I'm fearful that Trump would destroy the yield curve as well as the plans and livelihood of us savers. With all due respect, I would love for the Trump supporters here to explain their feelings on his former request to take rates negative. Maybe I'm missing something, but those countries who experimented with negative rates have miserably failed that experiment.
deplorable_1
  |     |   1,240 posts since 2020
I think Trump was just venting because his predecessor BHO had the advantage of having interest rates at 0% for 8 years. He also may have been trying to point out something that I have been saying for a very long time that the FED may not be quite as "independent" as they would have us believe. Anyway people read way too much into that comment because lets face it in reality interest rates went up during Trump's presidency not down. There was even talk of taking rates NEGATIVE prior to Trump's "surprise" winning that election. So that plan should Hillary have won would have been put into motion.
CDmanFL
  |     |   251 posts since 2019
Brother D1, I hope you’re right that Trump was just venting and not serious. I must admit that his comment at the time freaked me out.
Steve58
  |     |   165 posts since 2018
Any one that votes democrat is a dam(n) fool. Voting democrat for the possibility of higher interest rates is a vote for the destruction of our economy. Deficit spending is all in vogue for democrats. Interest on the debt is higher than Defense spending. Wasting money is their thing (see any of their bills passed the last 3 years). Selfish much? You might enjoy higher interest rates, but at what cost? Higher inflation? Meaning you will be losing in the long run. And it will bring an end to your way of life.

Not saying the Republicans are any better, but at least they might fix the border chaos brought on by the liberals in charge now. They might actually make the world safer again. They might get us out of wasting money on the Green revolution sought by the globalist/fascists who hate American freedoms and our way of life and seek the destruction of our economy. They might make our streets safer from the insane policies of liberal democrats.

If you can't vote for Trump, I can understand. If you can vote for Biden, I can't understand. My recommendation is to vote 3rd party for president and suck it up and vote republican on the rest of the ticket. Else we have you to blame when it all falls apart. And your money will not be safe, I don't care what kind of guarantees of government safety you think your CD investment has.

Last warning to you fools...Steve
sams1985
  |     |   607 posts since 2022
Steve,
I can't get myself to vote for Trump or Biden at this point. Unfortunately, both parties don't represent the American people very well, only obeying their corporate oligarch overlords while pandering to us(Trump being the biggest charlatan of them all) None of them are serious about deficits(or any of the stuff you mentioned) and it has show in the last 24 years.
betaguy
  |     |   154 posts since 2022
as in most elections, it usually comes down to voting for someone as a way to vote against the other candidate.
deplorable_1
  |     |   1,240 posts since 2020
Trump didn't even attend the Republican debates that should tell you he's not really a part of the uniparty system.
Steve58
  |     |   165 posts since 2018
Sams,
As in my post you replied to, you can see I am in the same boat you are. I do not like either candidate or party. Neither party is fiscally conservative, including Trump. I vote on fiscal issues. Deciding where to put your X on the ballot comes down to this on fiscal issues...which party is more likely to:

Raise taxes across the board (democrats)
Increase inheritance taxes (democrats)
Push for reparations (democrats)
Push for cancelling all student loans without fixing the high cost of education (democrats)
Push for Medicare for all including illegals(democrats)
Push for free child care (democrats)
Push for guaranteed income. (democrats)
Push for increase in welfare, food stamp availability. (democrats)
Push for more illegals to surge the border and to be subsidized by tax payers (say 10 million each term) (democrats)
Push to waste more money on green energy subsidies (democrats)
Push to decrease drilling for natural gas and oil (democrats)
Fix social security and medicare (neither party)
Increase regulations on everything. (democrats)

All these are destructive to a healthy economy and our country. And lets not even get started on social issues.

Steve.
Sanger
  |     |   134 posts since 2022
Hi for me it is country first we are losing our country as we know it, we did not have these problems when Trump was in office the wars going on and the open borders. And inflation it is all out of control I am still working at the age of 68 years I have a business for 45 years, so I am not planning on retiring any time soon because I really like what I do so if Trump gets back in office, I think we will be much better off if Biden gets another term are taxes are going up big time so I rather have lower interest rates if need be to save our country I just got back from a Trump rally in Las Vegas Nevada the energy there was amazing for me it is about saving our country we will see very soon the election cannot come soon enough .
Kaight
  |     |   1,095 posts since 2011
In light of the OP I do not find "I'm for Biden" or "I'm for Trump" posts very helpful or constructive. Obviously the country is badly split and feelings run hot on both sides. I understand that.

This thread is about who will win; it's not about who you hope will win or why. This is because, as I opined in the OP, I honestly believe CD interest rates could be impacted depending on which of these guys bests the other.

We all have our fervently held hopes for the election outcome. But who actually is gonna be the victor in November? That's the question here.
Steve58
  |     |   165 posts since 2018
Sorry to have gone off topic OP,

"But who actually is gonna be the victor in November? That's the question here."

Answer: The American people if republicans win the house, senate, and presidency.

And for now a Trump win seems more likely until the deep state goes after Trump again.

Why Trump will win (at this point): Look at today's polling results in swing states at Realclear politics just posted.

Arizona: +3
Gerogia: +8
Michigan: +5
Nevada: +8
North Carolina: +10
Pennsylvania: +3
Wisconsin: +5

These are astronomical numbers at this point, and the numbers are even better if you poll with third party candidates.  If you are a gambling man, go with the betting odds.  Right now the betting odds have Trump at 43.8% of winning the presidency, Biden at 32.3%, Michelle at 8.6%, and Haley at 4.2%.

Why Trump won't win (closer to the election): The deep state will fabricate another lie near election time, just like last time (my wild donkey guess, tied to Epstein). Also the fed has been in the pocket of democrats and the deep state, so they will lower interest rates at a quicker pace closer to the election, causing a boom in the stock market almost assuring Biden re-election.

Steve
Kaight
  |     |   1,095 posts since 2011
Thanks, Steve, good and helpful analysis.
milty
  |     |   235 posts since 2018
Biden +6 (Quinnipiac). Regardless how it goes, claims of some deep state collusion favoring only the democrats is not only ridiculous but totally unfounded, which of course is why Trump supporters believe it.
Steve58
  |     |   165 posts since 2018
Outlier national poll. In that same poll with 3rd party candidates, it only has Biden by +2. So there is that.

If i had my head in my sand, I wouldn't believe in the deep state either. As a well read independent voter, it is easy to understand just how bad the deep state actors are embedded in the Government. But that deep state discussion would be better suited for another forum.
deplorable_1
  |     |   1,240 posts since 2020
What no takers? Nobody want's want's to put themselves out there subject to massive DA ridicule in case they get it wrong? lol I don't blame you...Well if that's the question then I would plan for a Trump victory and as such Trump's policies would most likely be focused on lowering inflation and closing the border ;). The thing is you have to balance that with a pro growth business agenda which can also be a bit inflationary. So now you get into predicting interest rates far into the future which is a difficult task to say the least. My best guess is that ZIRP would be behind us and FED rates would fluctuate between 3-5%. This would take us back to the pre-Obama norm. There is also the possibility of higher interest rates at least for a time if we get a large economic surge due to Trump's policies. It happened before so it's not all gloom and doom on the interest rate front if Trump is re-elected.

Disclaimer: I'm not a paid financial advisor I do this for fun I get paid $0 for it. Any decisions you make based on any prediction by me or anyone is solely your responsibility and I am in no way liable for any poor decisions you may make based on anything I say. Thank you -DP-1 
CDmanFL
  |     |   251 posts since 2019
Never want to hear about or live through another ZIRP experience again. Brutal times. I like your 3-5% guess. That would work for both savers and debtors. It would be balanced and fair.
deplorable_1
  |     |   1,240 posts since 2020
The only way I could see ZIRP returning is if the Democrats win everything in November see Steve58's post above. No way are those type of policies sustainable long term. I vote based 100% on policy not personality, likability, race, gender, what the media thinks of one candidate or another, climate change or any other reason you can come up with.

Now with regards to interest rates specifically ask yourself which party was in control when ZIRP was implemented? Which parties policies led to the implementation of ZIRP and QE? Which party presided over the longest period of low interest rates? Just a few things to consider if you are voting just based on interest rates alone. Personally I would never vote just based on one issue alone but many people do.
milty
  |     |   235 posts since 2018
Don't forget to ask yourself which party was in control when the banking and real estate businesses started collapsing, and which party was in control when Covid didn't go away by Easter. Economic policies are of course important but not at the expense of democracy or the truth. Having the trains run on time is simply not worth it.
deplorable_1
  |     |   1,240 posts since 2020
Touche milty but remember policies once implemented have a lag factor before their full effects are known both good and bad. Sometimes the lag factor can be long take ZIRP for instance. For a while it seemed like inflation was a thing of the past but I think we can agree that ZIRP is a contributing factor to today's high inflation. So what caused ZIRP? The housing crisis. What caused the housing crisis? Bad policy of giving anyone with a pulse a $0 down loan. This is why I focus on policy rather than the individual or even the party.
JeffinEasternFL
  |     |   749 posts since 2020
Like the Fed leaned today, it IS an election year so I expect rates to decrease LESS than the pundits mentioned and probably will end the year .50 ~ bps less than originally thought, but, ...who cares, what will be, will be. just always be prepared for the unexpected.
Kaight
  |     |   1,095 posts since 2011
Understood. But again, it's not pre-election interest rates that are the focus here. It is instead where interest rates will be headed after January 20, 2025.

My goodness, people buying into five year CDs today are making a commitment all the way out to 2029!!  Personally I lack the prescience needed to make a bet that big.
JeffinEasternFL
  |     |   749 posts since 2020
My thought: Nobody can predict (but, can guess at least) interest rates THAT far out, too many variables! My feelings: if you can lock in money at 5% + for over 2 years, DO IT! (Why not?). I laddered a Jumbo CD maturing starting  this year and Every year through 2028 at 5%+ APY!

I did that starting late 2022/early 2023, the interest income has been "Tumptastic" one might say! (close to $60K annually). Been a long time since that's been on my tax return and not bad for the "fixed income" portion of my portfolio!
betaguy
  |     |   154 posts since 2022
My feelings:
If you truly believe the "deep state" stuff, How can you expect rates to ever be meaningfully above 5%. They will be controlled and suppressed just as they are now. I always try to buy CDs as far out as possible (5% and over).
JeffinEasternFL
  |     |   749 posts since 2020
It's/they are at about the highest rates of the century, what's to bet against?
DannyKyle
  |     |   29 posts since 2022
If Biden (Fake It Until Make It) wins again = Invest in BRICS
If Trump (Slutty Mouth) wins again = Invest in US$
Kaight
  |     |   1,095 posts since 2011
Quinnipiac is a well established polling organization; been around for a long while. Drudge, who favors Biden, is trumpeting their latest head-to-head poll this morning. In something of a turnaround, it has Biden up by six:

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3889

Lady voters are hating on Trump something fierce and capsizing his ship. As for me:

With money to place right now in new CDs, and with news like this, I'm definitely NOT looking to go out five years. It's a no brainer for me.
In fact, I'll go a step further:

If the Democrats somehow gain control of not just the presidency, but also both houses of Congress, it's gonna be Katie bar the doors!!  Interest rates could go very high, and I do not want to be locked into a CD requiring payment of a penalty to break.  That could happen either this year or in 2026.  When you are locked in until 2029 it doesn't make a lot of difference!!
Steve58
  |     |   165 posts since 2018
Nice, if you want to risk all your CD picks on one outlier national poll. National polls mean far less than battleground state polls, if you can believe any poll that is.

What is risky is putting all your eggs in one basket (decision). A ladder approach is a better solution, so locking in some long term CDs above 5% is a no brainer IMO.

It is like having the door plug fly off of the 737 max plane and owning Boeing stock. All your eggs in that basket was disastrous for your finances. The same goes with the economy. If the economy is hit with anything disastrous, the Fed WILL lower interest rates quickly (dare I say ZIRP) to rescue the economy. That is the new normal. All in (long or short term CDS ) one way or the other is not a strategy, it is gambling, and a gamble I am not willing to make.

Good luck with that one...Steve
racecar
  |     |   209 posts since 2014
I may be in the minority, but I think most people vastly overestimate how much any President can affect the economy. A president's actions might affect it somewhat around the edges, but to me, History, Cylcles, and World Events will absolutely eclipse the impact that a particular president might have with the economy directly.

When Trump was in office (pre-COVID) a friend constantly crowed to me how great the stock market was doing because of Trump. I called it BS then -- just as I call it BS now as a different friend brags that stocks have reached even greater heights because of Biden. Economies have cycles.

What shakes an economy? World events. Under Trump, a worldwide pandemic. Under Biden, multiple wars, including an invasion of a soverign country in Europe.

When gas prices go up under President X, the other party's members shout and blame.
Then when gas prices go up under President Y, that other party's members shout and blame.
But President X or Y don't cause gas prices to go up, and people here on DA should be smart enough to know that. World events and other factors (wars, regional conflicts, shipping attacks, refinary fires, supply & demand, pure greed) are what screw with gas prices. A president can try to mitigate a price spike by releasing oil from the SPR for instance, but that's mitigating it afterwards, not the cause.

There will always be fallout from history and major world events, and a President can act to minimize its negative impact. But everytime I see people attach all the blame, or all the credit, to whoever is in the white house, I roll my eyes and ignore it.

I know who I will vote for, and who I will not vote for. But I also know that, while a president isn't completely impactless on the economy, it's a drop in the bucket compared to external factors and world events that will happen, regardless of who is in the white house.

So, to come back to the OP, I don't know if it's worth the worry lines to try to guess who will be in the white house and upend one's long-term financial planning based on that. I'd look much more at world stability/instability. But it seems like you balanaced things and split them down the middle, which is probably a good way to go -- especially because even if one guesses correctly, that doesn't always mean conventional wisdom will happen! (look at stocks vs bonds over the last couple years).
P_D
  |     |   366 posts since 2020
"But I also know that, while a president isn't completely impactless on the economy, it's a drop in the bucket compared to external factors and world events that will happen, regardless of who is in the white house."

Right now the things that are happening to the economy in both America and around the world are highly impacted by the wars that have erupted over the last few years. How much of those wars are the result of a weak and ineffective US foreign policy which is the responsibility of the US presidency?

No nation has more influence on world events than the United States. And no individual has more influence on the policies that affect world events than the US president.

So I don't think you can discount the influence the US president has on global events that affect the US economy. Just because many of the events aren't within our borders does not mean the president does not have significant influence over them.
milty
  |     |   235 posts since 2018
Congress also has significant influence and the power of the purse, when and if it chooses to do its job. For whatever reason, Americans have let themselves be shielded from these forever wars while our debt spins out of control.
Mak
  |     |   264 posts since 2011
The Trumpers blame the democrats, the judges, the FBI, the election workers, the jurors and anyone else they can blame, they're all in on it, to get Trump, but the one person that is really responsible for Humpty Trumpty taking a great fall is Humpty Trumpty.

Humpty Trumpty sat on his throne
milty
  |     |   235 posts since 2018
Don't forget the Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce conspiracy to rig the Superbowl and then promote their super support for Biden.
Mak
  |     |   264 posts since 2011
U.S. economy added 353,000 jobs in January, much better than expected
Boom shakalaka
P_D
  |     |   366 posts since 2020
Democrats job "growth" strategy. Impoverish everyone so they are forced to take multiple jobs and put their 5 year olds to work to survive and then count them as "added" jobs and boast about it.

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/9730/r7lAip.jpg
Mak
  |     |   264 posts since 2011
I should actually check that with your history of making up headlines but I'm not going to but if that's true, good for them, just like I suggested, instead of whining about it like some people I know at least they're doing something about it......it seems like there's plenty of jobs out there.

Btw, that could be part of it too, maybe they wanted second jobs before but none were available at a good wage but now it seems like pay has gone up and some people might have decided to take advantage of that..... always more than one possibility.
P_D
  |     |   366 posts since 2020
Here's some more "made up" headlines for you to check.

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/646/6zRDUm.jpg
Mak
  |     |   264 posts since 2011
Again, if true at least they're doing something about it instead of whining. I know my son is doing fine and my friend's sons are doing fine ...you might want to take a second job yourself and then you won't have as much time to worry.
deplorable_1
  |     |   1,240 posts since 2020
Stop being so lazy in Biden's economy you need 10 jobs mon!....lol ; )
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Opq8YCkFV9sA comedy show that was actually funny unlike SNL.....ahhh the good old days.
deplorable_1
  |     |   1,240 posts since 2020
You mean the liberal dynamic duo aren't voting for Trump? I'm shocked....shocked I tell you. lol Who cares who any celebrity is voting for?
P_D
  |     |   366 posts since 2020
"Again, if true at least they're doing something about it instead of whining. I know my son is doing fine and my friend's sons are doing fine ...you might want to take a second job yourself and then you won't have as much time to worry."

Here we go with the left's Banana Republic "Let them eat cake!" argument again.

Steak too expensive because of their inflation? No problem. Just eat beans instead. And when they get too expensive you can always eat your lawn.

Can't pay for the basic necessities anymore with one job? No problem just take a second job. Oh that's still not cutting it? No problem just take a third job. STILL not cutting it? No problem. Will give you your welfare stipend and sign you up for the breadlines.

And stop whining! You know humans were cave dwellers for 200 thousand years.

They're just fine with dumbing down your quality of life and pushing their let them eat cake agenda down your throat.
milty
  |     |   235 posts since 2018
"Trevor Noah dug up the following Trump quote from a 1999 New York Times story by Maureen Dowd:

'My entire life, I've watched politicians bragging about how poor they are, how they came from nothing, how poor their parents and grandparents were. And I said to myself, if they can stay so poor for so many generations, maybe this isn't the kind of person we want to be electing to higher office. How smart can they be? They're morons.'
"
https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/news/a42946/donald-trump-poor-people-morons/

Of course, you can find the actual NYT Maureen Down story if you want to, but in the meantime let them eat cake. So, who's your daddy now?
deplorable_1
  |     |   1,240 posts since 2020
Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they aren't out to get you.
Sanger
  |     |   134 posts since 2022
Hey deplorable_1 you said that dynamic duo isn't voting for Trump, so they are voting! for a commander in chief that has Dementia that tells you all you need to know about these guys by the way Mak sure can get nasty seems like he has a lot of free time maybe he needs to go get a job maybe two again for me it will always be COUNTRY FIRST since we are brothers have a great day .
milty
  |     |   235 posts since 2018
I think you got that backwards regarding Dementia . . .
https://www.usatoday.com/videos/news/2024/01/30/trump-says-he-aced-cognitive-test-after-confusing-nikki-haley-with-nancy-pelosi/72317458007/

Oops!...He did it again.
Mak
  |     |   264 posts since 2011
Just as I pointed out.... Sanger is upset because at 68 he still has to work, said so himself, deplorable is upset because his job got outsourced, said so himself... they blame the government and the democrats for their situation instead of blaming who's really at fault.....themselves.
deplorable_1
  |     |   1,240 posts since 2020
Don't try to psychoanalyze me Mak I don't even need a job or want one. When life gave me lemons I made lemonade and sold it at a profit. Now you on the other hand seem to try and lump every Trump supporter into some kind of liberal fantasy mold of being unintelligent. The problem you have is that most of us don't fit into the media's stereotype of the hillbilly Trump supporter with missing teeth living in flyover country. I realize this must present a real conundrum for you. It must mean that your media is lying to you...so what else have they been lying about?
Mak
  |     |   264 posts since 2011
"Now you on the other hand seem to try and lump every Trump supporter into some kind of liberal fantasy mold of being unintelligent."

Not true, There are probably quite a few smart people on this blog, I think P_D is intelligent and adds a lot to the blog except when he starts with his biased political comments.. I find 111 to be intelligent also, I just don't agree with his view of Trump but at least he doesn't try to shove it down anyone's throat.... I will admit that I know some smart people that support Trump and that surprises me. I used to blog at a stock blog but after Trump I saw a different side of some of the people I had been blogging with for over 10 years, the Trump supporters were wishing death on people, racism,  hoping for a civl war, anti-semitism, rooting for Russia and much more.... on the other side, the Biden guys, never went there.

The only reason I even bring up anything about Biden or Trump is because first of all you guys initiate it and I have a problem with people putting out bullshi* as if they're facts so I counter with the other side and I don't have to make up fake headlines to do it and I don't look under every rock of a website to try and find something to corroborate my statement.

I apologize for calling you and Sanger doofuses, Sanger started calling me names a while ago and finally I decided to give it back to him, the only reason I included you was becauseI thought you were brothers, kind of...:). and when I called you morons, what I should have said is I think your comments are moronic, that would have been a better way of saying it.

Btw, I do still stand by my diagnosis.
deplorable_1
  |     |   1,240 posts since 2020
Talk about a backhanded apology. Ok Mak please explain how it was MY fault that my job got outsourced? That is a pretty ignorant statement to make even for you. I was in a highly specialized skilled trade not working on an assembly line. No robot replaced me! The only person in the entire political realm Democrat or Republican to ever address that issue accurately was Trump. And he brought back many of those jobs that were outsourced in manufacturing. The rest of the uniparty just said: "Oh well sucks to be you....I guess you just picked the wrong career...oh just go back to college and learn a different career" basically a verbal finger. Kind of like you and your "let them eat cake I got mine attitude". Guess what those jackasses work for me! Not the other way around. So I reinvented myself and learned computers, investing and various savings strategies to create an income that was bullet proof. Not even covid could destroy my income streams. I am no longer dependent on any company or job or the government for my income. So if you are scratching your head and can't figure out why most of the country still supports Trump no matter what lies and distortions the media and other politicians on both sides throw at him. It's because he wasn't afraid to tell it like it is no matter who he offended. The truth doesn't care about your "feelings" or your interpretation of it and sometimes the truth hurts.
sams1985
  |     |   607 posts since 2022
I’m tired of the blatant ignoring of facts when it comes to trumpers and the absolute hypocrisy and spin. It’s like a cult. Almost like the guy could shoot someone on 5th avenue and these people would spin it around. The claim that outsourcing stopped under Trump is just laughable. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2020-10-22/supply-chains-latest-the-hard-data-on-trump-s-offshoring-record
deplorable_1
  |     |   1,240 posts since 2020
Look I can give you sources all day long and you will say: "That's a right wing/ fringe/ Fox news website" etc. etc. Well all your sources are Left wing websites. I don't need a source for my own opinion which is why I'm not playing that game.
sams1985
  |     |   607 posts since 2022
Opinions are not facts. And Data from the Dept of labor is left leaning? I'm not even blaming Trump here...the president is one man. He can't change the entire globalist capitalist economy. This is not a right vs left issue. It's just cognitive dissonance and delusion. Trump secured the border(exept for all the hundreds of thousands of crossings during his presidency) Trump didn't outsource jobs(except for the hundreds of thousand reported by HIS dept of labor..Trump wouldn't cause inflation(except he said himself the solution is just to keep printing money) Trump wouldn't return to Obama's failed ZIRP policy (oh, that's right he wanted the FFR to be negative!) Trump did this, trump did that, etc  (except he didnt). I wish you all would just come out and openly say the real reason you blindly support Trump.
Mak
  |     |   264 posts since 2011
Everything you said was fine and if you reinvented yourself, good for you, that's what you're supposed to do and that is what I meant, if you don't reinvent yourself it's your fault not the governments fault but it doesn't change the fact that you were angry at the government and blamed them at one time and from your own comment just now it sounds like you still are angry and you still blame them.

All good EXCEPT for this part "no matter what lies and distortions the media and other politicians on both sides throw at him", this is where we disagree, you think everyone is out to get Trump when it was really only Trump that got Trump.

I said what kind of people are mainly Trump people and why I think those people are willing to overlook anything Trump does, I won't repeat them.
deplorable_1
  |     |   1,240 posts since 2020
I don't blame the "government" but I do however blame bad policies which led to the outsourcing. You guys overlook any bad policy as long as it was made by a Democrat now that's a cult. The free trade agreements were made by both parties and that's what did it. I never said Trump was perfect but I'll take him any day warts and all over the rest of the field. If Trump was in office and we had inflation this high you would go nuts and you know what I wouldn't blame you.
Mak
  |     |   264 posts since 2011
I think Covid and the federal reserve had more to do with the inflation than anything else, the inflation doesn't bother me at all, the only thing that bothers me about inflation is the constant whining about it, I'm sorry I know you wish the inflation was having some negative consequences for me but actually just the opposite so far.
deplorable_1
  |     |   1,240 posts since 2020
I think ZIRP had alot to do with it and that was Obama's horse he rode it for 8 years. If Trump was in office this would be his inflation so now it's Biden's. I realize not 100% policies have a lag time but he bears some responsibility as does his party. For me personally inflation has been a mixed bag. I think it took high inflation to get the FED to move away from ZIRP and I'm making good money this year because of it. Even so the cost of everything is much much higher and very noticeable yet I'm making more to cover it and my expenses are low. But we are by far the minority as credit card debt is on the rise big time and the averages Joes can't even tread water living paycheck to paycheck. Remember the housing crisis? The next shoe is coming will it be credit card debt that is the catalyst this time around? What happened to stocks last time? You will care when the next crisis hits. Some of us on this forum are the rare birds who have savings. In my family i'm an anomaly.
Blade
  |     |   47 posts since 2018
On the original topic of the election and future interest rates... My guess is Biden would be best for higher future CD interest rates. Trump will always be a real estate man at heart. It's what he was raised with, made the bulk of his fortune with and knows best outside of reality TV. Real estate investing always thrives best with low interest rate loans. As such, I've always felt that colored Trump's feelings on interest rates during his term. He can't help but view rates as a real estate investor would as that's who he is at his core. Just some pop psychology for you! As usual, the election will come down to a handful of swing states and, since I currently reside in TX, it really doesn't matter who I vote for this time around. My state will go Republican yet again with or without me.
Kaight
  |     |   1,095 posts since 2011
Good comment. Thanks. As I wrote in the OP, my gut also associates Trump with lower rates. But I think your reasoning is better than merely my gut. I like it.
Kaight
  |     |   1,095 posts since 2011
It has been over a week since I posted the OP. I remain more at sea than ever in terms of being able to pick the election winner. The stupidity of Republicans was confirmed once again by ability of the D'crats to tie them in knots on this bogus immigration initiative. The D'crats are wildly better at politics than are the R's.

I have money to invest in CDs now and dearly wish I could arrive at a conclusion on this matter. It could end up being decided by our lady voters on the issue of abortion. The skillful D'crats will easily convince our American females that Trump will do away with their cherished right to kill their babies regardless the state in which they live. That aspect alone could be sufficient to turn the tide to Biden. Of course Trump will deny this. But many lady voters do not believe Trump. Period.

We are now less than one year away from inauguration day, January 20, 2025. So one year CDs beckon if it's gonna be Biden taking the oath once again.  And the APYs on one year CDs are quite good, too.  But should Trump somehow prevail instead, one year CDs are gonna stink out loud. So I'm looking one year minimum term length, going out longer provided the APY is decent. I continue to avoid five year CDs. The risk of a Biden victory is simply too high.


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