The top 3 CD deals for each term available as of 06/01/2024 are listed below: Information obtained from the DA “CD Rates” drop-down lists available here: https://www.depositaccounts.com/cd/. Please see link for details.
3-month:
1) 5.65% - Mutual One Bank
2) 5.51% - Total Direct Bank(25K minimum)
3) 5.50% - Shoreham Bank
6-month:
1) 5.51% - Total Direct Bank
2) 5.50% - 6 way TIE: Shoreham Bank, Vibrant Credit Union, Gateway First Bank, Flagstar Bank, Inova FCU, My Banking Direct
3) 5.4% - Merrick Bank
1-year:
1) 5.40% - NexBank
2) 5.36% - CIBC bank
3) 5.35% - Total Direct Bank
18-month:
1) 5.25% - 4 way TIE: Farmer’s Insurance FCU, Credit Human, CU of New Jersey, NASA FCU
2) 5.20% - State Department FCU
3) 5.15% - Notre Dame FCU
2-year:
1) 5.39% - Dover FCU
2) 5.36% - Amboy direct
3) 5.25% - 2 way TIE; Notre Dame FCU, Credit Human
3-year:
1) 5.75%* - Farmer’s Insurance FCU (Variable Rate* certificate tied to FFR effectively FFR +.25% spread)
2) 5.00% - Dollar Saving Direct
3) 5.00% - Superior Choice CU
4-year:
1) 4.70% - BMO Alto
2) 4.65% - Credit Human (36-59 Month CD)
3) 4.55% - Seattle Bank
5-year:
1) 4.80% - BMO Alto
2) 4.68% - Advancial CU (Jumbo 50k minimum)
3) 4.65% - Credit Human (36-59 month CD)
Trend Analysis:
Based on the April CPI data and this past week’s PCE data, it appears likely that the Fed’s first rate cut will be pushed out into the last quarter of the year, possibly into 2025. This should put upward pressure on CD rates. We have already seen the 5/10 year treasuries on a steady upward trajectory for most of 2024. This has caused long term brokered CD’s to steadily creep back, peaking this past week. Banks and CU’s have been a little more stubborn but should soon be forced to follow suit.
Until we see a definitive rate cut by the Fed, CD rates (both brokered and direct should continue to creep up or hold steady across the board). Once the Fed issues it’s first rate cut, rates will plummet off a cliff as we have historically seen after the initial cut. Since there is no sign of a rate cut happening anytime soon, I think we just might get one last peak and another shot at ~5% long term CD’s. This would be the 3rd peak of the cycle(November 2022, March 2023) and possibly 3rd and final chance of securing ~5% long term CD’s this cycle.
This assumes the CPI/PCE remains elevated and well above the FED’s 2% target as they both have been for most of 2024. There have been some upward surprises 2024 which has caused treasuries and Brokered CD's to creep back up after a substantial drop at the end of 2023.
However, if we see CPI/PCE fall substantially in the coming months and the labor market continues to cool, all bets are off and we may not get another peak and this rally will fizzle out. Time will tell.
Please stick to discussion of CD rates and avoid any political discussion in this thread. Thank you. Any comments in improving this page are appreciated and welcome.
