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About Ken Tumin

Ken Tumin founded the Bank Deals Blog in 2005 and has been passionately covering the best deposit deals ever since. He is frequently referenced by The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and other publications as a top expert, but he is first and foremost a fellow deal seeker and member of the wonderful community of savers that frequents DepositAccounts.


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Bank Deals Blog: Fed / Banking News

Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - May 21, 2019
Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - May 21, 2019

Fears of a trade war and its impact to the economy continue to worry the markets. The latest concerns about the effects of a trade war were published by analysts at Morgan Stanley. According to this Reuters article, the analysts warned that a “collapse of U.S.-China trade talks and hike in tariffs on Chinese goods would push the world economy toward recession and see the Federal Reserve cut U.S. interest rates back to zero within a year.” The tariffs could also increase prices which would push up inflation, but based...

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Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - May 14, 2019
Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - May 14, 2019

Growing concerns about the economic impact of a trade war along with additional weak inflation data have driven down Treasury yields and raised the odds of a Fed rate cut for later this year. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said the following in a recent interview with Reuters:

In addition to the risk from the tariffs, inflation data continues to be weak. On Friday, the Labor Department released April CPI data. Core CPI rose 0.1%, which was below the consensus of 0.2%. The Fed has maintained that low inflation data is...

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Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - May 7, 2019
Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - May 7, 2019

In last week’s FOMC meeting, the Fed reaffirmed its “patience” policy by holding steady with the federal funds rate target. The FOMC statement mentioned that the “economic activity rose at a solid rate.” Fed Chair Jerome Powell also painted an optimistic view of economic growth in his post-meeting press conference. The primary issue that may prevent future rate hikes is low inflation. The FOMC statement noted low inflation more than it has in previous meetings:

Fortunately for savers, Fed Chair Powell didn’t seem that concerned with the low inflation in the...

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Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - April 30, 2019
Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - April 30, 2019

The Fed’s two-day meeting started today. The meeting announcement is scheduled for 2:00 PM ET Wednesday. Following the announcement, a press briefing by Fed Chair Jerome Powell will take place. No rate change is expected at this Fed meeting. The “pause” period that began at the last Fed meeting will likely continue.

Last week’s better-than-expected GDP numbers should reduce the chance that the Fed will decide to cut rates anytime soon. However, inflation news on Monday appeared to have overshadowed the GDP news. The Fed’s preferred inflation index, the personal consumption...

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Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - April 23, 2019
Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - April 23, 2019

It’s almost time for another Fed meeting. The two-day meeting is scheduled to begin next Tuesday (April 30). No rate change is expected. However, there are now slight odds of a rate hike. The federal funds futures now show a 0.5% chance of a 25-bps rate hike. They show odds that are much higher (99.5%) that the rate will remain the same. I’ll have more on the federal funds futures below.

A slight rise in the Fed rate hike odds may be due to economic data that has been improving in...

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Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - April 16, 2019
Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - April 16, 2019

Last week’s release of the March Fed meeting minutes reinforces the likelihood that the Fed will continue its “patience” policy this year without any rate changes. According to the minutes, the majority of the Fed expects to hold rates steady in 2019:

However, there are a few hawks on the Fed who believe rate hikes could be necessary in 2019:

Inflation data from last week didn’t help make the case for rate hikes in 2019. Last week’s release of March Consumer Price Index indicated soft inflation that supports the Fed’s patience policy....

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Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - April 9, 2019
Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - April 9, 2019

The latest economic news came on Friday with the release of March employment report. The good news is that it was a strong report with 196,000 new jobs, a number that exceeded the consensus expectations. The February new jobs number was also revised higher to 33,000, a little better than the original weak 20,000 number.

The March jobs report should keep the Fed on course with its current “patient” policy in which it keeps the federal funds rate steady as it waits for additional data. Economist Tim Duy summarized his view...

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Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - April 2, 2019
Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - April 2, 2019

The recent yield curve inversion has increased concerns that a recession coming. We’ve been seeing minor yield curve inversions this year, but the inversion that first occurred on March 22 was more significant. In that case the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 2.44% at the close of March 22. That was lower than the yields of all the Treasury Bills (the 1-month was 2.49% and the 1-year was 2.45%). That finally ended yesterday. At the close of Monday, the 10-year yield increased to 2.49% while the 1-month fell slightly to...

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Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - March 26, 2019
Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - March 26, 2019

Last week’s Fed meeting went as expected with the Fed officially on hold with rates. The Fed described its current policy as being “patient as it determines what future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate may be appropriate.” The Fed also downgraded its assessment of the economy, and in its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) it downgraded its economic forecasts. Most relevant to savers was the downward revision of the dot plot. The median expectation for 2019 rate hikes is now zero. This was a big...

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Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - March 19, 2019
Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - March 19, 2019

The Fed’s two-day meeting started today. The meeting announcement is scheduled for 2:00 PM ET Wednesday. In addition to the meeting announcement, the FOMC forecasts will be released. These include the “dot plot” which shows the projections of future federal funds rates. Lastly, at 2:30 PM, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be holding a press briefing.

No rate change is expected at this Fed meeting. If that happens, it will be the first break of the Fed’s quarterly rate hike pattern. The Fed has been consistently hiking rates after every other...

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