About Ken Tumin

Ken Tumin founded the Bank Deals Blog in 2005 and has been passionately covering the best deposit deals ever since. He is frequently referenced by The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and other publications as a top expert, but he is first and foremost a fellow deal seeker and member of the wonderful community of savers that frequents DepositAccounts.


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Bank Deals Blog: Fed / Banking News

Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - July 5, 2022
Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - July 5, 2022

Signs that the economy is heading toward recession grew in the last week. The latest estimate of second quarter GDP was released last Friday by the Atlanta Fed. The estimate showed a 2.1% decline of the GDP in the second quarter. That follows a GDP decline of 1.6% in the first quarter.

Not all economic data is pointing to a recession. As described in this WSJ piece, “economic output is down but the job market is strong, unlike in previous recessions.” On Friday, the Labor Department will be releasing the June...

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Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - June 28, 2022
Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - June 28, 2022

Future interest rates will depend heavily on how inflation and the economy evolves this year. The Fed will want to see a series of declining inflation readings before it transitions to 25-bp rate hikes and then to no rate hikes. That won’t happen before its July 26-27 meeting. Another 75-bp rate hike is likely, and a rate hike of at least 50 bps is very likely.

If the economy is slowing, that could bring down inflation, and that may allow the Fed to transition to no rate hikes and eventually rate...

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Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - June 21, 2022
Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - June 21, 2022

The Fed’s 75-bp rate hike last week had the markets worried about a recession. The S&P 500 index had its largest weekly decline since March 2020. There is growing concern that the Fed’s inflation-fighting rate hikes will push the economy into a recession. Fed Chair Powell was asked about this risk in the post-meeting press conference. Here’s part of the Fed Chair’s reply:

When the markets realized that a 75-bp was going to happen, Treasury yields surged. Fed Chair Powell also was pretty resolute in his press conference in the need...

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Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - June 14, 2022
Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - June 14, 2022

Expectations for a 75-bp rate hike at this week’s Fed meeting shot up on Monday. Before Friday, it seemed that a 50-bp rate hike this week was almost a sure thing. Then on Friday, the May CPI report showed that inflation had risen more than had been expected. Other inflation data released on Friday and Monday showed that inflation expectations had risen more than expected. On Monday, the producer price index for May increased 10.8% on a year-over-year basis, a near record pace. After this inflation news and this Monday...

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Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - June 7, 2022
Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - June 7, 2022

The June Fed meeting is scheduled for next week, with the FOMC statement to be released on Wednesday, June 15th. Expectations are very high that the Fed will announce another 50-bp rate hike. This is one of the rare times in history when expectations are very high for the Fed to hike 50 bps at its next two meetings, and expectations are growing that the Fed will also hike 50 bps at its September meeting.

If the Fed does announce 50-bp rate hikes at its next three meetings, the target federal...

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Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - May 31, 2022
Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - May 31, 2022

The odds remain very high that the Fed will hike rates 50 bps at both its June and July meetings. Most of the uncertainty now is the Fed’s September meeting on September 20-21. The two most likely scenarios for this meeting are for the Fed to transition back to a 25-bp rate hike or to continue with its 50-bp rate hikes. It’ll take more economic data before we’ll have confidence in the Fed’s direction.

Inflation data in the next couple of months will be the one the primary drivers of the...

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Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - May 24, 2022
Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - May 24, 2022

Concerns about high inflation, rising rates and a slowdown in the economy have resulted in a large stock market decline. Due to these factors, the odds that the Fed might announce a 75-bp rate hike at one or more of its summer meetings have fallen considerably. It has also increased the odds that the Fed will transition back to a 25-bp rate hike at its September meeting. The odds that the Fed will go forward with two more 50-bp rate hikes in June and July remain high.

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Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - May 17, 2022
Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - May 17, 2022

The latest economic data and talk from Fed officials have raised the odds that the Fed will continue to increase rates by 50 bps at both the June and July meetings. The size of the rate hike at the September meeting remains questionable, and it will likely remain questionable until we get a couple more months of data.

If inflation data continues to exceed expectations like the April CPI did, the odds of a 50-bp rate hike or larger in September will increase. Both the CPI and the core CPI exceeded...

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Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - May 10, 2022
Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - May 10, 2022

At last week’s FOMC meeting, the Fed announced its first 50-bp rate hike since 2000. At the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Powell also indicated that this will likely be the start of a series of 50-bp rate hikes with two more occuring in June and July. Fed Chair Powell dismissed the possibility of a 75-bp rate hike by saying that the “75 basis point increase is not something the committee is actively considering.” The rate hike decision in September will likely be based heavily on how inflation and...

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Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - May 3, 2022
Federal Reserve, the Economy and CD Rate Forecast - May 3, 2022

The FOMC meeting will conclude on Wednesday with the statement scheduled for release at 2:00pm ET. Fed Chair Powell’s press briefing is scheduled for 2:30pm ET. Signs are very strong that the Fed will announce its first 50-bp rate hike since 2000. The Fed is also expected to announce the start of its balance sheet runoff.

Expectations are high that the May 50-bp rate hike will be followed by additional 50-bp rate hikes at several future meetings. In fact, expectations have risen that there will be a 75-bp rate hike at...

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